Another losing day on the NHL yesterday, going 4-4 for -4.62 units. Tough month. Who would’ve expected the Sabres to put up such a great game last night in a double shutout 1-0 overtime win in Calgary and then in what could’ve gotten me to break even, Florida couldn’t score a goal in a boring 3-0 game in the third period to get my TT on them to win. Whatever. Onto today’s huge slate of eleven games.
Islanders vs. Stars (2:00)
The Islanders are actually playing pretty solid hockey lately, coming off a 2-1 win with a late goal against their rival Rangers at MSG on Thursday night (I split that game, winning the under, losing the Rangers) and they have a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games to improve to 25-24-9 on the season. They’re still highly disappointing of a team this season. The Isles are very good defensively and their goaltending from Ilya Sorokin has been solid and reliable, as expected going into the season, as they’re allowing a sixth fewest in the NHL average of 2.69 goals per game. The issue is their offense, that is only scoring an average of 2.69 goals per game on the season, ninth fewest in the NHL. The Stars ended their three game losing streak with a 4-3 overtime win on Thursday against the Habs (double winner, Stars and the over). They’re having a pretty good season at 33-23-3 but have been significantly better at home this season, holding a losing 13-15-2 record on the road. The Stars aren’t all that great on either end of the ice, averaging 2.9 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.95 per game. I’d slightly lean the Stars and the under in this game but not enough to bet on it so I’ll just skip this game.
Wild vs. Blackhawks (2:00)
The Wild are having a great season at 35-20-4, but they have had their struggles lately with just just five wins in their last 15 games. They’re coming off a 4-2 win at home against the Bruins on Wednesday and have played slightly better with a 3-1-1 record in their last five games. Minnesota’s offense is electric and they’re scoring the third most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.68 goals per game. They’re pretty bad defensively though, allowing an eleventh most in the NHL average of 3.24 goals per game. The Blackhawks completely suck, enough so that there’s talk that Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat might get traded along with Marc Andre Fleury. Chicago’s 22-30-9 this season and they only have seven wins in their last 23 games. They’ve been terrible on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging only 2.61 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of 3.41 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL. To make things worse for them today on the defensive front, the Blackhawks are given Fleury the day off with Kevin Lankinen getting the start in goal. He sucks this season wit ha 3.6 GAA and .885 save percentage. The Wild are already 3-0 this season against the Blackhawks winning 5-1 in Chicago on January 21st, 4-3 in overtime at home the next night on the second half of a back to back home and home and then winning in a 5-0 shutout in Chicago on February 2nd. I like Minnesota to win this one again today but at -265, I don’t think they’re worth betting on with how inconsistent they’ve been and I don’t see it worth limiting myself to just 60 minutes on this game. I’d expect Minnesota to be able to score pretty easily on Lankinen and I’ll take the Wild TT over 3.5 for 1.5 units. I’d lean the game over as well, but I’d rather not have to rely on the lousy Chicago offense to have to potentially score three goals.
Oilers vs. Blackhawks (3:00)
Edmonton killed my Sabres 6-1 at home on Thursday night for their fourth straight win to move to 34-23-4 on the season. They’ve got a very good offense lead by Connor McDavid (87 points, 53 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (84 points, 40 goals) and as a team they’re averaging 3.33 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL. They’ve been pretty bad defensively though, allowing a twelfth most average of 3.16 goals per game. The Devils are pretty similar, with a good offense but a bad defense and bad goaltending, but even worse on both ends than the Oilers. They’re 22-34-5 on the season with just seven wins in their last 22 games. They’ve been decent offensively, averaging 3 goals per game but they’re even worse defensively than the Devils are, allowing a fifth most in the NHL average of 3.54 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season, the Devils won 6-5 in overtime at home on New Year’s Eve in a high scoring game. I’d expect the Oilers get a win on this one, but don’t think its worth betting on at -230 on such inconsistent teams. I’ll take the over on this game for a unit.
Golden Knights vs. Kings (4:00)
The Golden Knights got off their five game losing streak with a big 5-3 win at home against the Florida Panthers on Thursday. Vegas is 33-26-4 on the season and they’ve sucked lately with only five wins in their last 16 games. On the season they’ve averaged 3.11 goals per game, but have only produced a little over 2 goals per games since Mark Stone went on long term IR. Their goaltending and defense has also struggled, allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game. The Kings are having a pretty good season at 34-21-8 in the weak Pacific Division, coming off a 3-0 win against the Sharks on Thursday night and have a decent 14-5-3 record in their last 22 games. They’ve only averaged 2.79 goals per game but they’ve been good defensively, allowing an average of just 2.71 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL. LA’s 2-1 so far this season against the Golden Knights with a 6-2 win at home October 14th, a 6-3 loss at home on December 28th and a 4-3 overtime win in Vegas on February 18th. I’d slightly lean the Kings win this one again but not enough to bet on them here. I will take the alternate over 5.5 on this game for half a unit.
Blue Jackets vs. Blues (5:00)
The Jackets have been a very inconsistent team at 31-28-3. They’re coming off a huge 7-2 loss to the Capitals on Thursday that ended a three game win streak for them. The Jackets have a decent offense, scoring an average of 3.24 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL but they’ve been horrible defensively, allowing a third most in the NHL average of 3.68 goals per game. Which lines up great for betting overs on their games. The Blues are a very good team at 34-17-9 but they’ve been quite inconsistent as well, coming off back to back overtime losses to the Penguins (3-2 in a shootout) and Winnipeg (4-3 in overtime) and they just have two wins in their last eight games. St. Louis has been very good on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 3.24 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL and allowing an eighth fewest in the NHL average of 2.75 goals per game. The Blues got a high scoring 6-3 win at home against the Jackets on November 27th in the first game between these teams this season. I’d lean they win again here in Columbus today, but not enough to bet on them and lay the -180. I will take the over in this game for a unit.
Coyotes vs. Penguins (5:00)
The Coyotes are one of the worst teams in the NHL at 20-36-4 but somehow they’re playing great lately with six wins in their last seven games. On the season they’ve only averaged 2.63 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL but their offense has come alive recently and in their last six games have averaged a very good 5.83 goals per game. They’ve sucked defensively all season, allowing an average of 3.53 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL. The Penguins are a great team this season with a 37-16-9 record with three wins in their last four games and a 6-2-1 record in their last nine games. They’ve been good on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 3.19 goals per game and allowing the fourth fewest goals in the league, an average of only 2.6 goals per game. Tristan Jarry’s been awesome in goal, holding a 2.31 GAA and .922 save percentage. On January 25th, the Pens blew out the Coyotes 6-3 at home. I’d expect a similar game tonight in Arizona with the Penguins winning a high scoring matchup. I don’t think the ML is worth it on the Pens at -275 but will take the Pens in regulation and the over for a half unit each in this game.
Canadiens vs. Senators (7:00)
This game matches up two of the worst teams in the NHL. The Habs have the worst record in hockey at 16-36-9 on the season and after a solid run of seven wins in an eight game stretch, since then they’ve only gotten one win in their last five games (1-2-1 record). Montreal’s been the worst team in the league defensively, allowing an average of 3.82 goals per game and on the season they’ve scored the fewest goals in hockey, an average of just 2.48 goals per game. They haven’t had much problems scoring though recently, scoring at least three goals in 13 of their last 14 games. The Sens are coming off a 3-1 win against the Flyers yesterday (I lost the over on that game) that ended a three game losing streak for them. They’re a terrible team as well at 22-34-5 on the season and have just three wins in their last eleven games. They have been bad on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.62 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.25 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. These teams played around a month ago on February 26th with the Habs winning 2-1 in Ottawa. I’d lean the Habs win again here and would slightly lean the over but neither are worth betting on to me, so I’ll just skip betting this shitty game.
Predators vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
The Leafs seem to have fixed their biggest issue of goaltending with rookie Erik Kallgren getting back to back wins against the Hurricanes (3-2) and Stars (4-0) in their last two games. He has a 1.2 GAA and .963 save percentage in those two games. Toronto’s 39-17-5 on the season but have been quite inconsistent recently with a 7-5-2 record in their last 14 games. All season their offense has been great, as expected when you look at the payroll of their top forwards and are averaging a fourth most in the NHL average of 3.67 goals per game. Their problem has been goaltending and defense, allowing an average of 2.98 goals per game and having the worst team goaltending in the NHL since January 1st. But maybe that’s fixed with Erik Kallgren and we only have a two game sample to see if that actually is the case. The Preds are having a good season at 35-22-4 and have an 18-11 record at home in Smashville this year. They’re coming off a hugely disappointing 5-4 loss in Philly on Thursday night where they gave up two goals in the last five minutes of the game but have five wins in their last seven games. Nashville’s averaging a twelfth most in the NHL average of 3.21 goals per game and have been really solid defensively, allowing an average of 2.79 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL. Juuse Saros’s has been great this season, with a 2.46 GAA and .923 save percentage. In their first game this season on November 16th, the Leafs beat the Preds 3-0. I’d slightly lean the Leafs here on the road, but wouldn’t bet on either side of this game. I’d also lean the over which has been crushing for the Leafs the last few months, but will actually skip over that today with Saros going against a hot Kallgren in goal that I haven’t figured out yet. So no bets here.
Lightning vs. Rangers (8:00)
This game has the potential to be a very fun game to watch tonight. The Bolts are a great team again off their back to back Stanley Cup winning seasons, coming into tonight with a 39-15-6 record, coming off back to back wins against Seattle and Vancouver and they come home tonight after a long six game road trip. The Tampa offense hasn’t slowed down at all this year, averaging 3.37 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. They’ve been very good defensively too, allowing a twelfth fewest in the NHL average of 2.8 goals per game with one of the best goalies in the NHL in Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.37 GAA, .919 save percentage). The best goalie in the NHL though is Igor Shesterkin for the Rangers, who’s starting tonight against the Lightning. Shesterkin’s the guaranteed Vezina at this point with a 2.07 GAA and .928 save percentage. With his goaltending, the Rangers are allowing the third fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.57 goals per game. They have struggled a bit to score though, averaging just 2.97 goals per game. New York is coming off a 2-1 loss at home to their rival Islanders on Thursday, giving up the game winner with less than three minutes left in the game. They’re 38-18-5 on the season with five wins in their last eight games. The Rangers won both previous matchups against the Bolts this season with a 4-3 win in a shootout in Tampa on New Year’s Eve and a 4-0 shutout win at home in MSG two days later on January 2nd. I’d lean the Lightning win this one at home today but to me it isn’t worth betting on at -200. I think this ends up being a goaltending battle between Shesterkin and Vasilevskiy, but don’t think its worth betting on with the Lightning offense and the Rangers having scored four goals in each of those previous games against Tampa this season. I’ll skip betting this game completely but this should be a great game to watch as a hockey fan.
Canucks vs. Flames (10:00)
Last night in an INCREDIBLE game to watch, the Calgary Flames took a shocking 1-0 loss in overtime of a double shutout at home against my Buffalo Sabres. Even though I lost a ton of money on this game with heavy bets on the Flames in three different ways, it was a thriller to watch. The Flames are 37-16-8 on the season and have been one of the hottest teams in the NHL lately with a 17-4-1 record in their last 22 games. They’ve been great on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 3.41 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL and allowing the second fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 2.41 goals per game. The Canucks are a really solid team as well. They’re 30-25-7 this season with a good 9-4-1 record in their last 14 games but are coming off a 1-0 loss to the Red Wings on Thursday night at home (triple loser for me). They’ve been good defensively this season and Thatcher Demko’s been solid in net as they’ve allowed an average of only 2.82 goals per game. They’ve struggled offensively this season, scoring an average of just 2.84 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. Recently though (obviously besides Thursday night’s game) they’ve been able to score, averaging right around 4 goals per game in their last 16 games. These two Pacific Division teams split their two previous games this season in completely different games with the home team winning each game. Their first game on January 29th, the Flames won 1-0 in overtime in a double shutout and their second game the Canucks blew out Calgary 7-1 on February 24th. I think Calgary’s the much better and balanced team and would expect them to win this game coming off last night’s loss and will take them for half a unit tonight. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
Kraken vs. Red Wings (10:00)
The Red Wings pulled off a shocker on Thursday night, winning a 1-0 shutout in Vancouver (triple loser for me) to end their six game losing streak. Detroit’s 25-29-7 on the season with a 9-17-3 record on the road. They’ve struggled to score, scoring just a twelfth fewest average of 2.84 goals per game. They have been even worse defensively though, giving up the second most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.71 goals per game. The Kraken have been an even worse team in their inaugural season with an 18-38-6 record with just two wins in their last 14 games. They’ve been even worse than Detroit offensively, only scoring an average of 2.55 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL and they’ve only been slightly better defensively, allowing a fourth most average of 3.6 goals per game. In the first ever game between these teams, the Red Wings won 4-3 in a shootout at home on December 1st. Both of these teams suck on both ends of the ice and I don’t really see any edge to any bet on this game. I think the winner of this one is pretty much a coin flip with the slight edge to Seattle at home and I’d have slight lean on the over. I’m not betting this game and have no interest in even watching this one.
1.5u Wild TT over 3.5 (-186)
1u Oilers/Devils over 6.5 (-140)
.5u Vegas/LA over 5.5 (-127)
1u Blue Jackets/Blues over 6.5 (-105)
.5u Penguins in regulation (-165)
.5u Penguins/Coyotes over 6 (-120)
.5u Calgary ML (-130)
Record: 586-433-21 (+11.57 units)
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