I took the day off betting yesterday to stop the bleeding on my losing run lately, but it was a good sign that my leans were relatively successful last night. A big eleven game NHL slate tonight. Hopefully all these leans go well again.
Devils vs. Rangers (7:00)
The Rangers are playing great hockey, coming off a 44 save performance by backup goalie Alexandar Georgiev in a 2-0 shutout win against Carolina (triple loser for me, yay) on Sunday against Carolina for their fourth win in their last five games and they’re 40-18-5 on the season. They’re averaging only 2.94 goals per game but they’ve allowed the third fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.51 goals per game. Likely Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin’s back in goal tonight so they’ll have the best goalie in the NHL between the pipes with a 2.05 GAA and .938 save percentage. They won’t have to travel far for today’s game against the Devils. NJ is 22-35-5, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak, losing all three games on their Western Canada road trip dropping all of those games 6-3. They only have seven wins in their next 23 games with just one win in their last five games. The Devils are scoring an average of 3 goals per game and they’ve been horrible defensively, allowing a fourth most in the NHL average of 3.58 goals per game. The Rangers won both previous games they played this season against the Devils, winning 4-3 in a shootout on November 14th and 3-1 on March 4th, both at MSG. They should win again tonight in Jersey and if I was betting on this game I’d be on the Rangers ML.
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
Both of these teams have been playing good hockey lately with four wins in their last five games but this is quite the mismatched game. The Penguins are a great team at 38-16-9, playing good hockey on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging 3.21 goals per game and they’ve allowed a fourth fewest in the NHL average of 2.57 goals per game. Tristan Jarry’s been very solid in goal this season with a 2.28 GAA and .922 save percentage. The Blue Jackets are 32-28-3 this season and have been very inconsistent because they have a very good offense but a terrible defense and bad goaltending. They’re averaging 3.27 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL but are allowing the third most goals in hockey, an average of 3.68 goals per game. The Pens won both games they played in Columbus already this season with a 5-2 win on January 21st and 3-2 on February 27th. I’d expect them to get the win here at home tonight. I think the ML is way too expensive here at -345 and even the regulation line is pricey at -210. If I was betting this game, I would likely go with the Penguins TT over 4. I’d lean the over as well.
Capitals vs. Blues (7:00)
This has the potential to be a very good game. The 35-19-10 Caps are playing really good hockey lately and although they’re coming off a 3-2 loss at home to the Stars on Sunday (double loser) where they outshot Dallas 38-23, their first regulation loss in 8 games (7-0-1 in that span). Washington has scored an average of 3.28 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and have allowed a ninth fewest in the NHL average of 2.78 goals per game. The Blues are having a good season as well at 34-18-9 but come into today’s game on a three game losing streak, dropping one goal games to the Jackets, Penguins and Jets. They’ve been very good offensively, scoring the fifth most goals in hockey, an average of 3.52 goals per game. Defensively, they’ve been solid as well, allowing an average of 2.79 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. When these teams played in St. Louis on January 7th, the Blues won a 5-1 blowout. I’d slightly lean the Caps in this game but wouldn’t bet on it. If I was betting on this game, I’d likely just be on the over.
Hurricanes vs. Lightning (7:00)
Easily the best matchup on today’s slate with two of the top contenders for the Stanley Cup out of the East. Carolina’s 41-15-6 on the season and on a four game losing streak, most recently coming off a 2-0 loss to the Rangers at home on Sunday where they outshot NY 44-18 and outplayed them all game but couldn’t get the puck past Georgiev (triple loser for me). The Canes have allowed the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of only 2.37 goals per game and they’ve scored an average of 3.26 goals per game. The Bolts are 39-16-6, also coming off a low scoring 2-1 loss to the Rangers at home on Saturday with just two wins in their last six games. They’ve scored the eighth most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.33 goals per game and have allowed a tenth fewest in the NHL average of 2.79 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season on November 9th, the Hurricanes needed overtime to win 2-1. This one’s a coin flip game. If I was betting this game I’d probably go with a half unit on the alternate under 6.
Red Wings vs. Flyers (7:30)
Both of these teams suck. The Red Wings are 25-30-7 with only one win in their last nine games. Detroit has been better at home this season though where they hold a 16-12-4 record. They’ve been pretty bad on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of just 2.82 goals per game and allowing the second most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.71 goals per game. The Flyers have been even worse. They’re 20-31-11, coming off a 2-1 win against the Isles on Sunday (double loser for me, of course), just their second win in their last six games and just their seventh win in their last 32 games. This team is awful. They are averaging the second fewest goals in the NHL, just 2.52 per game and allowing a ninth most in the NHL average of 3.39 goals per game. The Red Wings won both games these teams played against each other with a 6-3 win in Philly on February 9th and a 4-2 win at home on February 12th. I’d lean Detroit wins this one again at home and I’d lean the over but neither enough to bet on them.
Islanders vs. Senators (7:30)
The Isles lost 2-1 in Philly on Sunday (double loser for me), their first regulation loss in seven games as they were playing a nice stretch going 5-0-1 in their previous six games. They’ve been a real disappointment this season with a 26-25-9 record. They have been very good defensively this year, allowing a sixth fewest in the NHL average of just 2.67 goals per game. Their issue this season though which has lead to such a terrible record is their offense, averaging just 2.68 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. The Sens have been horrible lately with only one win in their last five games and just three in their last twelve to drop to 22-35-5 on the season. They’ve been terrible on both ends of the ice, scoring even less than the Isles, an average of just 2.6 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL and allowing a tenth most average of 3.27 goals per game. The Isles won both previous games this season they played against the Senators with a 5-3 win in Ottawa on December 7th and a 4-1 win at home on February 2nd. I’d expect the Islanders get a win here tonight on Long Island and if I was betting this game I’d take the Isles in regulation.
Jets vs. Golden Knights (8:00)
Last night the Golden Knights got shut out 3-0 in Minnesota (which would’ve hit my lean on that game). Vegas has been terrible lately, falling off big time without Mark Stone in the lineup. The Knights are 34-27-4 on the season but have only six wins in their last 18 games. On the season, they’re averaging 3.09 goals per game but they’ve struggled to score a lot at times in the last month or so with all their injuries. They’ve allowed an average of 3.05 goals per game on the season. The Jets have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NHL this season at 29-24-10. They’ve won three of their last four games. Winnipeg’s scoring an average of 3.06 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.05 per game on the season. The Jets won both previous games against the Golden Knights this season in high scoring games. They won 5-4 in overtime in the Fortress on January 2nd and then 7-3 at home last Tuesday. I’d lean they win this one again and like the over as well.
Stars vs. Oilers (8:30)
The Oilers five game win streak came to an end last night as they lost 3-2 to the Avs last night in overtime. They’ve been playing pretty good lately to improve to 35-23-5 on the season. Edmonton doesn’t have much scoring depth past Connor McDavid (91 points, 56 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (87 points, 41 goals) but those two are so good that as a team, they’re averaging 3.35 goals per game, seventh most in NHL. They’ve stunk defensively though, allowing an eleventh most in the NHL average of 3.16 goals per game. The Stars have been decent this season at 34-24-3 with a great 20-8-1 record at home. They’re coming off a 3-2 win in Washington on Sunday (double loser for me) where they got outplayed but stole away the win (and the over) but just have two wins in their last six games. Dallas has scored an average of 2.89 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.95 goals per game on the season. The first time these teams played this season, the Stars won 4-1 at home on November 23rd. On the second half of a back to back on the road, I’d slightly lean the Stars win this one and would slightly lean the over but not enough to bet this game. This would be one game where I think the best bet is no bet at all.
Flames vs. Sharks (9:00)
The Calgary Flames have pretty much solidified themselves as one of the top teams in the NHL this season. They’re 36-16-8 with only four losses in their last 23 games. They’ve allowed the the second fewest goals in the NHL, just 2.4 goals per game on average and they’re scoring the sixth most in the NHL average of 3.44 goals per game. The Sharks on the other hand blow. They’re 27-27-8 and despite beating the Coyotes 4-2 on Sunday to end a three game losing streak, they only have five wins in their last 19 games. They’ve been pretty bad on both ends of the ice, averaging 2.6 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.11 goals per game. Shockingly, despite how mismatched these teams are, the Sharks have won both previous games between these teams with a 4-1 win in Calgary on November 9th and a 5-3 win on December 7th. I’d lean the Flames win this one tonight. The ML is so expensive at -330, but my bet on this game (if I was betting it) would be the Calgary TT over 3.5.
Coyotes vs. Kraken (10:00)
This is another bad matchup between two terrible teams. The Yotes are 20-38-4 on the season but have played decent lately with six wins in their last nine games, coming off a 4-2 loss in San Jose on Sunday. On the season they’ve allowed a sixth most in the NHL average of 3.55 goals per game and scoring an average of just 2.6 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL. They have been able to score lately though, averaging 4.74 goals per game in their last eight games. The Kraken are even worse in the standings than Arizona, with a 19-38-6 record, coming off a 4-2 win against the Red Wings on Saturday, just their third win in their last 15 games. They’ve been worse on both ends of the ice than the Coyotes have been, scoring a third fewest in the NHL average of 2.57 goals per game and allowing a fifth most in the NHL average of 3.57 goals per game. The Yotes got wins in both previous games they played against the Kraken with a 5-4 win at home on November 6th and a 5-2 win in Seattle. I think the Coyotes are playing pesky hockey lately and wouldn’t bet against them…but probably wouldn’t bet on them either here. I do like the over though and would slightly lean towards that, but would likely stay off that as well.
Kings vs. Predators (10:30)
The Preds are playing great lately. They’re 37-22-4 on the season and last night dominated the Ducks in a 6-3 win for their seventh win in their last nine games. They’ve been good on both ends of the ice, averaging 3.3 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL and allowing a tenth fewest in the NHL average of 2.79 goals per game. On the second half of a back to back tonight, Nashville’s likely going with backup David Rittich in goal, who hasn’t been great this season with a 3.03 GAA and .895 save percentage, a pretty big drop off from All Star Juuse Saros. The Kings are having a pretty good season as well at 34-22-8 but they have been inconsistent at times. They have a great defense and solid goaltending from their tandem of Quick and Peterson, allowing a seventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.75 goals per game. They’ve had their struggles offensively though, averaging 2.77 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. The Preds are 2-0 this season against LA with a 2-1 win at home on October 19th and a 4-2 win on the road on January 6th. If Saros was starting this game, I’d be on the Preds and the under, but with Rittich starting and the Predators on the second half of a back to back, I think skipping this game completely is the right move.
Penguins TT over 4
Capitals/Blues over 6
Lightning/Hurricanes under 6
Islanders in regulation
Jets/Golden Knights over 6
Calgary TT over 3.5
None, taking another night off. Might jump back in tomorrow
Record: 592-443-21 (-0.96 units)