Last night was a shit show for me on the NHL, going 2-9-1, losing 10.47 units. Not good, but let’s move on to tonight. Tonight we have a six game slate of some pretty shitty matchups. Let’s get into it.
Flyers vs. Red Wings (7:00)
Both of these teams suck. The Flyers went into the All Star break with back to back wins against Winnipeg and LA but prior to that, they were on a 13 game losing streak. Now they sit at 15-22-8 on the season, scoring the sixth fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 2.51 goals per game and allowing the eleventh most goals in the league, an average of 3.29 goals per game. Detroit hasn’t been very good either. They’re 20-21-6 and are worse on the road where they have just a 6-12-3 record. The Red Wings have two wins in their last four games but only seven wins in their last 22. They’re averaging 2.72 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL and allowing a seventh most average of 3.43 goals per game. I think Detroit’s the slightly better team here but I’m not betting anything on this game. Essentially a coin flip between two shitty teams.
Stars vs. Predators (8:00)
This is an interesting game. Nashville’s having a great season and coming into tonight with a 28-14-4 record and only one loss in their last five games. They’re scoring an average of 3.11 goals per game and they’ve been very good defensively and with Juuse Saros All Star level of play (2.35 GAA, .927 save percentage), they’re allowing just 2.67 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. Dallas has been pretty decent this year. They’re 23-18-2 and have one of the best home records in the league, with a 15-6-1 record in American Airlines Centre. The Stars went into the All Star break with five wins in their last seven games but they have’t been great statistically on either end of the ice. They’re averaging 2.95 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.02 per game. The first time these teams played this season, the Preds won 4-2 in Dallas on November 10th. I’d slightly lean Nashville and the under here but not enough to bet on either of those.
Oilers vs. Blackhawks (8:00)
Last night the Oilers decided not to bother to show up as they got shut out 4-0 at home against the Golden Knights (losing my over on that game) and they’re now 23-17-3 on the season. Prior to last night’s game, they had won five of their last six games. Edmonton’s averaging 3.23 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL but allowing a tenth most average of 3.3 goals per game. They only win when McDavid and Draisaitl score enough to outscore their holes in goal and their bad defensive play and when those guys get shut down, this team gets embarrassed. The Blackhawks are just a bad team in general. They’re 16-23-7 and they went into the All Star break with only one win in their last eight games. Chicago’s scoring only 2.37 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL and allowing an eighth most 3.37 goals per game. The first game between these teams this season on November 20th, the Oilers won 5-2. I think the Oilers should win this game, but they’re not worth laying the -195 here and I don’t feel comfortable enough in needing them to score 4 goals to hit a TT here. I’ll just lay off this game. I’d lean the over.
Flames vs. Golden Knights (9:30)
Last night the Golden Knights crushed the Oilers on both ends of the ice with a 4-0 shutout win on the road for their third straight win. Even with all the injuries they’ve had and bad covid luck, they’re a pretty good 28-16-3 record and other than Jack Eichel, who will be joining them soon, they’re pretty much all healthy now. The Knights come into tonight’s game with a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games. Vegas is scoring an average of 3.36 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and they’re second in scoring five on five goals. They’re allowing an average of 2.89 goals per game. Calgary is having a good season of their own with a 23-13-6 record and they went into the All Star game with a five wins in their last six games. The Flames are averaging 3.19 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL and allowing the second fewest goals in the league, only an average of 2.89 goals per game. Vegas won 3-2 in the previous matchup this season between these teams in the Fortress on December 5th. I’d lean Vegas here and the over, but not enough to bet on either with Vegas coming into this game on the second half of a road back to back and Calgary at home and not being in action in a week.
Kraken vs. Coyotes (10:00)
This is a bad game that the pricing is way off on. Both of these teams suck. Seattle is 15-27-4 and although they went into the All Star break with a 3-0 shutout win on Long Island and five wins in their last nine games, this team sucks. They’re averaging just 2.61 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL and allowing a sixth most average of 3.44 goals per game. Arizona’s even worse. They’re 11-31-4 and after last night’s 5-1 blowout loss in Vancouver (split that game, losing the under by a goals but winning the Canucks in regulation very easily) they have just one win in their last eight games. The Yotes have scored the fewest goals in hockey this season, an average of only 2.15 goals per game but have allowed a second most 3.7 goals per game. In the first game these teams played on November 6th, Arizona won 5-4 at home when they came back from down 3-1 in the first period. Seattle should win this game since they are the slightly more talented team but there’s no way the ML on this game should be -220. It should be like -130. But at -220, I’m not even considering betting this game.
Canucks vs. Islanders (10:30)
Last night the Canucks came back from the All Star break with an easy 5-1 win against Arizona (split that game, winning Vancouver in regulation but losing the under by a goal), their third win in their last five games. They are averaging only 2.49 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL but they’re very good defensively, allowing just a sixth fewest 2.64 goals per game. The Isles went into the All Star break with a 3-0 home shutout loss (my only betting loss that night) to Seattle. On the season, they’re 16-17-6. They’ve really struggled to put the puck in the back of the net, averaging only 2.36 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL but have been great on the back end, allowing a fifth fewest average of 2.62 goals per game. Even with backup Jaro Halak starting in goal for the Canucks, I still really like the under on this game. Both of these teams struggle to score but are very good on the back end, the perfect trend to bet an under on. I always hate betting under 5s, since it feels like you’re almost settling for a push on those, so I’ll buy it up to the alternate 5.5 line and bet the under 5.5 for 1.5 units. This feels like a 3-1 game in either direction. I’d slightly lean the Islanders with the Canucks on the second half of a back to back but not enough to bet on it.
1.5u Canucks/Islanders under 5.5 (-159)
Record: 400-283-16 (+14.13 units)
Look Ahead for Tomorrow: Lock in 2 units on the Carolina ML (-105), 1 unit on Carolina in regulation (+155) and 1 unit Carolina -1.5 (+240) for tomorrow. I could see the lines on those significantly moving overnight and best to lock those in early. I’ll explain the game in full and why I’m locking those in early on the blog tomorrow.
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