AT&T Byron Nelson – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

TPC Craig Ranch – Dallas, TX

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7468 yards, 6 of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, 3 of the Par 3s are over 216 yards, all four Par 5s are driveable as well as the 330 yard Par 4 14th, Zoysia grass (most prevalent in Asia and Australia) fairways, trees and bunkers in play off the tee and water is in play on 13 holes with a creek running through a majority of the course, higher than tour average driving accuracy (~67% vs. ~62%) and longer driving distance than tour average (288 yds vs. 283 yds), higher than tour average GIR % (~71% vs. ~66%), above average sized bentgrass greens with bunkers in play, easy birdiefest course that’s easy to score on

Tournament Notes

  • Last year was the first season this event was held here at TPC Craig Ranch, used to be held at Trinity Forest Golf Club and TPC Four Seasons prior to that
  • This course previously hosted the Nationwide Tour Championship (now Korn Ferry Tour) in 2012 (James Hahn and Adam Hadwin came 2nd and 3rd that week) and 2008 (Leishman came T7)

Key Stats

Approach, Proximity 200+ yds, Birdie+ Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (34.5%)

Field

157 golfers – pretty good field strength the week before the PGA Championship

Defending Champion: KH Lee (-25)

Runner Up Last Year: Sam Burns (-22)

One and Done: Sam Burns

One and Done Considerations: Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler

Players

Justin Thomas: 10600: +1300 – 35,8,3,33,6,8 finishes his last six events, 1st in approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, 2nd in ballstriking, 56th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 19th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 5th in Par 5 scoring, 14th in proximity 200+ yds, 27th in SG: ARG, 60th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 2nd in DK points

Hideki Matsuyama: 9900: +2500 – 39th here last year, 14,20,39,8,30,1 his last six events, 8th in approach, 5th in SG: T2G, 6th in ballstriking, 24th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 55th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 15th in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in proximity 200+ yds, 22nd in SG: ARG, 104th in putting, 5th in opportunities gained, 8th in birdie+ gained, 3rd in DK points

Sam Burns: 9500: +1800 – finished 2nd here last year, MC at the Master,1,26,9 in his last four events, 7th in approach, 7th in SG: T2G, 11th in ballstriking, 3rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 14th in Par 4 scoring, 47th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 8th in Par 5 scoring, 30th in proximity 200+ yds, 23rd in SG: ARG, 19th in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 10th in birdie+ gained, 9th in DK points

Will Zalatoris: 9400: +2000 – T17 here last year, RECENT FORM, 2nd in approach, 3rd in SG: T2G, 3rd in ballstriking, 18th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 85th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 46th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 61st in SG: ARG, 93rd in putting, 14th in opportunities gained, 9th in birdie+ gained, 11th in DK points

Adam Hadwin: 8000: +4500 – 26,4,7,9,MC,26,16 his last 7 events, 6th in approach, 8th in SG: T2G, 14th in ballstriking, 9th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 29th in Par 4 scoring, 61st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 39th in Par 5 scoring, 10th in proximity 200+ yds, 12th in SG: ARG, 36th in putting, 14th in opportunities gained, 20th in birdie+ gained, 30th in DK points

Luke List: 7300: +10000 – T61 here last year, 31,MC,MC,53,MC,MC,43,1,22 in events this year so it’s hit or miss on if he’s gonna be decent or miss the cut, 5th in approach, 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in ballstriking, 8th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 28th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 37th in Par 5 scoring, 19th in proximity 200+ yds, 14th in SG: ARG, 153rd in putting, 2nd in opportunities gained, 19th in birdie+ gained, 24th in DK points

Tom Hoge: 7300: +8000 – MC here last year, MC,39,33,32,MC,14,1,MC,2 in events this year, 4th in approach, 4th in SG: T2G, 4th in ballstriking, 7th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 110th in Par 5 scoring, 33rd in proximity 200+ yds, 41st in SG: ARG, 96th in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 23rd in birdie+ gained, 14th in DK points

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: T2G (5%)

Ballstriking (10%)

Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds (5%)

Par 4 scoring (5%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (10%)

Par 5 scoring (5%)

Proximity 200+ yds (15%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

DK Points (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.5u Justin Thomas (+1300)

.34u Sam Burns (+1800)

.3u Will Zalatoris (+2000)

.24u Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)

.14u Adam Hadwin (+4500)

.08u Tom Hoge (+8000)

.06u Luke List (+10000)

T6s

.34u Sam Burns (+360)

.3u Will Zalatoris (+400)

.24u Hideki Matsuyama (+500)

.14u Adam Hadwin (+900)

.08u Tom Hoge (+1600)

.06u Luke List (+2000)


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