The Masters – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Augusta National Golf Club – Augusta, GA
“A tradition unlike any other”

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7475 yds (plays a bit longer), avg. 65 sq. ft. firm and FAST multi-tiered bent grass greens with a ton of undulation, lush fairways with a lot of undulation which leads to the course playing longer than it is, 41 bunkers, 6 water hazards, rye grass, almost no rough, soft pine straw that you could hit out of as long as you don’t have a tree in the way, 6 of the Par 4s are over 450 yds, 13/14 par 4’s: you’re hitting driver, 11th hole got lengthened by 15 yards for this year and a bunch of rough got removed from the course, lots of changes in elevation on the course, experience here matters, first timers don’t win here, bombers have an advantage, right to left draw ball flight works best here (comes naturally for leftys, Spieth draws the ball well also), easy to hit fairways (~69%), hard to hit greens vs. tour average (~61%),  greens are average to above average in size but that is misleading since most greens slope heavily from back to front with difficult landing areas, tons of slope and undulation on very fast greens, Augusta has aerated greens and some fairways with a ton of drainage on the course, most greens are elevated and have large run offs and collection areas or bunkers around them, rain doesn’t effect it and isn’t much of a factor here like it usually is on other courses on tour even when there is a ton of rain

Tournament Notes

  • Course history affects play at Augusta more than any other course on tour
  • No winner has come from outside 50:1 odds in the last 8 years
  • Since 2012, Bubba (#18 in the OWGR that year) was the lowest ranked player to win The Masters. Even Danny Willett who was 100:1 in 2016 when he won, was ranked 12th in the World
  • Except for Patrick Reed in 2018, the past 24 champions made the cut at The Masters the previous year
  • Prior to Hideki last year, the prior 8 Masters winners before him has had a win or 2 Top 5s in their five events leading up to Augusta
  • Besides Hideki last year who only had one T15, the last 9 winners before him had at least two T15 finishes in their three tournaments leading into The Masters
  • No winner has repeated since Tiger in 2002 (along with Nick Faldo and Jack)
  • Jack was oldest player to ever win the Masters, at 46 years old
  • Last 22 Masters winners have made the cut the previous year (since Tiger in 1997)
  • The last time a first timer won the Masters was in 1979 (Fuzzy Zoeller)
  • Besides Hideki last year, the last 8 winners before him gained minimum of 13.4 strokes T2G in their two prior events leading up to their victory at Augusta
  • 7 of the last 9 winners were inside the Top 7 in SG: T2G leading up to the Masters
  • 5 of the last 7 winners ranked Top 5 the week they won in Approach

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: T2G, SG: OTT

Main proximity distance range: 175-200 yds (but a lot of elevation changes here make that not as accurate as other courses)

Corollary Courses

  • Emirates Golf Club (Omega Dubai Desert Challenge) – Danny Willett and Sergio won this and the Masters in the same year
  • Riviera CC (Genesis Open)
  • Quail Hallow Club (Wells Fargo Championship)
  • Correlated courses are not as much of a factor that I’ll be looking at with so much course history at Augusta

Field

91 golfers

Smallest field for a major and you could cut out a good 20-30 players (Sr. past champs etc.) that just aren’t gonna win – It doesn’t matter that Bernhard Langer is the #1 Sr. in the world…he’s not winning the fucking Masters

Cut: Top 50 and ties (no longer anyone within 10 strokes of the lead like its been in the past, that hasn’t been the case for the last 2 seasons)

Defending Champion: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)

Runner Up Last Year: Will Zalatoris (-9)

One and Done: Dustin Johnson

One and Done Considerations: Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth

Players

Justin Thomas: 10300: +1500 – First in my model over last 50,36,24 and 12 rounds, 21,4,12,17,22,39 finishes here the last six years, 3,33,6,8,20 finishes in his last five events, major champion, 8th in approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 3rd in SG: T2G, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 17th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 8th in Par 5 scoring, 6th in proximity 175-200 yds, 12th in driving distance, 26th in SG: ARG, 44th in putting, 3rd in birdie+ gained, 8th in bogie avoidance

Cameron Smith: 9900: +1500 – 10,2,51,5,55 finishes his five times here, 1st at THE PLAYERS,33rd at Genesis,MC at Sony and 1st at Sentry in his last four events, 9th in approach, 69th in SG: OTT, 16th in SG: T2G, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 15th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 5th in Par 5 scoring, 34th in proximity 175-200 yds, 56th in driving distance, 15th in SG: ARG, 1st in putting, 1st in birdie+ gained, 22nd in bogie avoidance, I feel like the price is lower than it should be here but I’m still betting it anyway and I’m using FanDuel’s T10 insurance on this one (money back if he comes T10)

Jordan Spieth: 9800: +2000 – Last week at Valero (finished 35th) he lead the field in SG: T2G and was second in approach but lost the second most strokes putting in the field, 35,MC,26,60,2 finishes his last five events, incredible course history here with 3,46,21,3,11,2,1,2 finishes his eight times here, 50th in approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 52nd in SG: T2G, 46th in Par 4 scoring, 64th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 44th in Par 5 scoring, 67th in proximity 175-200 yds, 36th in driving distance, 39th in SG: ARG, 75th in putting, 75th in birdie+ gained, 40th in bogie avoidance

Will Zalatoris: 9200: +2800 – 2nd place finish here last year in his Masters debut, 26,38,26,2,6 finishes in his last five events, 6th in approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 4th in SG: T2G, 37th in Par 4 scoring, 65th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 30th in Par 5 scoring, 48th in proximity 175-200 yds, 10th in driving distance, 46th in SG: ARG, 67th in putting, 30th in birdie+ gained, 5th in bogie avoidance, I saw prices as nice as +3500 on him but shopped around and liked the T7 for the each way (rather than T5) with the +2800 better to just lay a few extra dollars for the same payout

Sungjae Im: 8400: +6000 – 2nd place here in his 2020 debut and MC’d last year, 55,20,MC,33,6,11 finishes his last six events, 43rd in approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 13th in SG: T2G, 19th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 21st in Par 5 scoring, 42nd in proximity 175-200 yds, 39th in driving distance, 6th in SG: ARG, 19th in putting, 49th in birdie+ gained, 1st in bogie avoidance

Adam Scott: 8300: +5000 – former winner here in 2013, has played here every year since 2003 and only has 2 MCs here in that span with four T10s, MC,26,4,38,9,10 finishes in his last six events, 16th in approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 35th in SG: T2G, 26th in Par 4 scoring, 41st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 29th in Par 5 scoring, 19th in proximity 175-200 yds, 20th in driving distance, 79th in SG: ARG, 8th in putting, 19th in birdie+ gained, 20th in bogie avoidance

Corey Conners: 7600: +4500 – 8,10,46 here the last three years (missed cut as an amateur in 2015), 35,26,11,MC,38 his last five events, 30th in approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 11th in SG: T2G, 16th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 62nd in Par 5 scoring, 51st in proximity 175-200 yds, 55th in driving distance, 56th in SG: ARG, 52nd in putting, 42nd in birdie+ gained, 21st in bogie avoidance

Luke List: 7000: +12500 – First time here as a pro but technically not his first Masters since he played here as an amateur in 2005 and finished 33rd, 53,MC,MC,53,1,22 his last six events, 20th in approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 1st in SG: T2G, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 28th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 13th in Par 5 scoring, 4th in proximity 175-200 yds, 7th in driving distance, 2nd in SG: ARG, 88th in putting, 13th in birdie+ gained, 43rd in bogie avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

SG: T2G (10%)

Par 4 scoring (10%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (5%)

Par 5 scoring (5%)

Proximity 175-200 yds (10%)

Driving distance (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Birdie+ gained (5%)

Bogie avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • May want to leave salary cap on the table
  • DraftKings pricing isn’t as soft this year as it has in previous years for majors
  • Need to get 6/6 in the cut at a minimum to cash, need to hit 6 T10s to win big and the winner
  • Making cuts here should not be a factor in lineup construction and will almost play closer to a no cut event on DK
  • Need scoring points as well as placing points

Bets

Outrights

.5u Justin Thomas (+1500)

.5u Cameron Smith (+1500) – with T10 insurance for refund

.3u Jordan Spieth (+2000)

.22u Will Zalatoris (+2800)

.14u Corey Conners (+4500)

.12u Adam Scott (+5000)

.1u Sungjae Im (+6000)

.06u Luke List (+12500)

.25u Tiger Woods (+4800) – LIVE

T5s

.25u Tiger Woods (+960) – LIVE

T7s

.3u Jordan Spieth (+400)

.22u Will Zalatoris (+560)

.14u Corey Conners (+900)

.12u Adam Scott (+1000)

.1u Sungjae Im (+1200)

.06u Luke List (+2500)

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Brooks Koepka, Will Zalatoris, Corey Conners, Adam Scott, Sungjae Im, Luke List

Contests:

$15 Fantasy Golf Millionaire GPP (315,503 players)

$10 Giant Single Entry Double Up (2,873 players)

$5 Giant Single Entry Double Up (5,747 players)

$5 Single Entry Double Up (3,448 players)


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