Wells Fargo Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm – Potomac, MD

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7139 yards, 6 Par 4s between 450-500 yds (and two more that are 440 yds), in 2017 this was the hardest non-major course on tour and had the third most double bogies or worse of the season but played a bit easier in softer conditions in 2018, the two Par 5s are two of only six holes on the course that played under par in 2017 and 2018, one of the Par 5s is reachable in 2 by most and the other one is barely reachable by even the longest hitters, lower driving accuracy here (~58%) than tour average (~62%), longer average driving distance (284 yds) than tour average (282 yds), lower GIR percentage (~63%) than tour average (66%), narrow tree lined fairways mostly around 30-35 yds in width with a few wider outliers, fairways get way more narrow around 300 yds (less than 23 yds wide average) so strategically placed less than driver might be more used off the tee, fairway bunkers and some water in play off the tee, first cut of rough isn’t too penal but second cut is pretty difficult, lots of tough trees to get out of if golfers miss the fairway and rough, smaller than average bent grass greens that are narrow in width but longer front to back with a decent amount of slope and undulation, green side bunkers in play with surrounded by fescue

Tournament Notes

  • For this year only, this event will be hosted at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Potomac, MD rather than Quail Hallow since Quail Hallow will be hosting the President’s Cup this September
  • This course formerly hosted the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018

Key Stats

Fairways Gained, Approach, SG: T2G

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yds (23.9%), 200+ yds (22.8%), 150-175 yds (20.9%)

Field

155 golfers – Weaker field with a few stars (Rory) but much improved from Mexico last week

Defending Champion (Quail Hallow): Rory McIlroy

One and Done: Corey Connors

One and Done Considerations: Rory, Laird, Connors

Players

Rory McIlroy: 11500: +1150 – Easily the best player in the field, defending champion for this event (at Quail Hallow), backdoor a second place finish at the Masters, MC,33,13,10 his four events before that, 3rd in SG: T2G, 80th in fairways gained, 40th in approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 72nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 60th in proximity 175-200 yds, 6th in proximity 200+ yds, 17th in SG: ARG, 37th in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 4th in bogie avoidance, don’t think this is worth betting at +850 but with the additional +300 boost on DraftKings Sportsbook it’s worth the +1150 price

Corey Conners: 10100: +1800 – 41st place finish here in 2018, 12,6,23,26,11 finishes in his last five events, 5th in SG: T2G, 46th in fairways gained, 19th in approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 109th in proximity 150-175 yds, 42nd in proximity 175-200 yds, 8th in proximity 200+ yds, 85th in SG: ARG, 73rd in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 12th in bogie avoidance

Russell Henley: 9300: +2800 – MC’d at Heritage for the first time in 15 events, 30,13,13,33,33,14,2 his prior events this season, 46th place finish here in 2017, 2nd in SG: T2G, 24th in fairways gained, 1st in approach, 66th in SG: OTT, 17th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 8th in proximity 150-175 yds, 79th in proximity 175-200 yds, 81st in proximity 200+ yds, 7th in SG: ARG, 56th in putting, 7th in opportunities gained, 23rd in bogie avoidance

Matthew NeSmith: 7600: +6600 – 12,MC,3,MC,25 his last five events, 18th in SG: T2G, 20th in fairways gained, 14th in approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 44th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 29th in proximity 150-175 yds, 9th in proximity 175-200 yds, 57th in proximity 200+ yds, 66th in SG: ARG, 80th in putting, 34th in opportunities gained, 16th in bogie avoidance

Martin Laird: 7100: +8000 – Party Marty is first in my model this week, MC here in 2018 and 3rd place finish here in 2017, 29,MC,MC,52,39,14 finishes his last six events, 9th in SG: T2G, 3rd in fairways gained, 10th in approach, 31st in SG: OTT, 27th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 12th in proximity 150-175 yds, 12th in proximity 175-200 yds, 22nd in proximity 200+ yds, 41st in SG: ARG, 151st in putting, 39th in opportunities gained, 21st in bogie avoidance

Ryan Armour: 6800: +12500 – 2nd place finish here in 2018, not great this year with MC,15,MC,MC,28,20 finishes this season but fits the model nicely, 20th in SG: T2G, 1st in fairways gained, 25th in approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 12th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 53rd in proximity 150-175 yds, 74th in proximity 175-200 yds, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 121st in SG: ARG, 78th in putting, 74th in opportunities gained, 3rd in bogie avoidance

Model

SG: T2G (10%)

Fairways Gained (10%)

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (10%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (5%)

Proximity 175-200 yds (10%)

Proximity 200+ yds (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.54u Rory McIlroy (+1150)

.34u Corey Conners (+1800)

.22u Russell Henley (+2800)

.1u Matthew NeSmith (+6600)

.1u Martin Laird (+8000)

.06u Ryan Armour (+12500)

T6s

.34u Corey Conners (+360)

.22u Russell Henley (+560)

.1u Matthew NeSmith (+1320)

.1u Martin Laird (+1600)

.06u Ryan Armour (+2500)


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