Got reverse swept last night, going 0-4 to lose 7 units. Bad run lately for me on the NHL and I need to scale back my units on these games a bit and re-evaluate if I should be betting almost the whole board every night. As I’ve said, sometimes the best play on a game is none at all. Got to pick the spots where there’s the best edge with a good price to be successful with this long term. Still up decent amount on the season and still a lot of hockey left to keep crushing it. Tonight we have a big nine game slate.
Lightning vs. Penguins (7:00)
Great game here between two good teams to start off the slate tonight. The Bolts are just as good as they have been in their back to back Cup winning seasons and coming into tonight’s game on a five game win streak and a 35-11-6 record on the season with a 14-3-1 record in their last 18 games. The Lightning are scoring an average of 3.46 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL and they’re allowing a seventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.73 goals per game. The Pens are very good this year as well at 33-14-8 coming off back to back wins to the Blue Jackets and Rangers. They’re scoring 3.2 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL and they’ve been great on the back end, allowing an average of 2.6 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL. The road team won the two previous matchups this season between these teams in dramatic fashion with a 6-2 Penguins win in Tampa on October 12th to start off the season and a 5-1 Lightning win in Pittsburgh a few weeks later on October 26th. I’d lean the Lightning win this one at home tonight in what I expect to be a goaltending battle between Jarry and Vasilevskiy, but don’t see enough of an edge to bet this game. I considered going with half a unit on the Lightning ML but there isn’t enough value to bet on it and I need to stay off these close games.
Panthers vs. Senators (7:00)
The Florida Panthers are a fantastic team this season at 35-13-5 with a 23-6 record at home but are coming into tonight’s game with three straight losses at home to Edmonton, Columbus and Nashville where they outshot those teams 137-83 and essentially got unlucky to lose. The Panthers are leading the NHL in scoring, putting an average of 4.08 goals per game in the back of the net and they’ve allowed an average of 2.98 goals per game. The Ottawa Senators suck this season. They are 19-28-5 and have only one win in their last five games. They have struggled on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.62 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL while allowing an average of 3.16 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season on December 14th in Florida was a huge blowout, but not in the direction you’d expect as the Sens pulled off an 8-2 win. I think Florida gets back in the win column tonight but it’s not even close to worth betting on at -385, even in regulation at -230 or the TT over 4 isn’t worth it. I do expect there to be a lot of goals scored in this game with both teams scoring, especially the Panthers and will take the over 6.5 in this game for a unit.
Flyers vs. Wild (7:00)
The Wild have had a solid season at 31-17-3 but they’ve been on a terrible losing streak lately, coming into tonight on a four game losing streak with only one win in their last seven games. Minnesota has the third highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.67 goals per game but have allowed a twelfth most in the NHL average of 3.12 goals per game. The Flyers have sucked all season. They’re 16-27-10 and have just one win in their last eight games and just three in their last 23 games. Not only have they been even worse defensively than the Wild, allowing an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.4 goals per game, they also have been completely flat offensively, scoring a fourth fewest in the NHL average of 2.47 goals per game. I’ll take the Wild here to get off their losing streak with a win on the road for half a unit.
Capitals vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
The Caps have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NHL this season. They’re 28-18-9 and coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak, losing to the Leafs, Flyers and Rangers. They’ve scored an average of 3.16 goals per game and have allowed a tenth fewest in the NHL average of 2.8 goals per game. Washington’s a tough team to figure out because with those stats they should be winning more games than they are, but it’s clearly not translating. The Canes are one of the best teams in the NHL at 37-11-5. They’re coming off a 4-3 loss in the closing seconds of overtime in Detroit on Tuesday night but prior to that game they were on a five game win streak. Freddy Andersen has been great in goal this year with a 2.03 GAA and .930 save percentage and with that, Carolina is allowing the fewest goals in hockey, an average of just 2.38 goals per game. They’ve been really good offensively as well, scoring a sixth most in the NHL average of 3.47 goals per game. The Capitals got a 4-2 win in Carolina on November 28th the first time these teams met this season. I think the Canes are the better team in this game, they’re playing better hockey as of late and the Caps haven’t been able to win games. Carolina should bounce back from their loss to the Red Wings on Tuesday and I’ll take them for half a unit in this game.
Islanders vs. Canucks (7:30)
The Canucks have turned into a good team under Bruce (there he is) Boudreau and they are now 26-23-6 on the season. They got shit kicked 7-2 in NJ on Monday night but have five wins in their last seven games. The Vancouver offense has sucked all season, scoring an average of 2.75 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL but they’ve been good defensively, allowing an eleventh fewest average of 2.82 goals per game. The Isles suck, a huge disappointment this season with a 20-22-8 record and they just have five wins in their last 15 games. They’ve been very good defensively as well, allowing an average of 2.74 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL. In Vancouver on February 9th, the Isles won 6-3. I think the Canucks are the better, more rounded team but don’t think this game is worth betting on with them on the road. Both of these teams play similar hockey, not scoring much but not allowing a whole lot of goals, which lines up great to unders and I’m chalking up that first game between them last month up as an outlier. I’ll take the under in this game for half a unit.
Blackhawks vs. Oilers (8:30)
Chicago stinks this season at 19-27-8 and will absolutely be sellers at the deadline. They’re coming off a 4-0 shutout loss at home to the Blue on Sunday and have only one win in their last five games and only four wins in their last 16 games. Their offense has been completely flat, scoring an average of only 2.43 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL. Even Marc Andre Fleury (who is highly unlikely to still be on this team on March 22nd) can’t save this team defensively, as they’re allowing an average of 3.39 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL. The Oilers are coming off a 3-0 win in Philly on Tuesday (I split that game with a win on the Oilers ML and loss on the over) and they’re 30-21-3 on the season, going on runs of inconsistencies. They just have two wins in their last five games but those three losses are against Carolina, Tampa and Minnesota…all great teams. In the longer term, they have been decent lately with a 12-5-1 record in their last 18 games. These teams split their first two games in Edmonton this season with a 5-2 Oilers win on November 20th and a 4-1 Blackhawks win on February 9th, that was the last straw before the Oilers fired Dave Tippett the following day. I’d lean Edmonton wins this one on the road and would lean the over but don’t think either are worth betting on so I’ll just skip this game.
Flames vs. Canadiens (9:00)
Calgary’s playing the best hockey in the NHL right now, coming off back to back four goal wins in a home and home against Minnesota and they have only one loss in their last 13 games, to improve to a really solid 32-14-6 on the season to lead the Pacific Division. The Flames have been on fire on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of 3.46 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL and they’re allowing the second fewest goals in the NHL, an average of only 2.4 goals per game. Jacob Markstrom’s been amazing in goal this season with a 2.1 GAA and a .927 save percentage. The Habs are one of the worst teams in hockey at 13-34-17 and their shocking five game win streak came to an end on Tuesday with an 8-4 loss in Winnipeg. Montreal’s struggled to score the entire season, averaging just 2.31 goals per game, second fewest in the NHL. They’ve also been the worst team in the NHL defensively, allowing an average of 3.82 goals per game. They’re starting Andrew Hammond for his third game since acquiring him tonight, who was good in his first two starts this season, a 3-2 OT win against the Isles and a 2-1 win against the Sens, holding a 1.72 GAA and a .939 save percentage. I don’t expect that to continue against this GREAT Flames team. In a very surprising upset on November 11th in Montreal, the Canadiens beat Calgary 4-2. I’d expect the opposite of that happens tonight though. The price on this game is insane at -400 and even the regulation line is expensive here, so I will parlay that regulation line with the Avs in regulation for 2 units. Along with that, I’ll take the Flames TT over 3.5 for a unit.
Coyotes vs. Avalanche (9:00)
This is another very lopsided game. The Avs are incredible at 40-10-4, coming into tonight’s game on a four game win streak and the even more impressive part is that they haven’t lost two games in a row since the beginning of November. They have the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.98 goals per game and they’ve gotten much better defensively, allowing an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.82 goals per game. Pavel Francouz has been great in his backup role in goal, with a 9-2 record, 2.41 GAA and .921 save percentage. The Yotes are one of the worst teams in hockey at 14-35-4 but they’ve got two wins in their last four games, although those are only two of the four they’ve had in their last 15 games. They’ve scored the fewest goals in the NHL, a pathetic average of only 2.28 goals per game and have allowed a third most in the NHL average of 3.6 goals per game. The three games these two teams on polar opposite sides of the Central Division standings have played this season have all gone differently with a 4-3 shootout win for the Avs in Colorado on January 14th, a 5-0 blowout shutout win for the Avs in Arizona the following night on January 15th and then a 3-2 shocking Coyotes win in a shootout in Colorado the game before the All Star break on February 1st where the Yotes tied it up with just 38 seconds left in regulation. I don’t think this game is worth betting straight up or even in regulation on its own at those prices. In addition to my regulation parlay with the Flames in regulation, I’ll go with the Avs TT over 4 for half a unit.
Golden Knights vs. Bruins (9:00)
This game should be a lot of fun. The Bruins are 32-18-4 on the season and this is the fifth game on the Bruins west coast road trip. They’re coming off a 4-3 loss in Anaheim on Tuesday night that ended their five game win streak with Trevor Zegras scoring the game winner on the power play with just 22 seconds left in regulation after the B’s came back from down 3-1 in the first period. Boston’s scoring an average of 2.96 goals per game and they’ve been great defensively and in goal, allowing an average of just 2.67 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL. Vegas is 30-20-4 this year, dealing with injuries all season. They’re coming off a 3-1 win against their rival Sharks on Tuesday night but they only have two wins in their last seven games, both coming against SJ. The Knights have the twelfth highest scoring offense in the NHL, scoring an average of 3.17 goals per game, while they’re allowing an average of 2.89 goals per game. When these teams played December 14th in Boston, the Golden Knights got a 4-1 win. I’d lean the Bruins and the over on this game, but not enough to bet on either of them, so I’ll skip betting this game but will be sure to tune into it.
1u Florida/Ottawa over 6.5 (-137)
.5u Wild ML (-190)
.5u Carolina ML (-127)
.5u Isles/Canucks under 5.5 (-124)
2u Parlay (+107): Calgary in regulation & Avalanche in regulation
1u Calgary TT over 3.5 (-180)
.5u Avalanche TT over 4 (-121)
.2u Bonus Parlay (+28468): Florida ML & Florida/Ottawa over 6.5 & Tampa ML & Wild ML & Carolina ML & Isles/Canucks under 5.5 & Canucks ML & Oilers ML & Avalanche -1.5 & Calgary -1.5 & Bruins/Vegas over 5.5
Record: 511-361-19 (+17.89 units)
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