Yesterday was a profitable Sunday, going 10-4 and winning 2.47 units. Not bad even though Dallas fucked us from a huge day but can’t complain when we’re up over 40 units now on the season! Today we have a five game slate with some day games for President’s Day.
Bruins vs. Avalanche (1:00)
To start off the slate with this Monday day game, we have the Central leading 36-9-4 Colorado Avalanche going to Boston to take on the 28-17-4 Bruins. The Avs continue to stay home, with a 16-1-2 record in their last 19 games since coming back from the Christmas break, coming off a 5-3 win in Buffalo on Saturday. They have the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.98 goals per game and have improved greatly on the backend as of late and now on the season are allowing a twelfth fewest in the NHL average of 2.8 goals per game. The Bruins are coming off a 3-2 overtime win over the Senators on Saturday afternoon (double winner, B’s and the under). They have just four wins in their last eleven games and those wins came against Ottawa twice, Seattle and Arizona…not great. They’re only scoring an average of 2.84 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL, and they’re still missing Brad Marchand, who’s still suspended. They’ve been good defensively, allowing an eleventh fewest average of 2.78 goals per game. The first time this season these teams played, the Avs won 4-3 in overtime on January 26th in Boston. I’ll go with 1.5 units on the Avs here, gotta always hit them when they’re cheaper than -200. I’d slightly lean the under but definitely am not betting on that with the Avs offense.
Flyers vs. Hurricanes (3:00)
This is a huge mismatch. Carolina’s 34-11-4 after beating the Penguins 4-3 in a game they lead throughout in Pittsburgh yesterday for their second win in a row after a 1-2-1 slump they had for their five games prior. The Canes are averaging 3.49 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL and they’ve been great on the back end, allowing a second fewest in the NHL average of 2.41 goals per game. The Flyers have been awful this season. They’re 15-25-9 and currently on a four game losing streak with just two wins in their last 19 games. This team blows. They’ve struggled to score all year, averaging only 2.55 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL and they’re only slightly better defensively, allowing a seventh most average of 3.43 goals per game. These teams split their first two games this season with the road team winning each of those games. The Flyers won 2-1 on November 12th in Carolina and the Hurricanes won 6-3 in Philly on November 26th. The Canes should continue to win against the lousy Flyers today. FanDuel has boosted odds on a Hurricanes, Flames, Leafs parlay at +240 which I’ll take for a unit (which is the max they’re allowing). In addition, I’ll go with a unit on the Canes in regulation and a half unit each on the Carolina ML, the over, Carolina TT over 3.5, Flyers TT under 2.5 in regulation.
Flames vs. Jets (4:00)
Calgary’s the hottest team in the NHL right now, coming into today on a nine game win streak with just one loss in their last twelve games, improving to 29-13-6 on the season and dominating both ends of the ice. Defensively they’re leading the league, allowing only 2.35 goals per game, the fewest in the NHL and they’ve been really good offensively too, averaging 3.42 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. Winnipeg’s been inconsistent this season at 22-19-8. They’re coming off a 4-2 loss to Edmonton on Saturday that they actually came pretty close to tying up at the end of the game and have a 5-3-1 record in their last nine games. On the season the Jets are averaging 2.86 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.88 goals per game. Winnipeg won the first game this season that these teams played 4-2 on November 27th in Calgary. I think the Flames get their revenge here on home ice to extend the win streak to ten games. Along with my parlay with the Canes and Leafs, I’ll go with a unit on the Flames in regulation. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on here.
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Shockingly, the Montreal Canadiens, easily the worst team in the NHL come into today’s game with back to back 3-2 wins, both coming in overtime against the Blues on Thursday and on Long Island yesterday afternoon. Obviously I lost money on both of those games. The Habs are 10-33-7 and before those two games, they were on a ten game losing streak and had just one win in their last 17 games. They’re the worst team in the league on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.2 goals per game while allowing an average of 3.9 goals per game. The Leafs on the other hand have been fantastic all season. They’re 32-13-3 on the year and are coming off a 6-3 loss to the Blues on Saturday but have eight wins in their last eleven games. Toronto’s offense is buzzing, averaging 3.58 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL and they’ve been very good defensively as well, allowing a seventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.73 goals per game. In their opening game of the season, these teams actually played a closer game than expected with the Leafs winning 2-1. I think the Leafs should win here again but that win should come much easier. I just don’t see a way that Montreal rattles off three straight wins, especially on the second half of a back to back today. I don’t think its worth laying the juice on the -375 ML or even the -225 regulation line. Hopefully the Hurricanes and Flames both win prior to this game to keep the ML parlay alive with just the Leafs pending at the great +240 price. In addition I’ll go with a half unit each on the Habs TT under 2.5 in regulation and the Leafs TT over 3.5.
Canucks vs. Kraken (10:00)
On Friday night the Canucks got off to an extremely slow start against the Ducks, digging themselves a 5-0 hole that they couldn’t get out of in what turned out to be a 7-4 loss. Vancouver’s 23-22-6 on the season and come into tonight with a 5-3-1 record in their last nine games. They’ve been very good defensively, allowing a twelfth fewest in the NHL average of 2.8 goals per game but they’ve struggled to score, averaging only a sixth fewest 2.59 goals per game. The Kraken have been terrible all season and are on a three game losing streak with a 16-31-4 record. They’re also averaging only 2.59 goals per game, tied with Vancouver for sixth fewest in the NHL. Seattle’s been terrible on the back end as well, allowing a sixth most in the NHL average of 3.51 goals per game. The Canucks won both previous matchups between these teams this season in Seattle with a 4-2 win on October 23rd and a 5-2 win on New Year’s Day. I’d expect they bounce back from Friday’s loss and stay undefeated against Seattle with a win at home tonight. I’ll take the Canucks ML for a unit and the puck line for half a unit.
1.5u Avalanche ML (-170)
1u parlay: Hurricanes ML/Flames ML/Leafs ML (+240)
1u Carolina in regulation (-129)
.5u Carolina ML (-200)
.5u Carolina TT over 3.5 (-125)
.5u Carolina/Philly over 6 (-110)
.5u Flyers TT under 2.5 in regulation (-110)
1u Calgary in regulation (-139)
.5u Leafs TT over 3.5 (-190)
.5u Montreal TT under 2.5 in regulation (-190)
1u Canucks ML (-167)
.5u Canucks -1.5 (+150)
Record: 471-320-16 (+41.62 units)
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