Had my third monster day of pucks in a row yesterday, going 13-5 to win 5.13 units on the giant twelve game slate. Today we have a pretty good seven game NHL slate. Let’s keep this going for a fourth straight day of wins!
Capitals vs. Bruins (1:30)
Yesterday afternoon the Caps scored three third period goals to beat the Penguins 6-3 on the road in Pittsburgh for their second win in a row. They’ve played pretty well lately with a 10-4-1 record in their last 15 games. The Capitals are 39-22-10 on the season and comfortably in the second Wild Card spot in the East, 13 points ahead of the Islanders. They’ve been good on both ends of the ice, averaging 3.25 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL and allowing an average of 2.9 goals per game, 13th fewest in the NHL. The Bruins are coming off a 2-1 overtime win in Tampa on Friday night and they’re one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now with an 18-4-1 record in their last 23 games to improve to 45-21-5 on the year. That game put the B’s in third place in the Atlantic, just a point ahead of the Bolts. Boston’s defense and goaltending is some of the best in the NHL, allowing an average of just 2.66 goals per game, fourth fewest in the league. On the season they’ve scored an average of 3.13 goals per game but they’ve averaged 4.43 goals per game in their last seven games. The Bruins have won both games earlier this season that they played against the Caps with a 7-3 win in Washington on January 10th and a 4-3 win at home on January 20th. With Washington on the second half of a back to back, I’d expect the Bruins to win this game. I’ll go with a unit on the B’s money and half a unit on the over 5.5.
Penguins vs. Predators (4:00)
Both of these teams are coming off losses yesterday but have had good seasons and will both likely make the playoffs. The Penguins gave up three goals in the third period against their rival Caps to lose 6-3 for their fourth loss in a row and they have only two wins in their last nine games. They have had a good season though with a 41-22-10 record and they’re still in third place in the Metropolitan Division. Pittsburgh has averaged 3.25 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL and they’ve been very good defensively on the season, allowing an average of just 2.7 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL. They have given up an average of 3.56 goals per game in their last nine games though, which isn’t great and explains their losing run lately. On the second half of a back to back, Tristan Jarry will likely get the day off with Casey DeSmith projected to start in goal today. DeSmith hasn’t been great with a 7-4-4 record, 2.95 GAA and .905 save percentage. The Preds are coming off a 4-1 loss last night at home to the Panthers (I split that game, winning on Florida and losing on the over). They’ve played well lately with four wins in their last six games and have a 41-26-4 record on the season. That puts them in the first Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, two points ahead of Dallas and Vegas in the tight playoff race in the West. Nashville has the ninth highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.27 goals per game. They’ve been very good defensively as well, allowing an average of 2.89 goals per game. Juuse Saros, one of the best goalies in the NHL will likely get the day off today with David Rittich projected to start for the Preds today. He’s sucked with a 3.24 GAA and .890 save percentage. In Nashville on March 15th, the Predators beat the Pens 4-1. I’d slightly lean the Penguins win this one today at home but think they are ridiculously overpriced and not worth betting here. With both backups likely starting and both these teams on the second half of a back to back, I like the over a lot and I’ll take over 6 for 1.5 units.
Lightning vs. Sabres (5:00)
Despite already getting eliminated from the playoffs this year, for the eleventh year in a row (pain), my Sabres are showing good signs for the future and playing their best hockey of the season. They have an 8-4-3 record in their last 15 games and they’re coming off a 4-3 loss in Florida on Friday where they blew a 3-1 first period lead, giving up the game winner with just 38 seconds left in regulation. On the season, they’re 26-36-11. They’ve averaged just 2.74 goals per game on the year, ninth fewest in the NHL but they’ve scored an average of 3.6 goals per game in their last ten games. They haven’t improved much on the back end though and are allowing an average of 3.51 goals per game on the season, sixth most in the NHL. Tampa lost 2-1 in overtime in a grind of a game against the Bruins on Friday night, their fourth loss in a row and they haven’t played great lately with just six wins in their last 16 games. The defending back to back Cup champs are still likely in the playoffs though with a 43-20-8 record, currently in the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, a point behind the Bruins for third place in the Atlantic. Statistically they’ve been just as good this year as they have the last two seasons, scoring a ninth most in the NHL average of 3.27 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.8 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. These teams split their two previous matchups in Buffalo with the Sabres winning 5-1 on October 25th and the Bolts answering back with a 6-1 blowout on January 11th. The Lightning should win this game at home today pretty easily, but with the way they’ve played as of late, they’re in no way worth the -345 moneyline. I keep cashing puck lines on my Sabres since even when they lose they keep it close now and although I think the Lightning win, the Sabres should be able to stay in the game. I’ll go with a unit on Sabres +2.5 and half a unit each on the Sabres ML and the over with an extra .2 unit sprinkle on the Sabres in regulation.
Wild vs. Kings (5:00)
The Wild are coming off back to back losses in St. Louis (4-3 in overtime) on Friday and in Nashville (6-2) on Tuesday, but they’ve played great hockey lately with a 9-1-2 record in their last twelve games to improve to 43-21-6 on the season. They’re in third place in the Central Division, just two points back from the Blues for home ice in what will likely be the first round playoff matchup between those two teams. Minnesota’s been very good offensively, averaging 3.6 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL. Defensively on the season, they haven’t been so hot defensively, allowing an average of 3.07 goals per game. That has gotten way better in their winning stretch recently, a great sign going into the playoffs. In their last twelve games, they’ve allowed an average of only 2.17 goals per game in that span and if you throw out those last two losses, its only 1.6 goals per game in the ten prior to those. The Kings are coming off back to back losses as well, losing 3-2 at home to both Alberta teams on Thursday and Monday. They’ve struggled quite a bit lately, winning just two of their last six games with only six wins in their last 15. They’re currently still in third place in the weak Pacific Division with a 38-25-10 record but its a very tight playoff race in the West, with them tied with Nashville with 86 points and just two points ahead of both Vegas and Dallas. So every point matters. LA’s had issues scoring at times over the course of the season, averaging just 2.78 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL. They have been good defensively though, allowing an average of just 2.75 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL. Both games these teams played earlier this season in LA were low scoring grinds, with the Wild winning 3-2 on October 16th and the Kings winning 2-1 on December 11th. I like the Wild to win this one at home and think they’re the better team here. I’ll go with a unit on the Wild ML and expecting this game to be low scoring once again, I’ll take the under for a unit as well.
Hurricanes vs. Ducks (6:00)
The Hurricanes already clinched their spot in the playoffs this season and they’re currently tied with the Rangers in points for first place in the Metropolitan Division. They haven’t played great lately, coming of a 2-1 loss to the Islanders on Friday and they only have five wins in their last 14 games…not a great way to head into the closing stretch of the season. The Canes have allowed the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.38 goals per game and Freddy Andersen’s been one of the best goalies in the NHL this year with a 2.07 GAA and .926 save percentage. They’ve averaged 3.29 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL. The Ducks are coming off a nice 5-3 win in Philly yesterday but they’ve played horribly lately with just two wins (against the Coyotes and Flyers) in their last 15 games and they’re now 29-32-12 on the season. They’ve scored an average of only 2.77 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL and are allowing an average of 3.18 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season in Anaheim on November 18th, the Hurricanes won 2-1. They should easily win again tonight especially with the Ducks on the second half of a back to back. The price on this game at -400 is so expensive and not worth betting, especially with the way they’ve played lately but I feel like I need some action in this one. I’d expect this to be a low scoring game and I’ll go with a unit parlay on the Canes ML with the under 6. In addition, I’ll lay the juice for half a unit on the Canes in regulation and will take the under 6 for half a unit.
Blackhawks vs. Stars (7:00)
The Stars gave up two goals just ten seconds apart in the last 1:11 of the third period of their game yesterday to lose 3-1 to the Devils at home yesterday for their second loss in a row after losing 4-3 at home to the Leafs in overtime on Thursday. They’re 40-27-4 on the season and they are currently in the second Wild Card spot in the berry tight Western Conference playoff race, tied in points with Vegas with two games in hand and two points back from Nashville (who are playing earlier today). Dallas only has one win in their last four games but they’re playing pretty well lately with a 7-3-1 record in their last eleven games. They play boring hockey and if they get in they’ll likely get bounced in the first round by the Avs. The Stars have averaged 2.87 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.97 goals per game. The Blackhawks are horrible and come into today’s game on a six game losing streak after getting shut out 2-0 at home by the Kraken on Thursday with a 24-36-11 record. They’ve scored an average of only 2.59 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL and have allowed an average of 3.48 goals per game with their defensive numbers dropping by the day. Kevin Lankinen’s starting in goal tonight for Chicago and has sucked this year with a 3.55 GAA and .890 save percentage. The Stars are 2-0 against the Blackhawks this season with a 4-3 overtime win on December 18th and a 1-0 shootout win in a double shutout on February 18th. The Stars should bounce back from yesterdays loss with a win on the road tonight. I’ll go with a unit on the Dallas ML and a .2 unit shot at this game to go to overtime again. I’d lean the under and Hawks +1.5 as well, but not enough to bet on them.
Senators vs. Jets (7:30)
The Senators blow and last night got blown out 5-1 by the Rangers (double winner for me) for their second loss in a row after going on a surprising three game win streak. They’re 26-39-6 this season and have just seven wins in their last 21 games. They have only scored an average of 2.66 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and have allowed an average of 3.24 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. Tonight they will be starting rookie Mads Sogaard for the second time in his young career after his 5-2 win in Detroit on April 1st where he made 27 saves and posted a .931 save percentage. The Jets are 33-28-11 and they haven’t played great either lately, on a four game losing streak after they went on a solid stretch of winning nine of eleven games. They’ve scored an average of 3.01 goals per game and allowed an average of 3.07 per game. Two weeks ago when these teams played in Winnipeg on March 24th, the Sens won 5-2. I’d expect the Jets to answer back with a win tonight and I’ll go with the Jets in regulation for a unit. I don’t mind the ML, but would rather save some juice if they lose. I’d lean the under, but with both teams trending over I have no interest in betting it.
1u Bruins ML (-121)
.5u Bruins/Capitals over 5.5 (-134)
1.5u Predators/Penguins over 6 (-136)
1u Sabres +2.5 (-146)
.5u Sabres ML (+295)
.2u Sabres in regulation (+475)
.5u Sabres/Lightning over 6.5 (-105)
1u Wild ML (-182)
1u Wild/Kings under 6 (-122)
1u Parlay: Hurricanes ML & Hurricanes/Ducks under 6 (+128)
.5u Hurricanes in regulation (-240)
.5u Hurricanes/Ducks under 6 (-125)
1u Stars ML (-159)
.2u Stars/Blackhawks to go to OT (+350)
1u Jets in regulation (-108)
Record: 701-507-28 (+21.22 units)