The exact score prop on the Flames game to close out the slate saved me as I ended up going 5-4-1 to just lose 0.35 units last night. Tonight we have another huge ten game NHL slate. Let’s make it a big winner!
Sabres vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
The Sabres have been playing their best hockey of the NHL season lately but are coming off their first regulation loss in nine games (six of those last nine games went to overtime) as they lost 5-3 to Florida at home on Sunday. That game was pretty close the entire game with the Sabres pretty much ending it for themselves by taking two penalties within the last three minutes of the game. Buffalo hasn’t been great this season at 25-34-11 but in their last twelve games they have a decent 7-3-2 record. Statistically on the season they have not b been good on either end of the ice. They’re averaging just 2.71 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL but they’ve lit the lamp a decent amount lately, averaging 3.71 goals per game in their last seven games. On the season they’ve allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. The Hurricanes are a great team this season, leading the Metropolitan Division with a 45-16-8 record. They’re coming off a 3-1 loss at home to the Wild on Saturday (double winner on the Wild +1.5 and under) but have a 4-1-2 record in their last seven games. Carolina has the best defense in the NHL this season, allowing the fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 2.35 goals per game. Frederik Andersen’s been great in goal for them with a 2.03 GAA and .928 save percentage and he’s confirmed in goal tonight. They’ve been very good offensively as well, averaging 3.32 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season in Carolina on December 4th, the Canes blew out the Sabres 6-2. I’d expect they win this one on the road tonight but the Sabres keep it much closer. I don’t think the -275 price is worth betting in this game and although I’d lean the Canes win, I also don’t mind the Sabres +1.5 around even money (that might be a bit of hometown bias since I’m thrilled that my team is actually playing entertaining hockey. I’ll just lay off this game and skip it. Let’s Go Sabres!
Canadiens vs. Senators (7:00)
These teams both suck this season but they’re both coming off losses. The Habs are the worst team in the NHL standings with just a 19-39-11 record. They’re coming off a surprising 5-4 shootout win in Tampa on Saturday night that ended a three game losing streak for them. They have the second lowest scoring offense in the NHL, only better than the Arizona Coyotes as they’ve averaged just 2.54 goals per game and they’ve allowed a second most in the NHL average of 3.77 goals per game, only ahead of Detroit. Ottawa’s pretty terrible as well at 25-37-6 but they’re coming off back to back 5-2 victories in a home and home with the Red Wings on Friday and Sunday with a 3-1-1 record in their last five games after going on terrible stretch of just one win in their previous six games. On the season, they have scored an average of only 2.65 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and have allowed an average of 3.22 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. The Canadiens won both previous games these teams played this season with a 2-1 win on February 26th in Ottawa and a 5-1 win at home on March 19th. I’d lean Montreal wins here again at home tonight but not enough to even consider getting any action on this game. I’d slightly lean the under, but again, definitely not betting this game.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Both of these are great teams coming out of the Atlantic Division…but I think Florida’s significantly better than the Leafs. The Panthers are the first team in the NHL to clinch a playoff berth this season with a 48-15-6 record. They have a 28-6 record at home and are on a four game win streak, coming off a 5-3 win Sunday on the road against the Sabres on the second half of a back to back after an epic four goal third period comeback in NJ on Saturday where they won 7-6 in overtime. In their last 16 games, Florida has a 13-2-1 record with one of those losses coming to the Leafs, 5-2 in Toronto on March 27th, the first time these teams played this year. The Panthers have easily the best offense in the NHL, averaging 4.12 goals per game on the season, scoring an insane average of 5.75 goals per game in their last four games. Defensively, they’ve been pretty good as well, allowing an average of 2.9 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. The Leafs currently sit in second place in the Atlantic with a 45-19-5 record, coming into tonight’s game on a five game win streak with an 8-2 record in their last ten games. They’re on the second half of a back to back tonight in the state of Florida (best state in the country), coming off a huge 6-2 win in Tampa last night where Auston Matthews scored a hat trick tied the Leafs single season goal record with his 54th goal of the season. Their offense is fantastic as well, scoring the second most goals in the NHL this season, averaging 3.8 goals per game. They haven’t been great defensively though and they’ve had statistically the worst goaltending in the NHL since January 1st. On the season, they’ve allowed an average of 3.01 goals per game. Rookie Erik Kallgren will start tonight and has a 2.71 GAA and .906 save percentage in his seven starts this season (4-2-1). These teams both trend WAY over on the season and I’m all about it again tonight as these teams face off and will take it, even at 7 for 1.5 units. In addition, especially with the Leafs on the second half of a back to back, I like the Panthers to win this game. They’re the better and more well rounded team, that should go farther in the playoffs as well (I expect the Leafs to get bounced in the first round) and I’ll take them for a unit.
Devils vs. Rangers (7:00)
The Devils have played terrible hockey, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak with just one win in their last six games to drop to 24-39-6 on the season. They’ve averaged 2.04 goals per game but have been one of the worst teams in the NHL defensively and all of their six goalies they’ve started this season have sucked, as this teams allowed an average of 3.68 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL. The Rangers are coming off back to back losses, most recently a 4-3 shootout loss at home to the Flyers on Sunday where they came back from down 3-0 with three third period goals to force overtime. They’ve had a great season though, currently sitting comfortably in a playoff spot in second place in the Metropolitan Division with a 44-20-6 record and they have an 8-3-1 record in their last twelve games. The Rags have averaged just 3 goals per game but they’ve been incredible defensively, allowing a third fewest in the NHL average of just 2.6 goals per game. Igor Shesterkin’s easily the Vezina winner for this season and the best goalie in the NHL with a 2.14 GAA and .933 save percentage, but he hasn’t played excellent his last few games. The Rangers are 2-1 this season against the nearby Devils with a 4-3 shootout win at home on November 14th, a 3-1 win at home on March 4th and a 7-4 loss in Jersey on March 22nd. I like the Rangers to win this final matchup between these teams this season to bounce off their last two losses to the Flyers and Isles and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to take either side of the total in this game.
UPDATE: Igor’s got the night off and Georgiev’s starting instead for the Rangers. So I will add the over for a unit.
Flyers vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
Both of these teams have played horrible hockey lately. The lowly 22-36-11 Flyers ended their four game losing streak with a surprising 4-3 shootout win in MSG against the Rangers on Sunday, where they blew a 3-0 lead and needed a fantastic shootout goal from Kevin Hayes on Igor Shesterkin to win it. This team blows on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of just 2.58 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL and are allowing an average of 3.51 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL. The Blue Jackets just played last night, where they lost 3-2 at home to the Bruins in overtime for their seventh straight loss to drop to 32-32-6 on the season. They’ve been very inconsistent since they have a decent enough offense, averaging 3.16 goals per game but they’ve been horrible defensively, allowing a third most in the NHL average of 3.73 goals per game. Columbus won the first matchup between these teams this season with a 2-1 win in Philly on January 20th in a boring grind of a game. I’d slightly lean the Blue Jackets to win this one on the road tonight, but with how lousy they’ve played as of late and that they’re on the second half of a road back to back, no chance am I betting it. I do sort of like the over though, expecting both teams to give up some soft goals and with both teams trending over and will take it for half a unit.
Penguins vs. Avalanche (7:00)
This should be another fun game tonight on the second half of a home and home between these two likely playoff teams after the Avs beat the Penguins 3-2 in Denver on Saturday night. I leaned the Avalanche and the under in that game, which both would have hit. Although they technically have not locked up a playoff spot yet, the Colorado Avalanche are pretty much set for first place in the Western Conference. They’re a fantastic team with a 49-14-6 record and coming into tonight’s game in Pittsburgh on a three game win streak with an 8-1-1 record in their last ten games. They have the third highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.75 goals per game and they’ve allowed a seventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.73 goals per game. Darcy Kuemper’s been great in goal for them lately and on the season he has a 2.37 GAA and .925 save percentage with five shutouts. The Penguins are 41-19-10 and are in third place in the Metro Division, but with how weak the bottom half of the East is, they’re pretty much locked in the playoffs as well. The Pens haven’t played too great lately with a 2-3-1 record in their last six games but they have a 7-4-1 record in their last twelve. They’ve been quite good on both ends of the ice as well. They’re allowing a third fewest in the NHL average of just 2.6 goals per game. Tristan Jarry’s having a great season with a 2.34 GAA and .921 save percentage. The Penguins have scored an average of 3.29 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. I’d slightly lean the Avs win here since I think their better offense gets them another win but not enough to bet on it tonight with them on the road in Pittsburgh. I will go with that under I leaned on Saturday with half a unit on the alternate under 6.5 in this game.
Red Wings vs. Bruins (7:30)
Last night the Bruins let me down as I went 0-3 in their game since it took them until overtime at home to beat the Blue Jackets 3-2 where I had them in regulation and missed the team total and over by a goal. The B’s are currently in third place in the Atlantic and pretty much locked into the playoffs and playing for seeding with a 44-20-5 record. They’ve been one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now, coming into tonight’s game with a 17-3-1 record in their last 21 games and seven wins in their last eight games. Their offense has averaged 3.16 goals per game on the season, 13th most in the NHL and they’ve been scoring a ton lately, scoring an average of 5.2 goals per game in their last five games. Their defense and goaltending has been fantastic all season as they’ve allowed an average of just 2.65 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL. The Red Wings on the other hand have been completely horrible on both ends of the ice. They’re 26-34-9 on the season and come into tonight’s game on a six game losing streak after back to back 5-2 losses in a home and home against Ottawa Senators. They’ve been playing awful hockey with just two wins in their last 15 games. They’ve allowed the most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.86 goals per game and have scored an average of just 2.81 goals per game, 13th fewest in the NHL. Boston is 2-1 this season against the Red Wings with a 5-1 win on November 4th at home, losing 2-1 at home on November 30th and winning again 5-1 in Detroit on January 2nd. I’d expect it they make it 3-1 tonight against Detroit, even with them on the second half of a back to back. I’m going right back to the same bets I had on the Bruins in last night’s game again tonight with a unit each on the Bruins in regulation, the Bruins TT over 3.5 and the over 6 in this game.
Predators vs. Wild (8:00)
The Wild are playing incredible hockey on both ends of the ice lately. They are 43-20-5, in second place in the Central Division and coming off a huge 5-1 win in Washington, they have a phenomenal 9-0-1 record in their last ten games. They have the fourth highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.75 goals per game. On the season they have allowed an average of 3.02 goals per game but they’ve absolutely figured out all of their defensive problems as of late. In their last ten games, besides that 4-3 loss in overtime in Pittsburgh, they haven’t allowed more than two goals in any of those games and in that span, they’ve allowed an average of just 1.6 goals per game. Marc Andre Fleury is undefeated since being traded to Minnesota, allowing an average of just 1.33 goals per game in his four starts. On the season, the reigning Vezina winner has a 2.84 GAA and .911 save percentage with four shutout and that was with a non existent Blackhawks defense in front of him for most of the season. The Preds are coming off a 4-3 loss to the Sabres (in the most emotional game for Buffalo in years) last Friday but they’re having a pretty solid season with a 39-25-4 record with a 21-11 record at home in Smashville this season. They’re currently sitting in the 1st Wild Card seed in the tight Western Conference playoff race, tied with Vegas with 82 points with Dallas right behind them by a point. Nashville has been good on both ends of the ice this season. They’re averaging 3.2 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed a twelfth fewest in the NHL average of 2.9 goals per game with Juuse Saros solid play in goal (2.57 GAA, .920 save percentage). The Predators won pretty dominantly in their first two games against the Wild this season, both played in Minnesota with a 5-2 win on October 24th and a 6-2 win on March 13th. The Wild are playing great right now and I’m gonna keep riding that trend expecting them to flip the switch with a win on the road in Smashville tonight and will take the Wild for half a unit here. I’d lean the under as well, but not enough to bet on it.
Stars vs. Islanders (8:30)
Both of these teams are playing some of their best hockey of the season right now. The Stars are 39-26-3 on the season and have played much better at home where they have a 21-9-1 record than they have on the road this year. They’re just a point out of the playoffs behind Nashville and Vegas for the Wild Card spots in the very tight Western Conference playoff race so every game matters big time for them. They’re coming off a disappoint 4-1 loss in Seattle on Sunday night (loss for me) that ended a three game win streak for them but prior to that game, they were on a 6-1 streak in their previous seven games. On the season, they’ve played kind of boring hockey and have grinded out wins, averaging 2.9 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.97. The Isles are playing great lately too, coming into tonight’s game on a four game win streak with an 11-3-1 record in their last 15 games to improve to 32-27-8 on the season. Little too late for them to get hot though as they pretty much eliminated themselves from the playoffs with their terrible start to the season. In their last four games they have averaged a decent 4 goals per game, but on the year they’re only scoring an average of 2.78 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. They’ve been great on the back end though, allowing an average of 2.65 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL. When these teams played on Long Island a few weeks ago on March 19th, the Isles won 4-2. I think the Stars bounce back from their loss to the Kraken with a win at home tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit here.
Sharks vs. Oilers (10:30)
The Oilers have played awesome lately, coming into tonight’s game on a four game win streak, most recently blowing out the Ducks 6-1 in Anaheim on Sunday night. They’re 40-25-5 on the season with a 10-2-1 record in their last 13 games. McDavid (105 points, 65 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (101 points, 50 goals) lead the league in scoring and even with the Oilers lack of depth offensively behind them, they’re averaging 3.5 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL. Edmonton’s issues though that I think leads to a likely first round playoff exit (unless they play the Sharks) is their lousy defense and goaltending, allowing an average of 3.21 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL. The Sharks have played horribly in the second half of the season. They’re 29-31-8 and come into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak with just three wins in their last ten games (and two of those were against the Coyotes and Ducks). San Jose has scored just a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.63 goals per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.18 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL. The Oilers won both previous games this season between these Pacific Division teams with a 3-0 win in San Jose on February 14th and a 5-2 win at home on March 24th. I like them to win again tonight on the road. I’ll take the Oilers for a unit and will also take the over 6.5 and Oilers TT over 3.5 for a half unit each.
1.5u Leafs/Panthers over 7 (-134)
1u Panthers ML (-164)
1u Rangers ML (-143)
1u Rangers/Devils over 6.5 (-110)
.5u Flyers/Blue Jackets over 6.5 (-112)
.5u Penguins/Avalanche under 6.5 (-124)
1u Bruins in regulation (-129)
1u Bruins TT over 3.5 (-127)
1u Bruins/Red Wings over 6 (-120)
.5u Wild ML (-110)
.5u Stars ML (-130)
1u Oilers ML (-180)
.5u Oilers TT over 3.5 (-135)
.5u Oilers/Sharks over 6.5 (-120)
Record: 666-485-27 (+11.26 units)
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