Another losing night yesterday going 2-6, losing 3.92 unit. I scaled back a bit yesterday and I’m scaling back even more tonight on this seven game slate so I can try to get how I’m reading these NHL games right.
Sabres vs. Wild (7:00)
The Sabres pulled off a 5-1 shocker win in Toronto on Wednesday night, that as a Sabres fan I loved to see to get off the six game losing streak that we were on. Buffalo hasn’t been good this season (as expected) and they’re 17-30-8. They’ve struggled on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.65 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.55 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL. The Wild are on the second half of a back to back, coming off a 5-4 comeback win in Philly last night…a game that with the talent difference should have never even been that close for Minnesota. That game ended the Wild’s four game win streak. Minny’s have a good season at 32-17-3 but they’ve sucked lately with only two wins in their last eight games. Statistically on the season, their offense has been great, averaging 3.69 goals per game, third most in the NHL but they’ve been bad defensively, allowing a twelfth most 3.14 goals per game. The first time they played this season in Minnesota on December 16th, the Sabres won 3-2 in a shootout. I doubt the Sabres can sweep the Wild this season and I feel like this is a let down spot for them after the huge win against the Leafs on Wednesday. With Minnesota on the second half of a road back to back, I don’t think the ML is worth betting at -200, but BetRivers gave me a 20% profit boost that makes this -167, which I’ll take for 0.6 units. I’d also lean the over and the Wild TT over but neither enough to bet on.
Lightning vs. Red Wings (7:00)
Last night the Lightning ended their five game win streak with a heated 5-1 loss at home to the Penguins that saw head coach Jon Cooper got kicked out of the game. The Bolts have been incredible this season, just as they have in their past two seasons where they won back to back cups. They’re 35-12-6 and have only four losses in their last 16 games. The Lightning have scored an average of 3.42 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL and have allowed a ninth fewest in the NHL average of 2.77 goals per game. On the second half of a back to back though, they’re likely starting Brian Elliot instead of Vasilevskiy though, who’s been inconsistent this season. The Red Wings just beat Carolina 4-3 in the closing seconds of overtime on Tuesday. They’re 24-26-6 on the season with just two wins in their last five games. On the season, Detroit is scoring an average of 2.91 goals per game and are allowing the third most goals in the league, an average of 3.57 goals per game. It was a very high scoring game the first time these teams played each other in the first week of season with the Lightning winning 7-6 in overtime in Detroit. I’d lean the Bolts win this one again but on the second half of a back to back and with Elliot starting, its not worth betting this game at the expensive -286 or even the -180 regulation line. I really like the over on this game and would go heavier on this if i wasn’t in such a slump but I’m limiting myself to .6u on the alternate over 6 on this game. I’d also lean the Bolts TT over 3.5, but again, limiting myself a bit until I string together some winning nights again.
Rangers vs. Devils (7:00)
This should be a fun game to watch in MSG tonight. The Rangers are very good this season at 34-15-5 with an 18-5-3 record at home. They’re coming off a 5-3 win against the Blues (loss for me) on Wednesday and have a 6-2-1 record in their last nine games. The Rangers haven’t score much, averaging 2.93 goals per game on the season but with Igor Shesterkin’s Vezina level goaltending (1.98 GAA, .940 save percentage) they’ve been really good defensively, allowing a third fewest in the NHL average of 2.5 goals per game. The Devils haven’t had a great season, they’re 19-30-5 and only have fives wins in their last 19 games. That doesn’t really encompass how they’ve been playing recently though as they’re scoring in droves. On the season New Jersey is scoring an average of 3.07 goals per game but over their last eight games, they’ve averaging an insane 5 goals per game. The problem is their defense and goaltending, that’s giving up an average of 3.57 goals per game on the year, third most in the NHL. On November 14th, the Rangers beat the Devils 4-3 in a shootout at home. This game’s all about the Devils offense vs. Igor Shesterkin. I’d lean the Rangers win it but not enough to bet this game. If Georgiev was starting that would actually make this game easier to bet since I’d take the over and the Devils TT over but with Igor likely getting the nod, not worth betting this one.
Hurricanes vs. Penguins (7:00)
Both of these teams played last night in complete opposite games. Last night’s game between the Penguins and Lightning got heated as fuck with the Pens winning 5-1 for their third straight win. Pittsburgh is 34-14-8 with seven wins in their last ten games. They’re scoring an average of 3.23 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL. They’ve allowed the fourth fewest goals in the NHL, an average of only 2.57 goals per game but tonight on the second half of a back to back, they’re giving Tristan Jarry the night off with Casey DeSmith confirmed in goal. DeSmith hasn’t been close to as good as Jarry with a 6-3-2 record, 2.99 GAA and .903 save percentage. Last night Carolina got shit kicked 4-0 by the Caps (loss) for their second straight loss, but they’re having a great year at 3-12-5 on the season with a 19-4-2 record at home. The Canes have been very good on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 3.41 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and they’re allowing the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.41 goals per game. These teams just played their first game against each other of the season just a couple weeks ago on February 20th in Pittsburgh where the Canes won 4-3. I’d slightly lean Carolina here but don’t see any edge to betting it. I’d also lean the over which would be my favorite play on this game but at 6.5 and juiced up, I’ll just skip betting this game.
Blue Jackets vs. Kings (7:00)
After a great run of winning five games in a row and a 9-1-2 record in twelve games, the Kings come into tonight’s game with back to back losses to the Stars and Bruins they’re now a respectable 29-19-7 on the season. On the season, LA is averaging 2.87 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the league but have scored an average of 3.5 goals per game in their last ten games. They’ve been very good defensively, allowing just an average of 2.76 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL. The Blue Jackets are 28-25-1, coming off a 4-3 win against the Devils on Tuesday and have a 10-4 record in their last 14 games. The Jackets are very good offensively, scoring an average of 3.26 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL. They’ve been horrible defensively and in goal though, allowing a second most in the NHL average of 3.61 goals per game. I’d lean the Kings and the over here but not enough to bet on either of them.
Jets vs. Stars (8:00)
I don’t think any two teams in the NHL play tighter than the Jets and Stars have this season with all three games they’ve played requiring more than 60 minutes to determine a winner with the home teams winning each of those; a 4-3 shootout win for the Jets on November 2nd, the Stars winning 4-3 in overtime on February 11th and 3-2 in overtime on February 23rd. Dallas has been decent this season at 30-20-3 and coming into tonight’s game with a 12-4-1 record in their last 17 games. They’ve averaged 2.87 goals per game and have allowed an average of 2.87 goals per game. The Jets are 24-21-9 coming off two “get right” wins against the Habs and Yotes to get off a four game losing streak. I’d lean the Stars win this one on the road and I’d lean the over but don’t think either’s worth betting on. I’ll continue with the trend here and bet this game to go to overtime at +340 for .2 units.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights (10:00)
Vegas has sucked lately, they’re 30-21-4 on the year but coming off their 5-2 loss at home to the Bruins last night and they’ve only got two wins (both against their rival Sharks) in their last eight games. The Knights are averaging 3.15 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.93 goals per game. The Ducks are 26-21-9 this year, exceeding expectations. They’re coming off a 4-3 win against the Bruins on Tuesday with Trevor Zegras scoring the game winner with just 22 seconds left in the game, their third win in their last five games but they only have those three wins in their last nine games. Anaheim’s scoring an average of 2.88 goals per game and allowing 3 goals per game on average. The Knights are 2-1 this season against the Ducks and the home teams have won all three games. Vegas won 5-4 in a shootout on October 29th, the Ducks won 6-5 on December 1st and the Knights won 3-1 on New Year’s Eve. I’d give the Golden Knights the slight edge in this game on the road but not enough to bet on it with them on the second half of a back to back. I’ll take the alternate over 5.5 in this game for half a unit.
.6u Wild ML (-167)
.6u Lightning/Red Wings over 6 (-150)
.2u Jets/Stars to go to OT (+340)
.5u Vegas/Ducks over 5.5 (-125)
Record: 513-367-19 (+13.97 units)
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