Came close to sweeping the slate but went undefeated with a 3-0-1 night on the NHL, winning 4.5 units yesterday. Tonight we have a seven game slate, let’s keep crushing it!
Sabres vs. Lightning (7:00)
The Sabres are an atrocious team. They’re 10-18-6, losing their last five straight games and only three wins in their last 19 games. They’re averaging 2.62 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and allowing the sixth most goals in hockey, an average of 3.47 goals per game. Tampa on the other hand, despite losing three of their last five games, the back to back Cup champs are very good at 23-9-5. They’re averaging 3.24 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL and allowing 2.87 goals per game. The first time these teams played this year, somehow Buffalo won 5-1 on October 25th. No fucking shot that happens again tonight. The -315 ML is way too pricey for me but I love the Bolts to win this one and will take them in regulation for 2.5 units.
Panthers vs. Canucks (7:00)
The Vancouver Canucks are back in action tonight for the first time since New Year’s Day. Since hiring Bruce Boudreau (Bruce, there he is), they’re 8-0-1 and they have a 10-1-1 record in their twelve games. They’re averaging only 2.53 goals per game but have been good on the back end all year, allowing an eleventh fewest 2.74 goals per game. Florida also comes into this game as one of the hottest teams in hockey. They’ve got a 23-7-5 record on the season with an insane home record of 18-3 and they come into tonight with five wins in their last six games since coming back from the Christmas break. They’re only behind Colorado, averaging a second highest 3.89 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.94 per game. It’s tough to bet against Boudreau’s Canucks but I can’t see them keeping up with the offense in Florida. I don’t think there’s value in the Panthers ML here at -245, but I’ll take them in regulation and the TT over 3.5 for half a unit each.
Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks (7:00)
Both of these teams blow. Chicago comes into this game with a 2-1 win in Vegas on Saturday in Marc-Andre Fleury’s return to the Fortress, ending the Blackhawks six game losing streak. Chicago’s 12-18-5 on the season and they’ve been pretty bad statistically on both ends of the ice, averaging a third fewest 2.29 goals per game but allowing a seventh most 3.4 goals per game. Columbus hasn’t been much better lately even though they’re 16-16-1 on the year. The Jackets come into this game with a 4-3 win against NJ on Saturday (pretty entertaining game, easily hitting my over bet on it), just their fourth win in their last 15 games. Columbus hasn’t been bad offensively, averaging 3.12 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL, but they’ve been terrible defensively and some of the worst goaltending in the NHL this season, allowing a fifth most 3.55 goals per game. They also have the worst penalty kill in the league. I’d lean the over here and the Blackhawks, but not enough to bet on either.
Predators vs. Avalanche (8:00)
Last night the Avs came back from down 3-1 to the Kraken and won 4-3 in regulation, giving me a 2-0-1 record on that game and winning me a bunch of money. Colorado’s an electric team to watch. They’re 22-8-2 and come into this game on a five game winning streak coming out of the Christmas break, with only one loss in their last eleven games. Despite having kind of lousy goaltending and allowing an average of 3.25 goals per game, that doesn’t matter when they’re scoring by far the most goals in the NHL, an average of 4.31 goals per game. The Predators have been very good too. They’re 23-11-2 with a 10-5 record at home and come into this game with four straight wins and an 11-1-1 record in their last 13 games. One of the hottest teams in hockey. Juuse Saros in goal’s leading them to this great run as they’re allowing an eighth fewest 2.61 goals per game while scoring an average of 3.08 goals per game. These teams split their first two games with the home team winning each of them (6-2 Avs, 5-2 Preds). I think Colorado’s the slightly better team here but I don’t see any edge to betting it, especially in Smashville tonight and with the Avalanche on the second half of a back to back. I like the over though. I was going to just take the 6.5, but buying a full point down to 5.5 is cheap enough so I’ll take that for 1.5 units.
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs (10:00)
In probably the game of the year on Saturday night, Toronto got out to a 4-1 lead in Colorado before the Avs came storming back to win 5-4 in overtime. That was the Leafs first loss in their last five games. They’re a wagon this season. The offense is firing at the level that they should be, averaging a seventh most 3.39 goals per game. On Jack Campbell’s league leading play in goal with a 1.99 GAA and .936 save percentage, they’re allowing the second fewest goals per game on average, just 2.49 per game. This team’s the real deal. Vegas has had their ups and downs all season. They’re 23-14-1 and after their disappointing 2-1 loss in Marc-Andre Fleury’s return to the fortress on Saturday night, they’re 3-2-1 since returning from the Christmas break. The Golden Knights have a great offense, averaging a fifth best 3.47 goals per game that’s going to get even more deadly soon as Jack Eichel’s getting ready to make his Knights debut later this month. They haven’t been spectacular defensively though, allowing an average of 2.7 goals per game. When these teams played in Toronto, the Leafs got a 4-0 shutout win. I don’t expect that to happen again, but I like the Leafs to bounce back here after their disappointing loss on Saturday night and I’ll take them for half a unit here tonight along with the alternate over 5.5 for a unit.
Ducks vs. Penguins (10:00)
On Saturday during the day, the Penguins ended their ten game winning streak with a disappointing 3-2 loss in Dallas where they gave up two goals in the last five minutes (losing my first legal bet). Even with that loss, the Pens are one of the hottest teams in the NHL with a 20-9-5 record. They’re averaging a ninth most 3.26 goals per game. Tristan Jarry’s been playing awesome in goal with a 1.94 GAA and .931 save percentage and as a team, they’re allowing a third fewest 2.5 goals per game. The Ducks had a hot start to the season but with injury issues, they’re now 19-12-7 and just have two wins in their last seven games. With Jarry starting against Ducks backup Anthony Stolarz, I love the Penguins in this one and I’ll put my biggest bet (so far) of the NHL season tonight on the Pens ML. Go Pens Go!
Sharks vs. Red Wings (10:30)
Not the best game on the slate here. The Sharks are 19-16-1 and come into this game with four wins in their last six games. None of those wins were all that impressive though coming against the Flyers twice, the Sabres and Arizona…and three of those games needed overtime. They’re averaging just 2.81 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.08 per game. One of those losses came in Detroit on January 4th when these teams just played each other and the Red Wings won 6-2. Detroit hasn’t been great either. That win over the Sharks was their only win in their last five games coming out of the Christmas break. On the season, they’re averaging 2.72 goals per game and allowing a ninth most 3.36 goals per game. At home tonight I’d slightly lean the Sharks here and the over, but not enough to bet either, so I’ll just skip this game completely.
2.5u Lightning in regulation (-190)
.5u Florida in regulation (-150)
.5u Florida TT over 3.5 (-152)
1.5u Avalanche/Predators over 5.5 (-175)
.5u Toronto ML (-110)
1u Toronto/Vegas over 5.5 (-143)
4u Penguins ML (-185)
Record (Regular Season Total): 276-204-12 (+18.22 units)
Regular Season Pregame: 276-203-12 (+18.79 units)
Regular Season Live: 0-1 (-0.57 units)
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