Waste Management Phoenix Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – Phoenix, AZ
“The Greatest Show on Grass”

Course Breakdown

7266 yd. Par 71, only 3 water hazards on the course in play on 6-7 holes, all 3 Par 5s are some of the easiest on tour and are all reachable in 2 by a majority of golfers and 17 is a driveable Par 4, off the tee golfers will see narrow landing areas with bunkers placed strategically, lot of roll out from tee shots, large misses could land in desert vegetation, rough around the fairways isn’t too penal and golfers should still be able to hit good approach shots, with elevation drives and approaches will go farther, Bermuda grass, bunkers guarding most greens, greens are relatively flat, firm and fast in a large variety of sizes, course has longest driving distance average on tour (besides Mexico, averaging 295 yds vs. 282 yds tour average), scrambling and GIR % are higher than tour average where fairways gained is lower than tour average so missing the fairways doesn’t matter much

Tournament Notes

  • The biggest party in golf and the crowd is always a big factor here, this year returning to the typical 500k fans for the week after last year’s limited attendance with coronavirus regulations that limited it to only around 5000 fans per day
  • My favorite non-major of the year
  • A shitty finish at the Farmers hasn’t really been too detrimental to the top of the leaderboard here historically the next week
  • Behind Augusta and Waialae, this is the third most place on tour where course history matters 
  • 10 of the last 11 winners here had a T5 in one of their previous 5 events
  • Since 2000, only 8 54 hole leaders went on to win and only 2 since 2009 (Phil in 2013 and Rickie in 2019)
  • 24 of the last 34 players in the last 5 years that finished T5 here played Torrey the week before, 10 of them had MC’d at Torrey, 6 had made cut but finished outside T30 at Torrey and last year Carlos Ortiz finished 29th, only Tony Finau and Bubba Watson in 2020 and Xander Schauffele last year finished T10 or better at Torrey the week before in that span of time (Finau and Bubba T6 and Xander 2nd)
  • Bad putters can win here

Key Stats

Approach, SG: T2G, SG: OTT, Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (7 of the Par 4s are 442-490 yds)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 (24.5%)

Field

131 golfers, great field strength this week, 18 of the top 30 players in the world are here

Defending Champion: Brooks Koepka (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Xander Schauffele, KH Lee (-18)

One and Done: Justin Thomas

One and Done Considerations: Rahm, JT

Players

Jon Rahm: 11600: +750 – Best golfer in the world, most SG here in the last 5 years, T13,T9,T10,T11,T16 here the last 5 years, T3,T14,2 his last 3 events, 14th in approach, 1st in ballstriking, 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 77th in proximity 150-175 yds, 9th in short game, 5th in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 1st in DK pts, it’s just not worth betting at +750 since he doesn’t win 1 of every 8 tournaments he’s in…but man, its hard to stay off him every week

Justin Thomas: 11000: +1200 – T13,T3,3,T17,MC here the last 5 years, T20,T5 his last 2 events, 6th in approach, 6th in ballstriking, 5th in SG: T2G, 18th in SG: OTT, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 23rd in Par 5 scoring, 5th in proximity 150-175 yds, 75th in short game, 1st in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 2nd in DK pts

Daniel Berger: 9200: +2200 – Returning from back injury which does kind of worry me, MC,T9,MC,T11,T7 here the last 5 years, T20,T5 his last 2 events, 1st in approach, 5th in ballstriking, 4th in SG: T2G, 72nd in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 34th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 24th in Par 5 scoring, 10th in proximity 150-175 yds, 76th in short game, 25th in opportunities gained, 59th in birdie+ gained, 30th in DK pts

Louis Oosthuizen: 8800: +4000 – T11,3 his only 2 times here the last 5 years, first start this calendar year, 5th in approach, 14th in ballstriking, 6th in SG: T2G, 53rd in SG: OTT, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 29th in Par 5 scoring, 48th in proximity 150-175 yds, 20th in short game, 18th in opportunities gained, 32nd in birdie+ gained, 17th in DK pts

Russell Henley: 8200: +4000 – T30,MC,T15,MC,T16 here the last 5 years, T14,2,T22 his last 3 events, 2nd in approach, 3rd in ballstriking, 7th in SG: T2G, 22nd in SG: OTT, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 40th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 68th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in proximity 150-175 yds, 83rd in short game, 1st in opportunities gained, 18th in birdie+ gained, 20th in DK pts

Luke List: 7700: +6000 – T30,T25,MC,T26,MC here the last 5 years, coming off win at Torrey two weeks ago, T22,T10 his two events prior to that, 15th in approach, 4th in ballstriking, 2nd in SG: T2G, 7th in SG: OTT, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 9th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 20th in Par 5 scoring, 21st in proximity 150-175 yds, 94th in short game, 7th in opportunities gained, 7th in birdie+ gained, 15th in DK pts

Model

Approach (20%)

Ballstriking (5%)

SG: T2G (10%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Par 4 scoring (10%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (5%)

Par 5 scoring (10%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (10%)

Short game (5%)

Opportunities gained (10%)

Birdie+ gained (10%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

0.5u Justin Thomas (+1200)

0.24u Daniel Berger (+2700)

0.16u Louis Oosthuizen (+4000)

0.16u Russell Henley (+4000)

0.1u Luke List (+6000)

T5s

0.24u Daniel Berger (+550)

T6s

0.16u Louis Oosthuizen (+800)

0.16u Russell Henley (+800)

0.1u Luke List (+1200)

Props

0.5u Rahm/Thomas to both finish T20 (+200)


Please follow us on Instagram @atownszone and Twitter @atownszone! If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends.

Use this link to sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook and we will each get a free $100 bonus on your first deposit!

Use this link to sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and we will each get a free $100 bonus on your first deposit!

Use this link to sign up for Caesars Sportsbook and we will each get a free $100 bonus on your first deposit!

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s