Valspar Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Copperhead Course (Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club) – Tampa, FL

Course Breakdown

7340 yd. Par 71, 5 Par 3s and 4 Par 5s, typically top 5 most difficult course on tour, deceptively long, typically windy event (average ~15 mph), plotters course, overseeded Bermuda grass throughout, less than driver course on a majority of holes, 4 of the Par 3s are over 200 yds, all the Par 5s are longer than 550 yards, 7 of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yds, average fairways to hit (~62%), severe dog legs, tight tree lined fairways which get extremely narrow the farther from the tee box especially around the 300 yd. mark so a lot of golfers will go less than driver on a majority of holes and the average driving distance is in the lowest 6 on Tour (271 yds vs. tour average 282 yds), lot of changes in elevation, 74 bunkers, 8 water hazards, harder than average greens to hit (~62%), firm smaller greens with average speeds with lots of back to front slopes, lowest birdie+ % of any course on tour, 2nd most 3 putts inside 5 feet since 2011 (behind Riviera)

Tournament Notes

  • The Snake Pit (holes 16-18) is one of the hardest 3 hole stretches on tour with 16 as one of the top 10 hardest holes on tour, no winner has ever played it better than even par (Paul Casey three years ago was +1 on the Snake Pit for the week)
  • 13 of the last 14 winners here had a T10 that season leading up to their victory
  • 2 of the last 5 winners here had a MC at this event the year prior to winning, so don’t put as much stock into some MCs here since its a very hard course
  • Cut line has not been under par since 2003
  • With the late Monday finish of THE PLAYERS last week, some players that made the cut there and are playing this event may WD and I’m not putting a whole lot of stock into the results of that crazy event

Key Stats

Approach, Ballstriking, Bogie Avoidance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yds (23.9%), 200+ yds (23.2%)

Field

144 golfers – pretty good field strength, especially for this event

Defending Champion: Sam Burns (-17)

Runner Up Last Year: Keegan Bradley (-14)

One and Done: Viktor Hovland

Players

Justin Thomas: 11000: +1000 – 33,6,8,20 his last four events, 13th here last year and MC,18,10 finishes his three other times here (2015-2017 before he was an elite golfer), 4th in approach, 2nd in ballstriking, 35th in Par 3 scoring, 41st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 1st in proximity 175-200 yds, 1st in proximity 150-175 yds, 3rd in proximity 200+ yds, 9th in bogie avoidance, 28th in SG: ARG, 63rd in putting, not worth betting on at this price after the THE PLAYERS

Viktor Hovland: 10800: +1100 – 9,2,4,MC his last four events, 3rd here last year his first time here, 1st in approach, 1st in ballstriking, 18th in Par 3 scoring, 13th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 28th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 4th in proximity 175-200 yds, 6th in proximity 150-175 yds, 2nd in proximity 200+ yds, 27th in bogie avoidance, 144th (dead last in the field) in SG: ARG, 65th in putting, not worth betting on at this price after the THE PLAYERS

Shane Lowry: 9700: +3000 – 13,2 his last two events, 49th his only time here in 2018, 5th in approach, 10th in ballstriking, 31st in Par 3 scoring, 57h in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 6th in proximity 175-200 yds, 19th in proximity 150-175 yds, 24th in proximity 200+ yds, 8th in bogie avoidance, 16th in SG: ARG, 48th in putting

Sam Burns: 9600: +2200 – 26,9 his last two events, defending champion, 30,12 his two times here prior, 17th in approach, 13th in ballstriking, 8th in Par 3 scoring, 1st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 45th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 104th in proximity 175-200 yds, 59th in proximity 150-175 yds, 36th in proximity 200+ yds, 1st in bogie avoidance, 46th in SG: ARG, 19th in putting

Russell Knox: 8100: +6000 – 6 (at THE PLAYERS),55,33,33,33,MC,7 his last seven events this season, 21,24,16,MC,56,33,25 his seven times here, 6th in approach, 4th in ballstriking, 23rd in Par 3 scoring, 69th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 25th in Par 4 scoring, 12th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 29th in proximity 175-200 yds, 4th in proximity 150-175 yds, 26th in proximity 200+ yds, 33rd in bogie avoidance, 92nd in SG: ARG, 140th in putting

Martin Laird: 7200: +14000 – MC,42,39,14,56 his last five events, 4 MCs his last four times here (and a 33 before that), 18th in approach, 14th in ballstriking, 13th in Par 3 scoring, 13th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 87th in Par 4 scoring, 62nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 42nd in proximity 175-200 yds, 6th in proximity 150-175 yds, 3rd in proximity 200+ yds, 23rd in bogie avoidance, 39th in SG: ARG, 135th in putting

Model

Approach (20%)

Ballstriking (10%)

Par 3 scoring (10%)

Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds (5%)

Par 4 scoring (10%)

Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds (5%)

Proximity 175-200 yds (10%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (5%)

Proximity 200+ yds (5%)

Bogie avoidance (10%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Slight advantage on Draftkings Showdown slates on players starting on 1 instead of 10, since they have a higher chance at getting the three birdies in a row streak. But this isn’t too much of an advantage with how difficult this course is.

Bets

Outrights

.28u Sam Burns (+2200)

.2u Shane Lowry (+3000)

.1u Russell Knox (+6000)

.06u Martin Laird (+14000)

T5s

.2u Shane Lowry (+600)

.06u Martin Laird (+3500)

T6s

.28u Sam Burns (+440)

.1u Russell Knox (+1200)


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