Decent day yesterday going 5-3, winning 2.65 units with NHL action all day. Tonight we have another big eight game slate. Let’s keep winning!
Senators vs. Sabres (7:00)
The Sabres are such a horrible team and yesterday gave up a 2-0 lead with less than ten minutes to go before losing 3-2 in overtime to the Red Wings. Buffalo’s 11-20-7 and they only have one win in their last nine games. They’re terrible on both ends of the ice, averaging a seventh fewest 2.53 goals per game and allowing a sixth most average of 3.47 goals per game. Tonight they’re starting last year’s fun story of the year goalie Michael Houser for the first time this season since Aaron Dell (who’s already awful enough) started three games in a row. Not that the Senators are much better at 11-18-2, but they come into this game off back to back wins against Edmonton and Calgary. The Sens are actually worse defensively than the Sabres, allowing a third most in the NHL average of 3.61 goals per game. They are better offensively though, averaging 2.84 goals per game. Ottawa should never be -220 against any team in the league, but with the Sabres on the second half of a back to back and starting their sixth different goalie of the year, the Sens should win here. I’ll take Ottawa for a unit in regulation along with a unit on the alternate over 5.5.
Bruins vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
This should be an awesome game. The 22-11-2 Bruins have been one of the hottest teams in the NHL lately, coming into this game on a five game winning streak with just one loss in their last nine games since coming back from the Christmas break. They’re allowing the fourth fewest goals in the NHL, an average of only 2.54 per game and scoring a twelfth most 3.14 goals per game. Carolina’s got an even better record at 25-8-2 and are better than the Bruins in both statistically categories, averaging a sixth most 3.4 goals per game and allowing the fewest in the NHL, an average of only 2.29 goals per game. The Canes shut out the Bruins 3-0 in October the first time they played but I don’t see that happening again tonight. I think the Hurricanes are the better team here, but the Bruins are playing better lately. I’d lean the B’s win this one at home and I’d slightly lean the under, but not enough to bet either so I’ll skip this game.
Capitals vs. Jets (7:00)
After their Sunday afternoon 4-2 loss to Vancouver, the Caps are now 21-9-9 this season with just one win in their last six games. I still think they’re a very good team though. Ovechkin now leads the league in points (54, tied with Draisaitl) and goals (26, tied with Draisaitl) and even with all the injuries they’ve faced, the Caps are averaging a tenth most average of 3.26 goals per game. They’ve been good on the back end too, allowing a ninth fewest average of 2.72 goals per game. Winnipeg’s been playing good hockey lately (although they’ve only played one game in the last twelve days and haven’t played a game since the 13th). They’re 17-12-5 with four wins in their last five games. They’re allowing a twelfth fewest 2.77 goals per game but haven’t gotten it going offensively, averaging 2.88 goals per game. A month ago, the Caps beat the Jets 5-2 in Winnipeg on December 17th. I think we get a similar result again here in Washington and I’ll take the Capitals for a unit.
Flyers vs. Islanders (7:00)
These teams just played last night on Long Island and the Isles were the clearly better team throughout, winning 4-1 (double winner on the Isles in reg and the under, winning me 2.5 units). Philly’s awful. After last night’s game, they’re 13-18-7 and on an eight game losing streak. They’re scoring only an average of 2.5 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL and allowing a ninth most average of 3.32 goals per game. The Islanders have five wins in their last five games to improve to 12-13-6 after their horrible start to the season. They’re getting even less done offensively than the Flyers, averaging only a third fewest in the NHL 2.29 goals per game. They’re much better defensively though, allowing an eighth fewest 2.65 goals per game. I’ll run it back with my same plays as yesterday on this game, expecting a similar result. The price is a lot cheaper with the Isles on the road and Carter Hart starting for the Flyers so instead of regulation, I’ll just take the ML for a unit along with the under for a unit.
Predators vs. Canucks (8:00)
Nashville’s hot streak has taken a downturn with the Preds coming into this game with three straight losses to St. Louis (last night), the Bruins and the Sabres. They’re still a really good 24-13-3 on the season. They are averaging 3.08 goals per game and allowing a 13th fewest 2.78 goals per game. Most of that is because of how good Juuse Saros is, and he’s not starting tonight with David Rittich getting the nod in goal. The Canucks have become a pretty legitimate team under head Bruce Boudreau. They’re now 17-18-3 and although they’re still struggling offensively, averaging only a fifth fewest 2.5 goals per game, they’ve been pretty good defensively, allowing an average of 2.84 goals per game. If Saros was starting, I’d be all over the Preds at home in Smashville today, but with Rittich starting, I’d rather just skip this game. I’d lean the over as well.
Stars vs. Canadiens (8:30)
Montreal solidified themselves as the worst team in the NHL after last night’s 5-2 loss to the Arizona Coyotes, the sixth straight loss for the Habs, who are now 7-25-5 and have only one win in their last 14 games. They’re allowing the most goals in the NHL, an average of 2.68 goals per game and scoring the fewest, only 2.08 per game on average. Dallas has been very good at home this season, where they have a 14-3-1 record. They’re 18-15-2 on the season, averaging 2.77 goals per game and allowing an average of 3 per game. The Stars aren’t a great team but at home here against a brutal Canadiens team on the second half of a road back to back, Dallas should win this one pretty easily. The ML on this game is unbettable at -360, but I’ll still lay the pretty heavy -205 juice for them to win in regulation for 2 units.
Flames vs. Panthers (9:00)
Calgary comes into this game at home on a four game losing streak. They’re not as hot as they were earlier this year and now have a 17-11-6 record. Jacob Markstrom and their defense has been pretty solid this season, allowing a sixth fewest average of 2.56 goals per game but their offense has significantly cooled down, averaging 3.03 goals per game. Florida on the other hand is on a four game winning streak and coming into this game with a 26-7-5 record. Their offense is unreal, averaging a second most in the NHL 4.13 goals per game while allowing an average of 3.03 per game. The first time these teams played on January 4th, Florida won 6-2. I like Florida to keep the win streak going here and will take them for 1.5 units. I’d lean the over and looked at the Panthers TT as well, but I think ML is just the best play on this game.
Kings vs. Lightning (10:30)
Yesterday LA didn’t bother to show up against their in-Cali rival SJ Sharks as Timo Meier scored a Sharks franchise record five goals against them (a hat trick in the first period) in their 6-2 loss, where they outshot the Sharks 41-17. That was their first loss in their last five games and only their second in their last eight. The Kings have been very good defensively and in goal, allowing only 2.54 goals per game, four fewest in the NHL, which has lead to their decent 20-14-5 record. They haven’t done much offensively, averaging only 2.74 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. The Bolts have been very good this year at 26-9-5, on a three game win streak with five wins in their last six games. They’ve been very good offensively, averaging an eighth most 3.33 goals per game and they’ve been good defensively as well, allowing an eleventh fewest 2.75 goals per game. When these teams played the first time this season in Tampa on December 14th, it took till overtime to the Lightning to win 3-2. I’d lean they get it done easier tonight even on the road and with the Kings on the second half of a back to back after yesterday’s disappointing loss (double loser for me with LA and the under). I’ll jump on the Bolts here with a unit on Tampa in regulation. The ML is just too expensive for me to lay on this road matchup at -220. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
1u Senators in regulation (-125)
1u Senators/Sabres over 5.5 (-135)
1u Capitals ML (-125)
1u Islanders ML (-129)
1u Islanders/Flyers under 5.5 (-130)
2u Dallas in regulation (-205)
1.5u Florida ML (-145)
1u Tampa in regulation (-130)
Record (Regular Season Total): 311-218-12 (+26.67 units)
Regular Season Pregame: 311-217-12 (+27.24 units)
Regular Season Live: 0-1 (-0.57 units)
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