Last night I ended up going 2-2 and losing 1.96 units with the Avalanche blowing an early 3-0 lead to the Blues and then blowing a 4-3 lead with 58 seconds left in regulation with the chance to close out the series and losing in overtime. Crushing way to lose (which I’ll go in depth on tomorrow’s blog). Tonight we have two Game 5s and the Oilers have the chance to close out the Flames.
Game 5: Hurricanes vs. Rangers (7:00)
This series is starting to shape up similarly to the Canes/Bruins series in the first round with the home team winning all four of the first games as its knotted up at 2-2 going back to Carolina for Game 5 tonight. I think with this series shifting back to Carolina, the Hurricanes get the win at home. I have a 2.5 unit series bet on Carolina to win this series in six games that needs them to win tonight’s game as well as Game 6 in NY to cash. I’ll let that ride tonight and add to it with a unit on the Canes ML. This series has trended way under and I don’t see any reason that changes tonight. I’ll load up with 4.5 units on the under 5.5 in tonight’s game.
Game 5: Flames vs. Oilers (9:30)
Going into the Battle of Alberta, I thought this would be a fun and competitive series, which it has been but where I was wrong was that I thought the Flames were a complete step above the Oilers and that Calgary would knock off the Oilers in six or seven games. Edmonton has easily been the better team in this series and now the Flames are on the brink of elimination, coming back home for Game 5 tonight down 3-1 in this series. After the Oilers got off to a 3-0 lead early in Game 4, they blew that lead with a solid comeback from the Flames to tie the game at 3-3 and cash my over before Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored with 3:27 remaining in regulation to take the lead back for Edmonton with Evander Kane capping the game off with an empty netter to win 5-3. I like the Flames to win tonight on home ice to extend this series, which would cash my over 5.5 games prop on this series. I also have my series bet for the Flames to win this series, which I’ll partially hedge tonight with 3 units on the Oilers TT over 2.5. So hopefully I get three goals from the Oilers in a losing effort on the road tonight. If I didn’t have those series bets, I would have probably scaled back on the Oilers TT and added Flames ML for 1.5 units. This series has trended way over with both teams scoring seemingly at will. I’ll go back to the over tonight for 2 units.
1u Hurricanes ML (-155)
4.5u Hurricanes/Rangers under 5.5 (-134)
3u Oilers TT over 2.5 (-177)
2u Flames/Oilers over 6.5 (-122)
Open Series Bets
2.5u Hurricanes in six games or less (+100)
2u Flames (-195)
1u Flames/Oilers over 5.5 games (-167)
2u Hurricanes: Stanley Cup Champions (+700)
.5u Blues: Stanley Cup Champions (+2200)
Record: 893-681-38 (+12.55 units)
Regular Season: 809-605-32 (+19.61 units)
Playoffs: 84-76-6 (-7.06 units)