I got my ass kicked again betting on the NHL last night, not necessarily making the wrong calls but games just again, not going my way. No way to control that. It just fucking blows that I put all this effort on this blog every day making these picks, knowing that I know how to analyze hockey better than most but it not working out for me. Yesterday I went 1-8, losing 12.63 to drop to pretty much even (slightly negative) on the season, a huge collapse from the over 40 units that I was up on the season. Who would’ve thought Georgiev would have a 44 save shutout in a 2-0 Rangers win against Carolina or that the Caps would outshoot Dallas 38-23 but lose 3-2. Thankfully I have been successful earlier this year to get to that point to not be in a hole and I’m confident I end the season positive but man, this sucks. Tonight we have a pretty good four game slate. I’m still going to analyze each game and write each of them up but I need a break to stop the bleeding as I evidently can’t stop losing.
Canadiens vs. Bruins (7:00)
The Bruins are playing great hockey lately, coming off a 4-2 win in Winnipeg on Friday and they’re 11-2-1 in their last 14 games to improve to 38-9-5 on the season, just two points out from the struggling Leafs for the third playoff spot in the Atlantic Division. They have a great defense, allowing a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.66 goals per game and on the season they’ve scored an average of 3 goals per game. In the standings, Montreal is the worst team in the NHL at 17-36-9. They’re coming off a 5-1 win against Ottawa on Saturday for their second win in their last six games. On the season, they’re tied with Philly, averaging the fewest goals in hockey, just 2.52 per game on average. The Habs offense has played a bit better lately though, scoring at least 3 goals in 14 of their last 15 games. Defensively, they’ve allowed the most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.77 goals per game. Both times these teams played earlier this season, wins came easy for the B’s at home in Boston with a 5-2 win on November 14th and a 5-1 win January 12th. If I was betting on this game, I’d think the ML is too expensive but would lean the Bruins in regulation and the Bruins TT with a slight lean on the over.
Wild vs. Golden Knights (8:00)
The Minnesota Wild addressed their biggest need today at the trade deadline, acquiring reigning Vezina winner Marc Andre Fleury from the Chicago Blackhawks. Of course he won’t be able to play tonight but its a huge signing for the Wild who have been horrible defensively this season, allowing an eleventh most in the NHL average of 3.2 goals per game. They’ve been a great team offensively, scoring the third most goals in hockey, an average of 3.67 goals per game. Minnesota’s 36-20-4 on the season with a 19-7-1 record at home, tied with Nashville for the third playoff spot in the Central. They’re coming off two back to back wins against the Blackhawks and Bruins but they’ve definitely struggled lately with just six wins in their last 16 games, so bringing in Flower’s huge if this team wants to contend for a Cup. Vegas is coming off high scoring back to back wins as well, beating LA 5-1 on Saturday and Florida 5-3 on Thursday ending their five game losing streak and improving to 34-26-4 on the season, just two points away from Edmonton for the third playoff spot in the Pacific. They’ve sucked lately without Mark Stone with only six wins in their last 16 games. The Knights are averaging 3.14 goals per game on the season, but besides those last two wins, that scoring has been much less lately. They haven’t been great on the back end either, allowing an average of 3.02 goals per game. Vegas won both of their previous matchups this season against the Wild with a 3-2 win on November 11th and a 6-4 win on December 12th, both in the Fortress. With all the injuries for the Golden Knights and how both of these teams are playing, I’d lean the Wild win this one tonight at home and would likely bet it if I wasn’t taking the night off. I’d also lean the over.
Avalanche vs. Oilers (9:30)
The Oilers are coming into this game riding hot on a five game win streak. They’ve been pretty inconsistent this season but are 35-24-4. All their offense rolls through Connor McDavid (90 pts, 55 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (86 points, 41 goals) and as a team, the Edmonton offense is averaging 3.37 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. They’ve been bad defensively though, allowing an average of 3.16 goals per game. The Avs are one of the best teams in the NHL at 44-13-5 with a 24-3-3 record at home this season. They’re on a three game win streak of their own including two back to back shutouts in that span. Colorado has the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.84 goals per game and they have allowed an eighth fewest average of 2.77 goals per game. I’d expect the Avalanche get a win here at home and if I were betting this game I’d be taking the Avs and the over.
Ducks vs. Predators (10:00)
The Ducks are playing their worst hockey of the season right now, coming into tonight’s game on a six game losing streak to drop to 27-26-11 on the season. They’re scoring an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.8 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.11 goals per game. The Preds have been pretty good this season at 36-22-4, tied with Minnesota for the third playoff seed in the Central. Coming off a big 6-3 win at home against the Leafs on Saturday, they have six wins in their last eight games. Smashville’s averaging 3.26 goals per game, eleventh best in the NHL and with Juuse Saros’ top level play in goal (2.47 GAA, .923 save percentage), they’ve allowed a tenth fewest in the NHL average of just 2.79 goals per game. Nashville won both previous matchups they’ve had against the Ducks this season, both at home, with a 3-2 win on November 22nd and 4-1 win on March 10th. I’d think they sweep the season series tonight and would take the Preds here if I was betting on it. I’d slightly lean the under, but not enough to consider putting action on.
None, need to re-group
Record: 592-443-21 (-0.96 units)