Nice bounce back night yesterday, going 4-2-1 and winning 2.8 units. Today we have a huge ten game slate on the NHL including an outdoor game tonight in Nashville!
Panthers vs. Oilers (12:30)
Florida’s one of the best teams in the NHL at 35-12-5 with an incredible 23-5 record at home but they’re coming off two straight back to back losses at home, losing 6-4 to Nashville on Tuesday and 6-3 to Columbus on Thursday night where they outworked the Jackets all game and just couldn’t get the puck in the net. The Panthers lead the NHL in scoring, averaging 4.1 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.96 per game. The Oilers just dropped their last two games as well but have showed signs of improvement lately since firing Tippett and are now 28-20-3 on the year. McDavid and Draisaitl’s offense is scoring an average of 3.29 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL but they have a horrible defense, allowing a tenth most in the NHL average of 3.26 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season, the Panthers embarrassed the Oilers with a 6-0 win in Edmonton. I’d expect Florida to get off the losing streak with a win here at home today. I’ll lay the juice on the ML for a unit, along with a unit on Florida TT over 3.5 and half a unit on the over 7.
Flyers vs. Capitals (12:30)
The Flyers are a terrible team this season at 15-26-10 and they’re currently on a six game losing streak. They’ve been bad on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.53 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.45, eighth most in the NHL. The Caps have been pretty inconsistent lately but a much better team at 28-16-9 with three wins in their last five games. They’re scoring a decent amount, averaging 3.21 goals per game while giving up an average of 2.77 per game, eleventh fewest in the league. These teams split their previous two matchups this season with the road team winning each game, a 2-1 Flyers win on November 6th and a 5-3 Caps win on February 17th. I like Washington to get a win here today on the road in Philly and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Penguins vs. Rangers (3:00)
This is a fun mid day game here. The Penguins are a great team at 31-14-8 on the season but they come into today’s game on a three game losing streak, getting crushed by the Devils 6-1 on Thursday night at home. On the season, they’re scoring an average of 3.25 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL and with Tristan Jarry’s great play in goal (2.38 GAA, .919 save percentage), they’ve allowed only 2.66 goals per game on average, fourth fewest in the NHL. The Rangers are also a great team winning on defense and goaltending. They’re 33-15-5 with a 5-0-1 record in their last six games. They’ve scored an average of 2.96 goals per game. Igor Shesterkin is by far the best goalie in the league, who at this point of the season has solidified himself as the Vezina with even Hart talk for him with his incredible 1.98 GAA and .940 save percentage and with that the Rangers are allowing a third fewest in the NHL 2.47 goals per game. I like this game to be a goaltending battle and I’ll take the alternate under 6 for a unit. Along with that, I can’t stay off betting the Rangers as a underdog and I’ll take them for half a unit.
Senators vs. Canadiens (7:00)
What a shitty game this is. Montreal’s the worst team in the NHL with a 12-33-7 record on the season but they’re shockingly in some way on a four game winning streak coming into today after winning a 4-0 shutout against the Sabres on Wednesday. On the year, they’ve struggled mightily on both ends of the ice, scoring only 2.29 goals per game on average, second fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.79 goals per game, the most in the NHL. The Sens aren’t a whole lot better at 19-26-5 but are coming off a 4-3 surprising win against Minnesota on Tuesday night. They’re not as horrible as the Habs have been but they’re a pretty shitty team, scoring an average of only 2.66 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.16 goals per game, eleventh most in the league. I’d slight lean Ottawa in this game to end the Habs win streak and I’d slightly lean the under but wouldn’t bet on either of them so I’ll just skip this shitty game completely.
Predators vs. Lightning (7:30)
The NHL heads back outdoors tonight in Nashville for this stadium series game between the Preds and the Bolts. Such a fun environment taking hockey to its roots. Nashville’s coming into today game with a good 30-18-4 record with back to back wins against Dallas and Florida. They’re scoring an average of 3.06 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.81 per game. Tampa’s still churning out wins at the same incredible pace that they have been the last two years as they won back to back Cups. This season they’re 33-11-6, coming into tonight’s game with a 12-3-1 record in their last 16 games. They’re scoring 3.44 goals per game on average, seventh most in the NHL and allowing just 2.76 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. Its always a question mark on how the weather for outdoor games will determine the pace of play. I will take Tampa ML here for half a unit though to get some action as they’re just the better, much more well rounded team.
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs (7:30)
Toronto got off their three game losing streak with a 3-1 win against the Wild on Thursday night, as soon as I stopped betting on this fucking team and they’re 33-14-4 on the season. The Leafs are really good on both ends of the ice this year (except when I bet on them), scoring an average of 3.53 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL and just allowing an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.77 goals per game. Detroit’s playing decent hockey lately with five wins in their last nine games but haven’t been great on the season with a 23-23-6 record. They’re scoring an average of 2.81 goals per game and allowing a seventh most in the NHL average of 3.46 goals per game. The Leafs won both of the previous matchups between these teams this season with a 5-4 win at home on October 30th a 7-4 win in Detroit on January 29th. I’d lean Toronto wins this one again too but since I’m retired from betting this team, I won’t have action on them (I don’t this -210 is a horrible price on them tonight though). I do like the over and will take the alternate over 6 for a unit.
Flames vs. Wild (10:00)
Calgary’s ten game winning streak as the hottest team in hockey ended on Thursday night with a 7-1 blowout loss in Vancouver. The Flames are 30-14-6 on the season with a 14-4-4 record at home. They’re scoring an average of 3.36 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and with Markstrom’s great play in goal, they’re allowing the second fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 2.42 goals per game. Minnesota’s a great team this season too with a 31-15-3 record but have been on a bit of a slump lately with only one win in their last five games. The Wild’s offense is electric, scoring the third most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.73 goals per game. They’re allowing an average of 3 goals per game though, not great. I’d lean Calgary gets back in the win column at home tonight, but not enough to bet on it. I’d also lean the over but not enough to bet on it. This is probably the best game on the slate.
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche (10:00)
This could be another preview of the Western Conference Finals. The Avs are the best team in the Pacific with a 38-10-4 record and last night came back from down 3-0 at home to the Jets to win 5-3 and have four wins in their last five games. Colorado’s offense is the second best in the NHL, scoring an average of 3.98 goals per game and have gotten a lot better defensively, allowing an average of 2.83 goals per game. Vegas is 29-19-4 and after their shitty 3-1 loss in Arizona last night, they only have one win in their last five games. The Knights are scoring at a decent average rate of 3.19 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of 2.83 goals per game. These teams split their first two games this season with the road team winning each, a 3-1 Golden Knights win on October 26th in Colorado and a 2-0 Avs win two weeks ago on February 16th. I think the Avs are the better team here but Vegas seems to have their number and the best team that matchups up with Colorado, so I see no edge in betting this game. I’d also lean the over with the way both of these teams have played but their head to head matchups all trend under. I’ll skip this game but it should be a good one to watch.
Sharks vs. Bruins (10:00)
The Sharks have sucked lately and even though they’re 23-22-6 on the season and coming off a 4-3 shootout win against the Isles on Thursday, prior to that game they were on a seven game losing streak with only one win in their last nine games. The Sharks are only scoring an average of 2.67 goals per game, ninth fewest in the league and they’re allowing a twelfth most 3.12 goals per game on average. The Bruins are 30-17-4 and on a three game win streak. They’ve been struggling to score a bit too, averaging 2.88 goals per game but the addition of Marchand and Bergeron back in the lineup have boosted that a bit. The B’s have been very good defensively, allowing just 2.73 goals per game on average, the seventh fewest in the NHL. The Bruins won 4-3 in the first game these teams played this season in Boston on October 24th. I think this win should come easier tonight for the B’s, even on the road and they should win again. I’m going hard on the Bruins here with three units on the ML tonight. I’d lean the under as well but not enough to bet on it.
Kings vs. Islanders (10:30)
Last night the Kings cruised through an easy 4-1 win in Anaheim and they’ve been playing great hockey lately with a four game win streak going into tonight and an 8-1-2 record in their last eleven games to improve to 28-17-7 on the season. They’re not scoring a whole lot, averaging 2.88 goals per game but they’ve dazzled defensively, allowing a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.67 goals per game. The Isles have been such a disappointment this season with a 19-20-8 record and they have just two wins in their last seven games. They’ve been great defensively as well, allowing the sixth fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 2.7 goals per game but they’ve been awful offensively, scoring only a fourth fewest average of 2.51 goals per game. On Long Island on January 27th, the Kings won 3-2. I’d expect another Kings win here at home and will take them for a unit along with the under for a unit, expecting both teams not to be able to score a whole lot.
1u Florida ML (-200)
1u Florida TT over 3.5 (-195)
.5u Florida/Oilers over 7 (-120)
1u Capitals ML (-170)
1u Penguins/Rangers under 6 (-122)
.5u Rangers ML (+145)
.5u Tampa ML (-175)
1u Toronto/Detroit over 6 (-136)
3u Bruins ML (-200)
1u Kings ML (-132)
1u Kings/Islanders under 5.5 (-129)
Record: 495-342-17 (+26.5 units)