Last night I swept the board on the small two game slate going 4-0 to win 3 units! Tonight we have one of the biggest slates of the season with 13 NHL games!
Sabres vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
I will be in attendance for this game tonight as Jack Eichel returns to Buffalo for the first time since being traded to Vegas after the Pegulas refused to allow him to get the surgery on his neck that he wanted. The Pegulas got lucky catching lightning in a bottle for the Bills and I’m very greatful for that, but they’ve been complete train wrecks of owners since taking over the Sabres a decade ago and this situation with Jack was the biggest example of that. Buffalo continues to suck this season. We’re 18-32-8, coming off two embarrassing losses getting blown out 6-1 at home to the Panthers on Monday and getting shut out 3-0 at home by the Kings on Sunday and we only have two wins in our last ten games. The Sabres have struggled on both ends of the ice this season, scoring an average of only 2.62 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL and have allowed a fourth most in the league average of 3.59 goals per game. Vegas has had plenty of injury issues this year and haven’t been all that impressive. They’ve got a decent 32-22-4 record and are coming off a 2-1 loss in Philly on Tuesday night where they outshot the Flyers 48-21 and couldn’t get the puck past Carter Hart. The Knights haven’t played great lately and have just four wins in their last eleven games. On the season, their offense has averaged 3.12 goals per game and they’ve allowed 2.9 goals per game. I feel like this team is trying to set themselves up the same way that Tampa did last year handling the Stone injury and long term IR the same way the Bolts did with Kucherov, just get in the playoffs and then tear up the post season when there’s no salary cap. That makes me not trust betting them much in the regular season. I’d expect Vegas to crush the Sabres in this true Jack Eichel revenge game. I’ll take Vegas in regulation for a unit here along with half a unit on Jack Eichel to score a goal, 0.2 units on him to score over 1.5 goals and 0.1 units each on Jack to score first and score last. I’d lean the over on this game but not enough to bet on it.
Bruins vs. Blackhawks (7:00)
This is a pretty lopsided game on a slate with a lot of them. The Bruins are playing really good hockey on both ends of the ice lately and are 34-18-5 on the season. They’re coming off a 3-2 overtime loss at home to the Kings on a shorthanded goal on Monday night but have been playing great recently, with a 7-1-1 record in their last nine games. The B’s on the season are scoring an average of 3 goals per game and they’ve been very good defensively, allowing the fifth fewest goals in hockey, an average of 2.68 goals per game. The Blackhawks are coming off a high scoring 8-3 win against the Ducks on Tuesday but they’ve been a pretty bad team this season at 21-29-8 and they only have six wins in their last 20 games. Chicago’s been bad on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of only 2.57 goals per game on the season, sixth fewest in the NHL but have scored at least three goals in five of their last six games. Even with a solid Marc Andre Fleury in net, the Blackhawks defense been leaving him out to dry and on the season they’ve allowed an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.43 goals per game. I like the B’s to win this game but I sure am not laying the -275 on the ML. I’ll go with a unit on the Bruins in regulation. I’d slightly lean the over at 5.5 but not enough to bet it, since I don’t expect the Blackhawks to be able to score much. I also looked at the Blackhawks TT under but don’t see any value to betting it with the 2.5 in regulation juiced up to -195, so I’ll just stick with the regulation line on the B’s.
Maple Leafs vs. Coyotes (7:00)
Betting overs on Leafs games has become an every game trend that’s been cashing in a ton lately. Toronto’s a solid team this season at 37-16-4 and come into tonight’s game with five wins in their last seven games. The Leafs have a potent offense, scoring a fourth most in the NHL average of 3.7 goals per game. The issue is defense and that’s why this team will likely get bounced again in the first round of the playoffs. On the season, Toronto is allowing an average of 2.98 goals per game but since January 1st, the Leafs have the worst goaltending statistically in the NHL. In their last ten games, they’ve allowed an insane average of 4.5 goals per game. That will likely get even worse for them as Jack Campbell will be out at least two weeks with a rib injury so instead of sharing time, Petr Mrazek, who hasn’t fared well with a 3.28 GAA and .890 save percentage this year will get the bulk of the work in net. Tonight the Arizona Coyotes come to town, who despite being one of the worst teams in the NHL with a 17-35-4 record, keep winning games lately. They’re coming into tonight on a three game win streak, scoring 9 and 8 goals in their last two matchups against Detroit and Ottawa and they’ve got five wins in their last seven games. On the season the Yotes have been pretty bad on both ends of the ice, averaging just 2.5 goals per game, second fewest in the NHL while allowing a sixth most average of 3.55 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season, the Coyotes grinded out a 2-1 win at home against the Leafs on January 12th, while getting outshot 46-18. I don’t see that happening again here. Although I’m definitely not betting them (probably for the rest of the season), I’d lean Toronto wins this game at home tonight. The over here is pretty much an auto bet for me and I will take the over 6.5 for a unit, the 7 and the 7.5 for half a unit each and the over 8 for .2 units.
Senators vs. Kraken (7:00)
Both of these teams suck and actually match up pretty evenly with both struggling on both ends of the ice. The Sens are 20-31-5 and are coming off a 4-1 win in St. Louis on Tuesday night (loss for me) that ended Ottawa’s five game losing streak. They haven’t been playing good hockey lately and only have four wins in their last 14 games. Ottawa has averaged just 2.61 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL and they’ve allowed an eleventh most average of 3.2 goals per game. Seattle’s inaugural season has sucked as they come into tonight with a 17-37-5 record on a three game losing streak with only one win in their last eleven games. The Kraken are even worse statistically than the Sens, scoring an average of just 2.56 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL and allowing the fourth most goals in hockey, an average of 3.59 goals per game. I’d slightly lean Ottawa wins at home and I’d slightly lean the over in this game, but neither are enough for me to even consider betting on in this garbage game.
Red Wings vs. Wild (7:00)
Minnesota started off the season great and have a 33-19-3 record coming off a 5-2 win against the Rangers at home on Tuesday, but they’ve had big time issues defensively as of late (similar to the Leafs), which has lead to them having only three wins in their last eleven games. The Wild have a very good offense this year, scoring a third most in the NHL average of 3.71 goals per game. The problems all year have been on the back end as they’ve allowed an eleventh most average of 3.2 goals per game on the year. The Red Wings got blown out in back to back games, losing 9-2 to Arizona on Tuesday and 6-2 in Florida on Saturday. They’re now 24-27-6 and they have just one win in their last six games but they have a winning record at home where they are 16-12-3. They’ve struggled on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of just 2.84 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL and they’re allowing the second most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.7 goals per game. In their February 14th game in Minnesota, the Wild beat the Red Wings 7-4. Both of these teams trend way over, especially lately and I’ll take the over 6.5 in this game tonight for a unit and the over 7.5 for half a unit. I’d lean the Wild get a win here on the road but not enough to bet on it.
Panthers vs. Flyers (7:00)
This is the biggest mismatched game on tonight’s slate. The Panthers are one of the top teams in the NHL with a 39-13-5 record and coming into tonight’s game on a four game win streak with an impressive 25-6. Florida has the best offense in the NHL averaging 4.12 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.88 goals per game. The Flyers come into tonight off back to back wins, getting a lucky 2-1 win against the Golden Knights on Tuesday and beating Chicago 4-3 on Saturday. They suck this season, with an 18-28-10 record and only five wins in their last 25 games (three of those wins in their last five). They’ve got an abysmal offense, scoring a third fewest in the NHL average of 2.52 goals per game and they’ve only been slightly better defensively, allowing a ninth most in the NHL average of 3.38 goals per game. The Panthers won both previous games between these teams this season with a 4-2 win in Philly on October 23rd and a 2-1 overtime win at home on November 24th. Florida should win here again at home pretty easily, the problem with this game though is the price. The ML is unbettable at -375, the regulation line is expensive at -220 and the puck line at -148 is too pricey for me. I’ll get a little fancy with it and take the Florida TT over 3.5 in regulation in this game for a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it, since I don’t want to rely on the Flyers to have to score on Bobrovsky.
Devils vs. Jets (7:00)
This isn’t a great matchup to me. The Devils are having a pretty lousy season at 21-31-5 but they’ve been scoring a lot lately and come into tonight’s game off a 5-3 win against Colorado on Tuesday and a 3-2 overtime win against St. Louis on Sunday. New Jersey’s offense has been good this year, scoring an average of 3.07 goals per game and in their last eleven games have averaged 4.45 goals per game. The problem with them, which has been the case all season is the defense and goaltending as they’re allowing an average of 3.53 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. The Jets have been pretty inconsistent this season with a 24-21-10 record but come off a huge 7-4 win against Tampa on Tuesday (loss for me). They have a 3-1-1 record in their last five games but have just those three wins in their last eight games. Winnipeg hasn’t been doing anything special on either end of the ice, averaging 2.98 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.02 goals per game. The Jets are giving Connor Hellebuyck the night off and starting backup Eric Comrie in net tonight. When these teams played in Winnipeg on December 3rd the Jets got a huge, high scoring win beating the Devils 8-4. I’ll lay the higher juice on this game and take the alternate over 6.5 for a unit. I’d slightly lean the Devils at home but not enough to bet on it.
Hurricanes vs. Avalanche (7:00)
This should be a great game between two incredible teams. Carolina’s 39-12-5 on the year, leading the Metro Division and they have a 21-4-2 record at home, coming into tonight’s game with seven wins in their last nine games. They’ve been great on both ends of the ice this season, scoring an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.39 goals per game and allowing the fewest goals in the league, just an average of 2.39 goals per game. The Avs lead the Pacific Division with their 41-12-5 record but are playing a lousy stretch with just one win in their last four games after their 5-3 loss in New Jersey on Tuesday. They’ve got the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.91 goals per game and they’re allowing 2.88 goals per game. I think this is pretty much a coin toss game and I don’t really see an edge on any bet for this game, so I’ll lay off it.
Islanders vs. Blue Jackets (7:30)
The Isles are the biggest disappointment of the NHL season with high hopes but coming into this game with a 21-24-8 record with just one win in their last four games. They’ve been good defensively, allowing just 2.77 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL and they’re getting good goaltending from Ilya Sorokin who has a 2.38 GAA and .923 save percentage but their offense hasn’t produced shit, scoring a sixth fewest in the NHL average of 2.57 goals per game. The Blue Jackets have been pretty inconsistent and play the opposite style of hockey than the Isles do. They’re 28-26-3, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak with only one win in their last six games after going on a stretch of winning nine games in their prior eleven. Columbus has a pretty good offense, scoring an average of 3.28 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL but they’ve been awful defensively with lousy goaltending, allowing an average of 3.65 goals per game. Early in the season, these teams needed overtime in Columbus for the Jackets 3-2 win on October 21st. I’m not touching this game with how differently these teams play. If it tends to be a more defensive game, Isles win at home. If its an offense game, Jackets win on the road. I don’t see any edge in betting anything here.
Blues vs. Rangers (8:00)
This is an interesting game between two of the best goaltenders in the NHL. The Rangers are coming off a 5-2 loss in Minnesota on Tuesday, which I had sort of expected with them starting Georgiev in that game, but they’ve had a really good season at 36-16-5 and in their last twelve games the Rags hold an 8-3-1 record. Igor Shesterkin, after having the night is back in goal tonight to continue his insane season that could even give him Hart Trophy consideration along with his guaranteed Vezina win with his crazy 1.93 GAA and possible record breaking .942 save percentage. With Igor’s play in goal, thats how the Rangers win games, as they’re allowing a third fewest in the NHL average of 2.49 goals per game but are just scoring an average of 2.93 goals per game. The Blues are having a good season as well with a 32-17-7 record but after their 4-1 loss to the Senators (loss for me) at home on Tuesday, they’re on a four game losing streak coming into tonight. The St. Louis offense has been very good this season, scoring an average of 3.45 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. They’ve also been very good defensively, allowing a seventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.73 goals per game. Ville Husso, who’s starting in goal tonight re-invented himself this year and is now one of the top goalies in the NHL with a 2.17 GAA and .930 save percentage. In their first matchup on March 2nd, I lost on the under with the Rangers 5-3 win in MSG. I’d slightly lean they win here again but not enough to bet on. I will go back to the under though with a unit on the under 6 in regulation.
Predators vs. Ducks (8:00)
The Ducks exceeded my expectations for the season in a big way this year with a 27-23-9 record but they haven’t been great lately, coming off an 8-3 loss in Chicago on Tuesday with just two wins in their last six games. They’ve scored an average of 2.9 goals per game and allowed an average of 3.1 goals per game, putting them in the bottom third of the NHL in both of those categories. Nashville’s having a solid year at 32-20-4 coming into tonight’s game with back to back wins against Dallas (2-1) on Tuesday and the Sharks (8-0) on Saturday and they have four wins in their last six. The Preds offense is averaging 3.11 goals per game and where they really excel is on the back end with Juuse Saros’ goaltending (2.41 GAA, .924 save percentage) and they are allowing an eighth fewest in the NHL average of 2.75 goals per game. On November 22nd, the Predators beat the Ducks 3-2 at home in the first game these teams played this season. The Preds should win again tonight at home in Smashville but at -186, I don’t think there’s value on betting on it. I’d also slightly lean the under but not enough to bet on it since I think this game ends up having around 5-6 goals.
Flames vs. Lightning (9:00)
This should be an awesome game in Calgary tonight of what could be a preview of the Stanley Cup Finals this team between two legit Cup contenders both coming off losses on Tuesday night. The Pacific leading 34-15-7 Flames are the hottest team in hockey recently and although they lost 5-4 at home to the Caps on Tuesday, in their last 20 games they have an insane 16-3-1 record. They’re a great team on both ends of the ice, scoring a fifth most in the NHL average of 3.48 goals per game while allowing the second fewest goals in hockey, an average of just 2.48 per game. Jacob Markstrom who’s projected in goal tonight for them is having a fantastic season with a 2.14 GAA and .926 save percentage. The Lightning are still riding just as hot as they were the last two years where they won back to back Stanley Cups, showing no signs of slowing down with a 37-13-6 record. The loss 7-4 in Winnipeg on Tuesday night but in their last 20 games have a 14-5-1 record. The Bolts offense is buzzing, averaging a sixth best in the NHL, 3.46 goals per game and allowing an eleventh fewest average of 2.82 gals per game with Vasilevskiy’s 2.39 GAA and .918 save percentage. This should be a close game that to me is essentially a coin flip with two teams that should match up very closely. I’d slightly lean the over in this game but not enough to bet on it. I’ll stay off this game but will be sure to tune in for it.
Kings vs. Sharks (10:30)
The LA Kings are 32-19-7 and currently playing their best hockey of the season, coming back home after three straight road wins, most recently a 3-2 overtime win in Boston on Monday night on Andreas Anthanasiou’s shorthanded game winner. In their last 15 games, they hold a very respectable 11-3-1 record. They’ve struggled to score on the season, averaging just 2.9 goals per game but they have been scoring lately with an average 3.46 in their last 13 games. All year they have been great defensively allowing a sixth fewest in the NHL average of 2.71 goals per game. The Sharks have been horrible recently with only two wins in their last 13 games for them to drop to 24-25-7 on the season. Their biggest issue is offense as they’ve only scored a fourth fewest in the NHL average of 2.55 goals per game. They haven’t been great defensively either, allowing an average of 3.16 goals per game. Rookie Zach Sawchenko gets the start again tonight in goal, who hasn’t been very good with a 3.17 GAA and a .908 save percentage. The first time these California teams played this season, the Kings blew out the Sharks 6-2 in San Jose on January 17th. I’ll lay the juice on the ML on the Kings for a unit. The Sharks keep losing in OT so I’d rather not limit myself to regulation here.
1u Vegas in regulation (-137)
.5u Jack Eichel over 0.5 goals (+130)
.2u Jack Eichel over 1.5 goals (+650)
.1u Jack Eichel: first goal scorer (+1050)
.1u Jack Eichel: last goal scorer (+1050)
1u Bruins in regulation (-162)
1u Leafs/Coyotes over 6.5 (-132)
.5u Leafs/Coyotes over 7 (+112)
.5u Leafs/Coyotes over 7.5 (+163)
.2u Leafs/Coyotes over 8 (+225)
1u Wild/Red Wings over 6.5 (-125)
.5u Wild/Red Wings over 7.5 (+185)
1u Florida TT over 3.5 in regulation (-190)
1u Devils/Jets over 6.5 (-143)
1u Rangers/Blues under 6 in regulation (-167)
1u Kings ML (-210)
Record: 540-385-20 (+22.13 units)