Had my second losing day in a row on yesterday’s NHL slate, going 5-5 losing 4.54 units. Tonight we have an eight game slate with a lot of big favorites on the board.
Senators vs. Sabres (7:00)
These teams both suck. The Sabres are 13-21-7, coming off a win against Philly on Saturday. They have just three wins in their last twelve games. Buffalo’s averaging only 2.66 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and they’re allowing 3.44 per game, sixth most in the NHL. That gets even worse though when Aaron Dell starts, who’s confirmed in goal tonight. Dell has a 1-7-1 record, 3.92 GAA and .893 save percentage. Ottawa is pretty brutal as well at 12-20-3 also coming off a win against Columbus on Sunday and have only three wins in their last ten games. They’re better offensively than the Sabres, averaging 2.77 goals per game…still not great. They’re worse defensively though, allowing a fourth most in the NHL 3.57 goals per game. Last week on the 18th, the Sabres beat the Senators 3-1 (double loser for me on the Sens and the over). I considered running it back with the over, Ottawa and the Ottawa TT over here but I’ll keep it simple on this game, scale back a little bit and just go with a unit on the Senators. I considered the regulation line here too but I’d rather just lay the juice on the ML.
Devils vs. Stars (7:00)
Last night the Stars got a nice 3-1 win on the road in Philly with two goals in the last 3.5 minutes of the third period. That was the third straight win for the 21-16-2 Stars. Dallas is a significantly worse team on the road though, where they have a 7-12-1 record. The Devils are an even worse team, with a 15-20-5 record and just one win in their last five games, a 7-4 win on Saturday against Carolina who had to start like their fifth string goalie that day. Both of these teams are averaging 2.9 goals per game but the Stars are a bit better defensively, allowing a pretty lousy average of 3.05 goals per game while NJ is allowing 3.4 per game. Tonight the Devils are either starting third string goaltender Jon Gillies for his third straight game or their prospect Akira Schmid. Neither are good options. I’d slightly lean Dallas here but not enough to bet on them on the second half of a back to back when they’re bad on the road. I do like the over here though expecting both teams to score on these shitty goalies and shitty defenses. I’ll go with the alternate over 5.5 on this game for a unit.
Penguins vs. Coyotes (7:00)
This is a very lopsided game here that we’re gonna have to be a little bit creative on betting because there’s some clear opportunities to make some money here. The Penguins are one of the top teams in the NHL with a 26-10-5 record. They’re coming into this game on a five game winning streak after their 3-2 shootout win on Sunday against Winnipeg and they only have two losses in their last 18 games. The Pens are averaging 3.34 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL and allowing the second fewest goals in hockey, just 2.54 goals per game. Tristan Jarry’s confirmed in goal tonight and is one of the top goaltenders in the NHL this season with a 2.09 GAA and .928 save percentage. On the other hand, the Coyotes are one of the worst teams in the NHL. Despite having four wins in their last eleven games, they’re still terrible at 10-26-4. The Yotes are averaging only 2.23 goals per game, second fewest in the NHL and allowing the second most, an average of 3.7 goals per game. The Pens should win this game at home pretty easily but its not even close to worth laying -480 on the ML or even the -275 regulation line. I considered going with more than this but I’ll just stick with a unit each on the Penguins TT over 3.5 and the Coyotes TT under 2 in regulation.
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
Yesterday Vegas got a surprising 1-0 shutout win in Washington for their second straight win. The Knights are 25-15-2, despite dealing with a ton of injuries. They’re averaging a seventh most in the NHL 3.4 goals per game but allowing an average of 2.95 goals per game. Carolina’s coming off a 7-4 loss to Jersey on Saturday where they had to start their fifth string goalie. The Canes are a very good 27-9-2 on the season with a 13-4-1 record at home. They’re averaging a fourth best 3.58 goals per game and allowing the fewest in hockey, only 2.4 goals per game. They’re healthy again with Freddy Andersen confirmed in goal. With Vegas coming into this game on the second half of a road back to back and still missing most of their depth on offense, I like the Canes to win here. I think the ML is too expensive here at -230, but I’ll take the regulation line on Carolina for 1.5 units. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Islanders vs. Flyers (7:30)
Last night, the Flyers took their twelfth straight loss with a 3-1 loss at home to Dallas where they gave up two goals in the last 3.5 minutes. The Flyers have been abysmal offensively, averaging 2.45 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and allowing a ninth most in the NHL 3.33 goals per game. The Islanders are now 14-14-6, much improved lately from their shitty 5-10-5 start to the year. They’ve won six of their last eight games. They’re scoring a pathetic 2.32 goals per game average, fourth fewest in the NHL but have been very good defensively, allowing a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.59 goals per game. Both times these teams played this season, the Isles won with a 4-1 win on Long Island on the 17th and a 4-3 overtime win in Philly the following day. I like the Islanders to win again here and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit.
Jets vs. Panthers (8:00)
Florida screwed me big time on Sunday night in the midst of my heartbreaking Buffalo Bills loss by not scoring a fourth goal in the 3rd period, giving me a huge swing of losses on the TT and the 3P TT in their 5-3 loss in Seattle. The Panthers are one of the top teams in the NHL at 28-9-5 with only three losses in their last 13 games. They’ve been lousy on the road though, where they have a 7-6-5 record. Florida has the second highest scoring offense in the NHL only trailing Colorado, averaging 4 goals per game. The Jets come into this game on a four game losing streak and are 17-14-7 on the season. This is their first home game since December 19th. They haven’t been great offensively, averaging 2.82 goals per game. Both of these teams are pretty similar defensively, with Florida allowing an average of 2.83 goals per game and Winnipeg allowing an average of 2.84. With Florida coming off that loss on Sunday, I like them to bounce back with a win here, even on the road. I’ll go with a unit on the Florida ML and two units on the Florida TT over 3.5.
Kraken vs. Predators (10:00)
Philipp Grubauer had his best game of the year on Sunday night, putting on a show in the third period of their game against Florida to lock up the 5-3 win for the Kraken against the second best offense in the NHL. That was Seattle’s third win in their last four games, but this team is QUITE bad. They’re 13-24-4 and those three wins were the only ones they’ve had in their last thirteen games (and only have four in their last 17). The Kraken are bad on both ends of the ice, averaging only 2.66 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL while allowing a third most in the league 3.59 goals per game. The Preds are a really solid team this season and come into this game with back to back, get right wins and a 26-14-3 record. They’re averaging 3.09 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.72 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. Juuse Saros is one of the top goalies in the league with a 2.38 GAA and .925 save percentage. When these teams played back in October for the first time, the Kraken won 4-3 in Smashville. I think this is a great spot for the Predators and I’ll take them to get their revenge for 2 units and a unit on the Preds TT over 3. I’d lean the over and the Kraken TT under in regulation, but not enough to bet on either of them and sticking with just the Preds side of this game is the better move.
Canucks vs. Oilers (10:00)
The broken Edmonton Oilers finally ended their ridiculous seven game losing streak with a 5-3 win at home against Calgary in the Battle of Alberta. With just three wins in their last 16 games, the Oilers have dropped from 16-5 to 19-16-2. Pretty huge fall from grace for a team that has two of the best players in the NHL. As a team, they’re averaging 3.24 goals per game, tenth most in the league, with McDavid (55 pts, 36 assists) and Draisaitl (58 pts, 28 goals) involved in over half of those goals…each. Can’t expect to win much when all of your offense only goes through two players. Especially when the goaltending and defense has been as bad as it has been for them, allowing a seventh most in the NHL average of 3.41 goals per game. The Canucks have caught the injury bug and have covid issues lately, losing five of their last seven games. They’re now 18-19-4. On the season, they’ve been pretty lousy offensively, averaging 2.44 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL but have been solid defensively, allowing a twelfth fewest 2.76 goals per game. They’re going with their third string goalie again tonight, Spencer Martin, who in his first start of the season last Friday had a pretty solid .92 GAA and .971 save percentage with 33 saves in their 2-1 shootout loss at home to Florida. One game’s a pretty small sample size that I won’t really base a whole ton off of but the goaltending and injuries make me just stay off this game. I’ll just skip this game.
1u Senators ML (-175)
1u Stars/Devils over 5.5 (-125)
1u Penguins TT over 3.5 (-182)
1u Coyotes TT under 2 in regulation (-148)
1u Carolina in regulation (-120)
1u Islanders in regulation (-148)
1u Florida ML (-170)
2u Florida TT over 3.5 (-110)
2u Nashville ML (-175)
1u Nashville TT over 3 (-143)
Record: 347-241-14 (+14.71 units)