Lost my only bet last night in the first period since Halak allowed five goals on twelve shots in the first 17 minutes of the Canucks game before getting pulled. At least it wasn’t a sweat, losing 2.38 units and it was a good move staying off the rest of the slate. Tonight we have a seven game NHL slate with some great matchups to get a bounce back from the last two nights!
Bruins vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
Last night I jumped on this game early, a rare move for me, to get some value anticipating the lines on this game to move a ton. Already got a ton of closing line value in doing that. Let’s get into this game. Both these teams are playing good hockey this season but come into tonight off of losses. Carolina’s 31-10-3 on the season and after losing a tight game 4-3 in Toronto in overtime on Monday night, they went down 4-0 through two periods against the Senators Tuesday, before coming short on the comeback, ultimately losing 4-3. Prior to those two games and the All Star break, the Canes had just one loss in eight games. On the season, Carolina’s averaging 3.45 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL while allowing the fewest goals in league, an average of only 2.41 goals per game. The Bruins are having a good season at 26-15-3 game but after their heated 4-2 loss against Pittsburgh on Tuesday night, they’ll lose two of their top players for tonight. Patrice Bergeron is out injured with a concussion and Brad Marchand is suspended for six games for being a scumbag and punching Tristan Jarry in the head Tuesday night. On the season, the B’s are scoring an average of 3 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.8 goals per game. This team doesn’t have a ton of scoring depth and I don’t expect them to put the puck in the back of the net much without 2/3s of the Perfection Line. The first two times these teams played this season, Carolina’s won both of those games with a 3-0 shutout win at home on October 28th and a 7-1 blowout win on January 18th. I love Carolina to bounce back with a win here against a Bruins team that’s missing two of their best key players. Like I said, I already got a ton of CLV on this game locking in Carolina ML for 2 units at -105 (now -150 at the time of writing this at 3:30 this afternoon), in regulation for a 1 unit at +155 (now +115) and 1 unit on the puck line at +240 (now +175). In addition, today I’m adding a half unit each on the alternate -2.5 puck line and the Bruins TT under 2.5 in regulation.
Sabres vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
This is an interesting matchup to me between two teams that I think are pretty bad. Columbus is 21-22-1 on the season and actually have three wins in their last four games, coming out of the All Star break with a 5-4 win in Washington on Tuesday night. They’ve been decent offensively this year, averaging 3.14 goals per game but terrible on the back end, allowing a second most in the NHL average of 3.68 goals per game. My Sabres have been bad all season on both ends of the ice. We’re 14-24-7, averaging a seventh fewest 2.56 goals per game and allowing a fifth most 3.47 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season was quite a high scoring affair, with the Jackets winning 7-4 in Buffalo on November 22nd. I’d lean the Blue Jackets here but not enough for me to bet on them. This isn’t a type of game I bet a side on with two lousy teams. I like the over here and will take it for half a unit.
Senators vs. Penguins (7:00)
The Penguins finally got off their four game losing streak, coming back from the All Star break with a 4-2 win in a heated game in Boston on Tuesday night. The Pens are a fantastic team this season with a 28-11-8 record and prior to their four game losing streak, they had won 17 of their last 19 games. They’re scoring an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.32 goals per game and allowing the third fewest goals in hockey, only 2.57 goals per game on average. Tonight though they’re starting Casey DeSmith who hasn’t fared even close to as well as All Star Tristan Jarry has. The Ottawa Senators have been pretty lousy this year at 16-22-4, but they come into tonight’s game with three wins in their last four games. The Sens have struggled to score, averaging an eleventh fewest 2.79 goals per game and have been bad on the other end of the ice as well, allowing an eleventh most average of 3.31 goals per game. These teams split their first two games this season with the home team winning each of those games, with a 6-3 Ottawa win on November 13th and a 6-4 Pens win on January 20th. Even with DeSmith starting, the Penguins should get a win here but I don’t like laying the -200 on them, so I’ll go with half a unit on the Pens in regulation. I also like the over, expecting both teams to be able to score and will take the alternate over 6 for a unit.
Canadiens vs. Capitals (7:00)
The Caps are having a decent season at 25-14-9, but have been playing pretty lousy hockey lately with just five wins in their last 15 games. Ovi (59 points, 29 goals) and the offense has been really solid this season, scoring an eleventh most in the NHL 3.21 goals per game. They’ve been pretty good on the other end of the ice too, allowing a twelfth fewest 2.77 goals per game. The Montreal Canadiens are the worst team in the NHL at 8-30-7, coming into tonight on a seven game losing streak with only one win in their last 14 games and just two in their last 22. They just fired head coach Dominique Ducharme yesterday with Martin St. Louis taking over behind the bench as the new interim head coach. This team’s been awful across the board, averaging only 2.2 goals per game, fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.98 goals per game, the most in the NHL. This team’s the worst team in hockey no matter how you cut it up. When these teams played the first time this season on November 24th, the Caps cruised to an easy 6-3 win and I’d pretty much expect the same type of results tonight. The ML is too expensive here at -245, for a team that’s been struggling a bit, as Washington has, but this is a great get-right spot for them. I’ll take the Caps in regulation for 1.5 units and the Caps TT over 3.5 for a unit.
Blues vs. Devils (8:00)
This is a pretty lopsided game. The Blues are a great team this year, with a 26-13-5 record and a 17-5-2 record at home. They haven’t played since their 4-1 loss at home to Winnipeg on January 29th, so they’re very well rested but were playing great hockey before the break. St. Louis is averaging 3.43 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL while allowing an average of just 2.71 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. The Devils on the other hand have been awful and come into tonight with a 16-26-5 record. They won a 7-1 blowout in Montreal on Tuesday night to end the seven game losing streak that they were on. They’re struggling to score, averaging just 2.83 goals per game and they have been even worse on the back end, allowing an average of 3.49 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL. I really like the well rested Blues to get an easy home win here tonight. I’ll take the Blues in regulation for 2 units and the Blues TT over 3.5 for a unit.
Avalanche vs. Lightning (9:00)
This might be one of the most fun matchups that we see all season and a potential preview of a Stanley Cup Finals series this year between two of the best teams in the NHL. The Avs went into the All Star break losing at home in a shootout to the Yotes, a shocking loss that cost me a huge free parlay win with the biggest underdog win in the last ten years of the NHL. That being said, Colorado is still one of the best teams in the NHL. They’re 32-8-4 and prior to that loss to Arizona had been on a ten game win streak and they have an insane 22-2-2 record at home. They lead the NHL in scoring, averaging 4.09 goals per game and are allowing an average of 2.91 goals per game. The back to back Cup champ Bolts are very good as well, with a 30-10-6 record and seven wins in their last nine games. They’re averaging a seventh most in the NHL 3.37 goals per game and they’re allowing an eleventh fewest average of 2.74 goals per game. Kucherov should be back in the lineup for Tampa and Nate MacKinnon is still out for the Avs. When these teams played in Tampa on October 23rd, it was a very tight game with both teams trading goals in an Avs 4-3 shootout win. I’d lean the Lightning get the win here on the road with the superior goaltending from Vasilevskiy and there’s value to them at even money, since we rarely ever see them as a dog, but this is a game that the best move is just skipping a side. I do expect both teams to light the lamp with two of the best offenses in the league, and I’ll take the alternate over 6 for a unit.
Flames vs. Maple Leafs (9:00)
This is an interesting matchup between two solid Canadian teams this season. After last night’s dominating 6-0 shutout win against Vegas, the Calgary Flames are on a four game win streak with six wins in their last seven games and come into tonight with a 24-13-6 record. They’re scoring an average of 3.26 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and they have been even better on the back end, allowing a second fewest in the NHL average of 2.42 goals per game. The Leafs have been an even better team, they’re 30-10-3 and after coming back from the All Star break with a 4-3 overtime win against Carolina on Monday night, they’re now on a six game win steak. They’re averaging 3.6 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL and have the best power play in the league, converting on 30.3% of their man up opportunities. Toronto’s also been great defensively too and lead by Jack Campbell’s great goaltending (2.3 GAA, .925 save percentage), they’re allowing a sixth fewest average of 2.65 goals per game. This should be a great game to watch. I’d slightly lean the Leafs just because the Flames are on the second half of a back to back with Dan Vladar likely getting the start in goal, but not enough for me to bet this game. I’d slightly lean the over, but with two great defenses in this game, I don’t see any edge to betting the total in either direction of this game, so I’ll just skip this game completely.
2u Carolina ML (-105) locked in yesterday
1u Carolina in regulation (+155) locked in yesterday
1u Carolina -1.5 (+240) locked in yesterday
.5u Carolina -2.5 (+320)
.5u Bruins TT under 2.5 in regulation (-113)
.5u Blue Jackets/Sabres over 6 (-125)
.5u Penguins in regulation (-122)
1u Penguins/Senators over 6 (-129)
1.5u Caps in regulation (-150)
1u Caps TT over 3.5 (-132)
2u Blues in regulation (-155)
1u Blues TT over 3.5 (-136)
1u Lightning/Avalanche over 6 (-130)
Record: 400-284-16 (+11.75 units)
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