I had a shit day on the NHL again yesterday, going 6-8, losing 5.98 units. Time to scale back a bit on today’s seven game slate that doesn’t have a chance to compete against the NFL.
Rangers vs. Kraken (1:00)
The Rangers are a very good team at 28-13-4 but come into this game off back to back losses to Minnesota and Columbus. The Rags are scoring an average 2.98 goals per game and winning their games on the back of the best goaltender in the NHL, Igor Shesterkin with the Rangers allowing the fourth fewest goals in the NHL, just 2.6 per game on average. Seattle’s had an awful inaugural season at 14-25-4 but are playing one of their best stretches of hockey with four wins in their last six games including their 2-1 overtime win in Pittsburgh on Thursday. They’ve been bad on both ends of the ice, averaging an eighth fewest 2.63 goals per game and allowing a fourth most 3.54 goals per game. On October 31st when these teams played in Seattle, the Rangers won 3-1. I’m not gonna overthink this one and just lock in the Rangers ML for a unit. I’d slightly lean the under and the Rangers TT over as well.
Penguins vs. Kings (1:00)
Both of these teams are coming off frustrating losses that lost me money against bad teams. The 27-10-7 Penguins come off overtime losses to Detroit and Seattle at home in their last two games, vastly inferior teams. Prior to those two games, they only had two losses in their previous 19 games. The Pens are averaging 3.32 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and allowing the third fewest in hockey, just 2.52 per game. Yesterday the Kings had an up and down game, losing to Philly 4-3 in overtime in a game they were always trailing (double loser). They’re 22-16-7, scoring a ninth fewest average 2.73 goals per game but allowing just a sixth fewest average of 2.64 goals per game. With two good defenses here, I’ll take the under 6 for half a unit, the Penguins TT over 3.5 for half a unit and Kings TT under 2.5 in regulation for half a unit.
Hurricanes vs. Sharks (5:00)
The Carolina Hurricanes are one of the best teams win the NHL at 30-9-2, coming into this game with only one loss in their last seven games. Last night they grinned out a 2-1 win against the Devils (I split those, winning the regulation line, losing the TT over). They’re scoring a fourth most in the NHL average of 3.51 goals per game and allowing the fewest in the league, an average of only 2.37 per game. The Sharks are 22-19-3 and just have two wins in their last seven games. Last night they got out to a 4-2 lead in Florida and then blew that for the Panthers to beat them 5-4 in overtime. On the season they’re averaging just 2.77 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.09 per game. The Sharks actually beat the Canes 2-1 in SJ in overtime on November 22nd. I think Carolina probably gets an easy win in this one but I don’t think its worth laying the -285 on them. I’ll take Carolina in regulation for a unit.
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
These teams both suck but Columbus is significantly better than Montreal is. The Habs are the worst team in the NHL, coming into tonight with an 8-28-7 record and after last night’s 7-2 blowout loss to Edmonton they’re on a five game losing streak with only one win in their last twelve games and just two in their last 20 games. They’ve scored the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of only 2.19 per game and allowed the most, an average of 3.86 per game. Columbus comes into this game off a 5-3 surprising win against the Rangers on Thursday night, but they’re not playing good hockey, with just four wins in their last twelve games. They have a 19-21-1 record on the season. The Jackets have been terrible defensively, allowing a third most in the NHL average of 3.59 goals per game with bad goaltending from Korpisalo, who’s starting in goal tonight with a 3.89 GAA and .884 save percentage. They’re scoring a pretty close to league average, 3 goals per game. I don’t bet on Columbus much, but I think this is a good spot for them and I’ll go with the Blue Jackets for a unit.
Stars vs. Bruins (7:00)
This could be a fun game here. Dallas is 22-17-2 and come off a 5-0 shutout loss at home to the Caps on Friday night, ending their four game losing streak. They’ve been very good at home with a 14-5-1 record in American Airlines Center. The Stars are averaging 2.88 goals per game while allowing 3.05 per game. The Bruins have been really solid with an 11-3-1 record in the month of January and a 25-13-3 record on the season. They’re averaging 3.07 goals per game and allowing an eleventh fewest 2.71 goals per game. During the first week of the season, the B’s beat Dallas 3-1 in Boston on October 16th. I’d lean the Bruins win this one again on the road and would lean the under as well but not enough to bet on either. I’ll skip this game.
Islanders vs. Wild (7:30)
On Friday night the Wild ruined Henrik Lundqvist night for the Rangers with a 3-2 come from behind win. That was Minnesota’s fourth straight win and they only have one loss in their last eight games. The Wild are having a great season at 26-10-3, scoring the third most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.79 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.92 per game. The Islanders are 15-15-6, coming into this game off a 3-2 loss to LA at home on Thursday but have played decent lately with seven wins in their last ten games. The Isles offense is abysmal, averaging only 2.36 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL but they’ve been very good defensively, allowing a sixth fewest in the NHL 2.61 goals per game. On November 7th in Minny, the Wild won 5-2 pretty easily. Today, I’d think the Islanders limit the offense a bit more but I still like Minnesota to win this game on the road and I’ll take them for half a unit.
Avalanche vs. Sabres (8:00)
This is a ridiculously lopsided matchup. The Avs are one of the top teams in the NHL with a 31-8-3 record. They lead the NHL in scoring, averaging an insane 4.14 goals per game. Recently they’ve been better defensively but on the season have allowed an average of 2.98 goals per game and just outscored that to keep winning. The Sabres come off a 3-1 win last night in Arizona but have just four wins in their last 14 games and a lousy 14-22-7 record. We’re scoring a seventh fewest in the NHL 2.6 goals per game and allowing a sixth most 3.42 goals per game. Colorado should obviously win this game pretty easy as the -590 price on them suggests, but that’s not worth betting on any NHL game and even the -305 regulation line isn’t worth touching either. I’m not going nuts with this game and I’ll just stick with a unit on the Avs TT over 4 in regulation.
1u Rangers ML (-170)
.5u Penguins TT over 3.5 (-110)
.5u Penguins/Kings under 6 (-129)
.5u Kings TT under 2.5 in regulation (-167)
1u Carolina in regulation (-175)
1u Blue Jackets ML (-137)
.5u Wild ML (-120)
1u Colorado TT over 4 in regulation (-148)
Record: 374-261-14 (+9.72 units)