Last night I got my ass kicked on the big NHL slate, going 6-9 to lose 8.43 units. Let’s bounce back big on tonight’s six game slate.
Senators vs. Flyers (7:00)
What a shitty game this is. My biggest loss of last night was the Preds losing 5-4 to the Flyers with two goals from Philly in the last five minutes of the game. The Flyers have sucked this season at 19-30-11 and including last night’s victory, they only have six wins in their last 30 games. They’ve sucked on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 2.55 goals per game, second fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.43 goals per game, eighth most in the league. Flyers long time captain Claude Giroux will be kept out of the lineup tonight in anticipation of his coming trade to likely the Florida Panthers. The Sens suck too. They’re 21-34-5, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak with just two wins in their last ten games. They’ve sucked on both ends as well but are slightly better than the Flyers on both ends. They’re averaging 2.62 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.28 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season on December 18th, the Flyers won 4-3 in overtime at home in a tight game. I think the winner of this game is essentially a coin flip that’s not worth betting in either direction. I’d give a slight edge to the Senators at home after last night’s big win for the Flyers. I do like the over with two lousy defenses that can’t keep the puck out of the back of the net, even with lousy offenses. I’ll take the over 6 in this game for half a unit.
Hurricanes vs. Capitals (7:00)
This should be an awesome game. The Caps got a huge win last night in Columbus, winning 7-2 (double winner for me on the TT and over) for their third straight win. They’re 34-18-10 on the season and playing great lately with a 6-0-1 record in their last seven games. They’ve been really good on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 3.31 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and allowing a ninth fewest in the NHL average of 2.77 goals per game. The Canes are an even better team. They’re 41-14-5 on the season with a 23-4-2 record at home. Last night they outshot the Leafs 36-21 but lost 3-2 with Erik Kallgren having another great game in goal for Toronto. That was Carolina’s second straight loss but prior to those two games were on a 9-1-1 run in their previous eleven. They’re slightly better than the Caps offensively, averaging a ninth best in the NHL, 3.32 goals per game. Carolina’s the best team in the NHL defensively, allowing just 2.37 goals per game on average. The Caps are 2-0 on the season against Carolina, winning 4-2 on the road on November 28th and then in a 4-0 shutout at home on March 3rd. I’d lean the Hurricanes win this one at home with both teams on the second half of a back to back and would also lean the over, but neither have enough of an edge for me to bet on it. So I’ll stay away from this game.
Jets vs. Bruins (8:00)
The Bruins have been playing great hockey lately and although they’re coming off a 4-2 loss in Minnesota on Wednesday (loss for me) that ended their three game win streak, Boston has a 10-2-1 record in their last 13 games to improve to 37-19-5 on the season. They’re chasing down the Leafs for the third playoff spot in the Atlantic so every point matters. The B’s have been great defensively, allowing a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.67 goals per game and they’re scoring an average of 2.98 goals per game. The Jets are pretty inconsistent on the season with a 28-23-10 record but they’re playing good hockey lately, coming off a 7-3 win against Vegas on Tuesday and they have a 6-2-1 record in their last nine games. They’ve averaged 3.03 goals per game on the season and they’ve allowed an average of 3.02 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season, the B’s got a 3-2 win at home on January 22nd. I think the Bruins are the better team in this matchup and should get another win on the road against the Jets tonight. I’ll take the Bruins here for a unit at around even money. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
Flames vs. Sabres (9:00)
My Sabres got their asses kicked last night in Edmonton, losing 6-1. We’re 22-33-8 on the season but haven’t played awful lately with four wins in our last seven games. Buffalo’s sucked on both ends of the ice this season, scoring an average of just 2.64 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL and allowing a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 3.56 goals per game. Calgary’s great this season at 37-16-7 and a very well rounded and complete team that could win the Stanley Cup. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league lately, coming off a big 6-3 win against the Devils on Wednesday (triple winner) and they have a 17-3-1 record in their last 21 games. Calgary’s been great on both ends of the ice, allowing a second fewest in the NHL average of just 2.43 goals per game and scoring an average of 3.47 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL. In Buffalo back on November 18th, the Flames got a big 5-0 win on the road and especially with the Sabres coming off that 6-1 loss in Edmonton last night on the second half of a back to back, Calgary should get another easy win against them tonight. The moneyline price at -385 is never worth it to me. I’ll lay the juice on the regulation line for a unit and 2 units on the Flames TT over 3.5. I’d lean the over in this game but not enough to bet on it where you’d have to rely on the Sabres scoring on Markstrom on the second half of a back to back.
Ducks vs. Panthers (10:00)
Florida let me down last night, losing 5-3 in Vegas. I lost the Panthers ML and TT but at least the over hit. Despite losing that game and losing 3-2 in LA on Saturday, they’re still one of the top teams in the NHL at 41-14-6 with a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games. They have the best offense in the NHL, buzzing with an average of 4.08 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.89 goals per game. The Ducks have been in a big time slump lately, coming into tonight’s game on a five game losing streak with just two wins in their last ten games to drop to 27-25-11 on the season. They’ve really dropped off from their hot start to the season, now averaging just 2.84 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.11 goals per game. I like Florida to bounce off their loss last night with a big win here. I’ll go with a unit on Florida in regulation and 2 units on the Panthers TT over 3.5.
Sharks vs. Avalanche (10:30)
The Avs are one of the best teams in the NHL at 43-13-5, coming into tonight’s game off back to back shutout wins against the Kings and the Flames. They have the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.82 goals per game and they’re allowing just 2.77 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. They’ve really shored up their defense and goaltending lately and can contend for a Stanley Cup. The Sharks are a terrible team, dropping to 26-26-8 on the season with just six wins in their last 23 games, coming off a 3-0 shutout loss in LA to their rival Kings last night. They’ve allowed an average of 3.1 goals per game and have been pathetic offensively, averaging just a fourth fewest in the NHL 2.57 goals per game. Scoring came easy for the Avalanche in the first game this season between these teams as they won 6-2 at home on November 13th. I’d expect the same results again tonight with the Sharks on the second half of a back to back. The ML is too expensive on this game but I’ll go with 2 units on the Avs in regulation and a unit on the Avs TT over 3.5.
.5u Flyers/Senators over 6 (-132)
1u Bruins ML (+103)
1u Calgary in regulation (-230)
2u Calgary TT over 3.5 (-195)
1u Florida in regulation (-134)
2u Florida TT over 3.5 (-141)
2u Avs in regulation (-167)
1u Avs TT over 3.5 (-159)
Record: 582-429-21 (+16.19 units)