Solid night yesterday on the NHL with the Panthers crushing early and the Leafs coming all the way back, to go 5-3 (fuck the Oilers) and winning 4.89 units! Tonight we have the last huge slate before the All Star break with an eleven game slate. Let’s win!!!
Bruins vs. Kraken (7:00)
The Bruins are coming into this game off a 6-1 blowout loss in Dallas on Sunday for their third loss in their last four games. They were one of the hottest teams in the NHL in the month of January with an 11-4-1. They’re 25-14-3 on the season, averaging 3.02 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.79 goals per game. The Kraken aren’t good, they’re 14-26-4 but come into this game with four wins in their last seven games. Prior to that stretch though, this team was brutal with just one win in their previous 13. They’re scoring an eighth fewest average of 2.61 goals per game while allowing a fourth most 3.52 goals per game. I like the B’s to bounce back at home here with a win against a weak Kraken team and since the ML is too expensive at -265, I’ll take the Bruins in regulation for a unit.
Lightning vs. Sharks (7:00)
The Bolts are one of the top teams once again this season and come into tonight with a 29-10-6 record and are 15-4-4 at home. They’re coming off a 3-2 shootout loss to Vegas where they came back from down 2-0 but ultimately lost, just their second loss in their last eight games. Tampa’s averaging 3.38 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL and allowing a twelfth fewest 2.76 goals per game. The 22-20-3 Sharks are playing a bad stretch of hockey recently with only two wins in their last eight games. They’re scoring only 2.73 goals per game on average, tenth fewest in the league and allowing an average of 3.07 per game. These teams played not long ago on January 22nd in SJ and Lightning struck the Sharks down, as the Bolts blew them out 7-1. They should win pretty easily again tonight at home and the -360 price reflects that. I’ll take the Lightning in regulation for 1.5 units and the Lightning TT over 3.5 for a unit.
Devils vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Last night these teams played in Toronto and the Leafs won 6-4, but that doesn’t tell the story of that game. The Devils got out to a quick 3-1 lead in the first ten minutes of the game and still had a 4-2 lead going into the third period. With 6:32 left in the game, Mitch Marner tied the game up to hit my Leafs TT bet and then with around 3 minutes left, Ilya Mikheyev scored the game winner, cashing my Leafs regulation bet. Real roller coaster on my biggest game of the night. Tonight they head to Jersey for a rematch. The Leafs are very good this season, they’re 28-10-3 and after last night’s win they’re on a four game win streak. Toronto’s averaging 3.51 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL and allowing a ninth fewest 2.68 goals per game. The Devils suck lately though. They’re 15-24-5, coming into this game on a five game losing streak and have only one win in their last nine games. They’re averaging only 2.82 goals per game and allowing a fifth most in the NHL 3.46 goals per game. I’m running it back here with the same bets I had yesterday on here and going with a unit each on the Leafs in regulation and Leafs TT over 3.5 and a half unit on the alternate over 6.
Rangers vs. Panthers (7:00)
This is the best game on tonight’s big slate, a battle between one of the best offenses in the NHL and one of the best defenses in the NHL. After last night’s 8-4 win in Columbus (easy triple winner for me), the Panthers are 32-9-5 and on a four game win streak with only three losses (one in a shootout) in their last 17 games. Florida has the second highest scoring offense in the league, just slightly behind Colorado (4.15) and averaging 4.13 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.85 goals per game. With Bobrovsky starting last night, the Panthers will likely go with Spencer Knight (currently projected) between the pipes tonight, who hasn’t been great this season with a 3.16 GAA and .899 save percentage. The Rangers are a real good team too at 29-13-4 with a 14-4-2 record at home at MSG. They’re averaging 2.98 goals per game but are allowing a fourth fewest in the NHL average of just 2.59 goals per game. Igor Shesterkin’s the best goalie in the NHL and is currently projected to start tonight (not yet confirmed) with a 2.1 GAA and .937 save percentage. Both previous matchups this season between these teams were great games with the home team in each winning 4-3. I think Florida’s the better team here but with the Rangers at home, the Panthers on the second half of a back to back and the goaltending matchup, I like the Rags to get a win here. I’ll take them for half a unit shot as a home dog here. I’ll stay off the over/under, the Panthers trend over and the Rangers trend under but with the goaltending on both sides, the best move is to just stay off this.
Flyers vs. Jets (7:00)
Both of these teams were on quite the slump but come into this game off wins. The Flyers have been playing some of the worst hockey in the league lately and prior to their 4-3 win against LA on Saturday, they were on a 13 game losing streak. They’re 14-22-8, averaging only 2.5 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and allowing 3.34 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL. The Jets are 18-16-7 and ended their own six game losing streak on Saturday with a 4-1 win in St. Louis. They’re scoring only 2.8 goals per game on average and allowing an average of 2.9 per game. Although I don’t think either of these teams are very good, the Jets are the significantly better team in this game. I’ll take the Winnipeg ML for a unit.
Penguins vs. Capitals (7:00)
Interesting rivalry game here between Ovi and Sid. The Penguins are having a great season at 27-11-7 but come into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak with home losses against three shitty teams (LA, Detroit, Seattle), all of which screwed me betting on the Pens. Before that three game stretch, the Pens were on a six game win streak with only two losses in 19 games. They’re averaging 3.31 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and allowing a third fewest average of 2.56 goals per game. Tristan Jarry, who’s confirmed in goal, is having the best season of his career with a 2.17 GAA and .925 save percentage. The Caps are 24-12-9, coming off a 5-0 shutout win in Dallas on Friday night but prior to that were on a pretty bad stretch with just three wins in their previous eleven games. These teams split their two matchups in Washington earlier this season with the Caps winning 6-1 on November 14th and Pens winning 4-2 on December 10th. The Penguins are the better team here but I’m not betting on them again today after they lost me a bunch of money over the past week. I’d lean the under, but both previous matchups between these teams went over and who knows what happens when these teams play each other so I’ll just skip it entirely.
Islanders vs. Senators (7:30)
Last night the Sens grinded out a 3-2 overtime win against the Oilers, losing both of my bets on that game. They’re not a good team this season with a 14-21-4 record. Ottawa’s averaging only 2.77 goals per game and allowing an eighth most 3.36 goals per game. The Isles are 15-16-6, coming off back to back losses to the Wild and Kings with three losses in their last four games but have been playing their best hockey lately with seven wins in their last eleven games. They haven’t been able to generate scoring much at all this season, averaging only a third fewest in the NHL 2.38 goals per game. They’ve been very good defensively and in goal though, allowing a sixth fewest 2.65 goals per game. When these teams played in Ottawa on December 7th, the Islanders won 5-3. I can’t see the Sens going to Long Island and getting two wins in back to back nights. I definitely wouldn’t lay the -250 on the ML here but I’ll take the Isles in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
Predators vs. Canucks (8:00)
This might not seem like the best game on paper, but it is interesting to me. The Preds are having a pretty good season at 27-14-4. They’re coming off a 3-2 shootout loss in Edmonton last Thursday and prior to that were on a three game win streak. They’re averaging 3.09 goals per game and allowing a tenth fewest 2.69 goals per game, lead by Juuse Saros’ Vezina calibre play in goal with his 2.36 GAA and .927 save percentage. Last night the Canucks got a 3-1 win in Chicago, but have struggled with injuries and haven’t had a great stretch of hockey, with only four wins in their last eleven games. They’re 20-19-6 on the season, scoring a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.44 goals per game but have been very good defensively, allowing a fifth fewest 2.64 goals per game. Tonight they have Thatcher Demko getting the start in goal, who’s been real solid this season with a 2.57 GAA and .918 save percentage and like the rest of his team, has been even better since Bruce Boudreau took over as head coach, posting a .935 save percentage since then (credit Todd Cordell from theScore on that stat). The road teams won the previous two matchups between these teams this season with a 3-2 Preds win on November 5th in Vancouver and a 3-1 Canucks win on January 18th in Smashville. I think the Preds are the better overall team here and should get the win here, which I’ll take for half a unit. I really like the under here though and will take that for a unit.
Stars vs. Flames (8:30)
This is a tough game to analyze for me. Dallas is 23-17-2 and playing great hockey coming into this game off a 6-1 win on Saturday against the Bruins, their fifth win in their last six games. They’re very good at home with a 15-5-1 record at American Airlines Centre. The Stars haven’t been anything spectacular though on the stat sheets, averaging 2.95 goals per game and allowing an average of 3 goals per game. Calgary is having a good season as well at 21-13-6 and they seem to have rebounded from the bad hockey that they were playing through December and the first half of January with four wins in their last six games. They’re averaging 3.15 goals per game and allowing the second fewest goals in hockey, an average of 2.48 goals per game. In their first game in Calgary on November 4th, the Stars won 4-3 in overtime. I’d lean the Flames get the revenge win here in Dallas tonight but don’t see any edge in betting it at all. I’d lean the under as well but not enough to bet on it.
Avalanche vs. Coyotes (9:00)
These betting lines on the Avs are getting fucking ridiculous with the ML at a completely unbettable -590…but there’s good reason for that price. They’re the best team in the NHL at 32-8-3 with a 20-2-1 record at home, not losing in Ball Arena since November 3rd. They come into tonight’s game on a ten game win streak with only one loss in their last 16 games and just two losses in their last 22 games. They lead the NHL in scoring, averaging 4.15 goals per game and have gotten better goaltending lately, improving their goals against to an average of 2.93 per game. Besides Montreal, Arizona’s the worst team in the NHL. They’re 10-29-4 and on a five game losing streak. The Yotes have scored the fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 2.19 goals per game and have allowed the second most goals in the league, an average of 3.7 goals per game. Colorado win both previous matchups this season between these teams. It took till a shootout for the Avs to win 4-3 on January 14th but the next day it came way easier with a 5-0 shutout win in the dirty desert the following night. I of course like Colorado winning this game, but I can’t imagine laying -590. There’s not even any value in the -335 regulation line or either the -1.5 or -2.5 puck lines to make it worth betting on. I’ll go with a unit on Colorado TT over 4 in regulation.
Golden Knights vs. Sabres (10:00)
This is a pretty expensive line too. The Golden Knights have had a lot of bad injury luck this season but are still a good team and have a pretty decent 26-16-3 record. They come into tonight’s game off a 3-2 shootout win in Tampa on Saturday night and have three wins in their last five games. They’re averaging 3.31 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and allowing an average of 2.98 goals per game. My Sabres blow. They’re 14-23-7 but they actually played better than expected in their 4-1 loss to the Avs in Colorado on Sunday night, even though the score of that game doesn’t reflect that. On the season they’re bad on both ends of the ice statistically, scoring only 2.57 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and allowing a sixth most 3.43 goals per game. The Knights should pretty easily win this game in The Fortress tonight but I don’t like the value of any bets on this game. The ML and regulation line are too expensive and there’s no value to it, I don’t really like the over/under and the price to buy down to the Vegas TT over 3.5, even in regulation isn’t worth the price. I’ll just skip betting this game. If Jack Eichel was healthy and in the lineup, I’d be hammering every single possible prop on him, but that will have to wait.
1u Bruins in regulation (-157)
1.5u Lightning in regulation (-190)
1u Lightning TT over 3.5 (-124)
1u Leafs in regulation (-150)
1u Leafs TT over 3.5 (-152)
.5u Leafs/Devils over 6 (-159)
.5u Rangers ML (+132)
1u Winnipeg ML (-150)
1u Islanders in regulation (-148)
.5u Predators ML (-182)
1u Predators/Canucks under 5.5 (-130)
1u Colorado TT over 4 in regulation (-159)
BONUS BET: I have a free $100 bet on DraftKings Sportsbook, so I’m using that tonight on this +416 parlay: TB ML/Bruins ML/Leafs ML/Isles ML/Avs ML/Vegas ML (not counting this in my record regardless of if it wins or loses)
Record: 383-267-15 (+16.07 units)
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