Last night was a fun roller coaster, going 7-5 but losing 2.97 units. The bigger loser though was my bonus parlay to win over 8 units on a free bet that came SO close to hitting if the Avs hadn’t lost in a shootout to the Yotes. I’ll move on, it was free anyway. No harm. Tonight we have a five game slate with some great betting spots to go into the All Star break with some wins before a much need four days off from “real” NHL action.
Islanders vs. Kraken (7:00)
Both of these teams played last night and I made money on both of those matchups with the Isles beating the Sens 4-1 and the Bruins beating the Kraken 3-2. The Islanders are 16-16-9 and although they have just two wins in their last five games, they have eight wins in their last twelve games. The Kraken are a pretty bad 14-27-4, with only five wins in their last 21 games. Neither of these teams has generated a whole lot of offense. The Islanders are averaging only 2.42 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL and the Kraken are just above them, averaging an eighth fewest 2.6 per game. The biggest difference here though is goaltending and defense. The Isles are allowing the fifth fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 2.61 goals per game while Seattle’s bleeding goals away, allowing a fifth most 3.51 goals per game. The Islanders should pretty easily win this game. I’ll take the Isles in regulation for 2 units. I’d lean the under in this game, but at 5 there’s no value to that, so I’ll just skip it.
Capitals vs. Oilers (7:00)
Last night in their rivalry battle in Pittsburgh, the Caps played a fun game, getting a 4-3 win in overtime while getting outshot by the Pens 47-32, for their second win in a row. The Caps have been struggling a bit lately with a 5-6-2 record in their last 13 games, getting three of those wins in overtime, but they still have a 25-12-9 record on the year. They’re averaging an eleventh most 3.2 goals per game and allowing an eighth fewest average of 2.67 goals per game. Alex Ovechkin will be out tonight after entering COVID protocol earlier today and he’ll miss All Star Weekend (being replaced by Tom Wilson). This is a huge loss for the Caps since Ovi drives this team. The 22-16-3 Oilers are coming off a 3-2 overtime loss in Ottawa on Monday night (my only loss that night), but prior to that had four straight wins to get off the seven game losing streak they were on before then. McDavid, Draisaitl and the Oilers are scoring an average of 3.27 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. They have been bad defensively and in goal, allowing an average of 3.29 goals per game, tenth most in hockey. With Ovi out, I think the Oilers get a win here and although I don’t trust Edmonton all that much lately, I think its worth the bet here and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d also lean the over, but not enough to bet on it.
Red Wings vs. Kings (7:30)
This is an interesting game to analyze but likely not one I’d want to bet. The Detroit Red Wings are coming off a 2-1 overtime win on Monday against the Ducks, their second win in their last three games but only their fifth win in their last 15. They are 20-20-6 on the season but definitely play better hockey at home where they have a 14-8-3 record. They’ve been playing poorly on both ends of the ice, averaging only 2.72 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL but allowing a seventh most average of 3.39 per game. The Kings are coming off a win as well, 4-3 in overtime against Pittsburgh on Sunday (loser for me) and they have only three wins in their last eight games. They’re 23-16-7 and have struggled to score too, averaging only 2.76 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. The spot where they’re way better than Detroit though is defensively and their goaltending. LA’s allowing only 2.65 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL. When these teams played a month ago in LA on January 8th, the Kings shut out Detroit 4-0. I’d lean they get the win again here in a low scoring game. I don’t really see enough of an edge though to bet the Kings or the under here, so I’ll just skip this game.
Blackhawks vs. Wild (9:30)
This is my favorite betting matchup on the board tonight with a pretty big difference in the caliber of talent with the price not reflecting it. The Minnesota Wild are one of the hottest teams in the NHL. They’re 27-10-3 on the season coming into tonight on a five game win streak and only one loss, which came in a shootout in Colorado, in their last nine games. Their electric offense is scoring the third most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.8 per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.93 per game. The Blackhawks on the other hand suck, they have only one win (against Detroit) in their last seven games and come into tonight with a 16-22-7 record. They’ve struggled to score all season, averaging only 2.42 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL and their defense leaves Marc-Andre Fleury out to dry on a nightly basis as he can’t even save them with his solid 2.86 GAA and .910 save percentage as they allow an average of 3.33 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL. Minnesota won both previous matchups between these teams this season with a 5-1 blowout win in Chicago on January 21st and then a 4-3 overtime win in Minny the following night. I love the Wild to get another win here. I expected the price on them to be higher than -200, so I’m crushing them tonight with 4 units on the ML and at the nice puck line prices, a unit on the -1.5 and a half unit on the -2.5 alternate puck line. Let’s go Wild!!
Coyotes vs. Flames (9:30)
Last night the Coyotes played a great game against the Avs, staying in it the whole, tying the game at 2 with just 38 seconds left and then winning in a shootout, while being outshot 40-24 in the game. That gave Colorado their first home loss in 20 games and completely fucked my free parlay that was SO close to winning with the biggest upset in the last ten years in the NHL. That was Arizona’s first win in their last six games and they’re still one of the worst teams in the NHL with an 11-29-4 record. They’re averaging only 2.18 goals per game, fewest in the NHL and allowing a third most average of 3.66 goals per game. Calgary comes off a 4-3 come from behind win in Dallas last night where they scored three goals in the last 5:24 of the third period and outshot the Stars 40-28. Calgary’s now won five of their last seven games and come into tonight with a 22-13-6 record. They’re scoring a twelfth most in the NHL average of 3.17 goals per game and allowing the second fewest in the league, just behind Carolina (2.33), giving up an average of only 2.49 goals per game. I can’t see the Yotes beating two good teams two nights in a row and as soon as that game ended last night, in the midst of my anger for the Avs not coming through I said I was hammering the Flames tonight. I’m not gonna lay the -295 price on the ML, but I’ll take the Flames in regulation for 3 units, Arizona TT under 2.5 in regulation for a unit and Calgary TT over 3.5 for half a unit.
2u Isles in regulation (-130)
1u Oilers ML (-128)
4u Wild ML (-159)
1u Wild -1.5 (+150)
.5u Wild -2.5 (+260)
3u Flames in regulation (-177)
1u Arizona TT under 2.5 in regulation (-190)
.5u Calgary TT over 3.5 (-129)
Record: 390-272-15 (+13.1 units)
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