The Ducks fucked me losing to the Kraken, but still a profitable night on yesterday’s four game NHL slate, going 3-3 and winning 1.74 units. Today we have an eight game slate with a few day games.
Red Wings vs. Flyers (12:00)
This is a shit game between two lousy teams in a rematch of their game in Philly on Wednesday night that the Red Wings won 6-3. The Flyers are 15-23-8 and they have two wins in their last three games (last 16 games). This team stinks, scoring an average of only 2.52 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL while allowing an average of 3.35 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL. Detroit’s not a whole lot better. They’ve got a 21-21-6 record but have been better at home where they’re 14-9-3. They’re coming into this game with three wins in their last five games. The Red Wings are averaging 2.79 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL but allowing a seventh most 3.42 goals per game. Detroit’s the better team here and although this isn’t the type of game I usually jump on betting, but I’ll take a half unit each on the Red Wings and the over.
Senators vs. Bruins (12:30)
I don’t love this game at first glance of it. The Bruins are a decent team this season at 26-16-3 and after their 6-0 loss to Carolina on Thursday night, they have just one win in their last four games. They’re still without their two best players Bergeron (injured) and Marchand (suspended) and that’s a big problem for them since they don’t have any scoring depth past the perfection line. On the season, the B’s are averaging 2.93 goals per game while allowing an average of 2.87 per game. Ottawa’s a shitty team with a 16-23-4 record but they’ve won three of their last five games. On the season, the Sens are averaging 2.72 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL while allowing 3.28 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season, the Bruins won 3-2 at home on November 9th. If Bergeron and Marchand were in the lineup, I’d probably be all over the Bruins in this game but without them, I’d rather just skip this game. It’s not worth betting. I’d also lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets (12:30)
The Habs are the clear cut worst team in the NHL. They’re 8-31-7 on the season with only one win in their last 15 games. This team BLOWS and they’re the worst team in hockey on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.2 goals per game, while allowing an average of 4 goals per game. Awful. Columbus isn’t great either, but they’re significantly better than Montreal. The Blue Jackets are 22-22-1 but have played decent recently with four wins in their last five games. They’ve been decent offensively this season, averaging 3.16 goals per game but have been terrible on the back end, allowing a second most 3.67 goals per game, only fewer than Montreal. When these teams played January 30th, the Blue Jackets blew out the Habs 6-3. I’d expect similar results here. Since Columbus is on the road and aren’t a great team in general, we’re getting a nice price on them here. I’ll take the Jackets ML and the Jackets TT over 3 for 1.5 units each, along with the over 6 and the puck line for half a unit each.
Canucks vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
The Leafs six game win streak came to an end on Thursday with their 5-2 loss in Calgary. They’re having a great season at 30-11-3 and have averaged 3.57 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL while allowing an eighth fewest 2.71 goals per game. The Canucks have gotten much better since hiring Boudreau and now they’re pretty much all healthy. They’re 21-21-6 on the season but just have two wins in their last five games, coming against Arizona and Chicago…not exactly tough competition. They’re averaging only 2.5 goals per game on the season, fifth fewest in the NHL but are allowing only an average of 2.71 goals per game, tied with Toronto for eighth fewest in the league. I should like the Leafs here but I don’t like them enough to bet the -200 on them on the road. This feels like a trap game to me and I’ll just stay off it. I’d lean the under too with these two good defenses but with the Leafs starting Mrazek likely against Demko, I’ll skip that too. Best move on this game is just not betting it.
Predators vs. Jets (7:00)
The Jets haven’t been great this season. They’re 19-17-8 on the year, with two wins in their last four games (and ten games), coming off a 4-3 overtime loss in Dallas last night (winner for me). On the season, they’re averaging just 2.75 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.86 per game. Nashville’s been great this year. They’re 28-15-4 with a 14-7 record at home in Smashville. They’re coming off a 4-3 loss in Dallas as well coming out of the All Star break but prior to that had four wins and a shootout loss in their last five games. They’re averaging 3.11 goals per game and allowing a seventh fewest average of 2.7 goals per game on Juuse Saros great play in goal. I love Nashville here to bounce back with a win at home with the struggling Jets on the second half of a back to back. Although I don’t like the ML at -220, I’ll take the Preds in regulation for 2 units.
Wild vs. Hurricanes (8:00)
This should be a great game between two of the best teams in the NHL. Carolina’s coming off a huge 6-0 win in Boston on Thursday night that I fucking crushed betting on in every single way possible. They’re 32-10-3 with an 8-2-1 record in their last eleven games. They’re fifth in the NHL in scoring, averaging 3.51 goals per game and allowing the fewest goals in hockey, only 2.36 per game. The Wild are coming off a disappointing 2-0 shutout loss in Winnipeg on Tuesday night that ended their six game win streak. Minnesota’s been incredible this year as well at 28-11-3. Their amazing offense is averaging 3.74 goals per game, third most in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of 3.83 goals per game. I think the Canes are the more well rounded team here but as the books are showing us with the -110 line, this game’s pretty much a coin flip between two awesome teams with the Wild at home. I’ll just lay off betting it. I’d lean the over as well, but not enough to get action on it.
Blues vs. Blackhawks (8:00)
This is probably the most lopsided game on tonight’s slate. The Blues, despite losing their last two games to shitty teams at home against the Devils and Jets, are having a solid season at 26-14-5. They’re 17-6-2 at home, averaging 3.44 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL while allowing an average of 2.8 goals per game. The Blackhawks on the other hand suck. They’re coming off a 4-1 win in Edmonton on Wednesday but haven’t been good this season at 17-23-7. Chicago’s struggled on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.4 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL and allowing an eighth most 3.32 goals per game. These teams split their first two games this season with a 1-0 Blues shutout win at home October 30th and a Hawks 3-2 OT win at home on November 26th. I like the Blues to get the win here and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d also lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Flames vs. Islanders (10:00)
After a bit of a bad stretch, the Calgary Flames are playing great hockey again coming into tonight on a five game win streak with eight wins in their last ten games and a 25-13-6 record. They’re averaging 3.3 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and allowing the second fewest goals in hockey, just 2.41 goals per game. The Isles have struggled all year, especially offensively and they’re 17-18-6. They are averaging 2.41 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL but they have been very good on the back end, allowing only 2.63 goals per game on average, fifth fewest in the NHL. On November 20th on Long Island that wasn’t a problem for Calgary though as the Flames won 5-2 on the road. I’d expect another easy win for them tonight at home and I’ll go with 3 units on the Flames in regulation.
.5u Detroit ML (-165)
.5u Detroit/Philly over 5.5 (-120)
1.5u Columbus TT over 3 (-162)
1.5u Columbus ML (-134)
.5u Columbus -1.5 (+175)
.5u Columbus/Montreal over 6 (-139)
2u Nashville in regulation (-136)
1u Blues in regulation (-134)
3u Flames in regulation (-127)
Record: 413-290-16 (+20.34 units)
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