Charles Schwab Challenge – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Colonial Country Club – Fort Worth, TX

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7209 yds, 7 Par 4s range from 400-450 yds, 3 of the Par 3s range from 175-200 yds, 84 bunkers, 4 water hazards, Bermuda fairways and rough, tight tree lined fairways with bunkers in play on pretty much every tee shot, rough isn’t too high but wirey so it’s tough to hit out of, harder than average fairways to hit (~57% vs. tour average ~62%), most golfers will go less than driver on a lot of holes (average driving distance 278 yds vs. tour average 283), plotters course where accuracy and shot placement matters more than distance, a lot of doglegs with 7 of the 11 favoring a left to right ball flight, slightly below average GIR % (~64% vs. tour average ~66%), tiny average speed bentgrass greens with a bit of undulation, lot of bunkers around the green especially in front of them, weather plays a big factor here with the winning score fluctuating between -21 and -9 in the last 12 years

Tournament Notes

  • Formerly called the Fort Worth Invitational and the Dean & DeLuca Invitational and several other names before those
  • Experience/course history matter here, the winners of this event since 2001 have averaged 7 appearances here prior to their win
  • Only 8 golfers in 70 years have gotten their maiden victory here
  • Since Sergio won in 2001 at age 22, only Jordan Spieth in 2016 and Daniel Berger last year were the only golfers under age 30 to win here 
  • Besides when Justin Rose won in 2018 (on his first time here) and Daniel Berger in 2020 (T53 the year previous), every winner since 2014 has finished T15 or better the year previous here
  • SG: Approach is more than twice as impactful than OTT and ATG for Top 10/Top 5 finishes, and 3x more impactful on the winner
  • Any skill set could win here and a lot of plotters have won here before but the superstars that normally don’t play here could just bomb and gauge the course and tear it up

Key Stats

Approach, Ballstriking, Par 4 Scoring

Main proximity distance ranges on approach: 150-175 yds (24.7%), 125-150 yds (20.6%)

Corollary Courses

  • Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
  • Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship)
  • Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship)
  • Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open)
  • Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)

Field

120 golfer invitational field

Defending Champion: Jason Kokrak (-14)

Runner Up Last Year: Jordan Spieth (-12)

One and Done: Jordan Spieth

One and Done Considerations: Hovland, Zalatoris, Spieth

Players

Jordan Spieth: 10400: +1500 – Best course history here in the field by a significant margin, runner up here 3 times including last year, win here in 2016, worst finish here in his career was 32nd and besides that only had one finish 14th outside of the T10 in his nine years here, 34,2,1,MC,35 finishes in his last five events, 8th in approach, 5th in ballstriking, 15th in SG: OTT, 31st in good drives, 19th in Par 4 scoring, 12th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 111th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 16th in proximity 125-150 yds, 33rd in proximity 150-175 yds, 30th in SG: ARG, 107th in putting, 5th in opportunities gained, 37th in birdie+ gained, 12 in bogey avoidance, I used boosts to bump up the odds on both the outright and the T5 but still like the outright at +1200, wouldn’t play the T5 at +300

Viktor Hovland: 10000: +2000 – 23rd here in his debut in 2020, 41,27,33,9.2.4 finishes in his last six events, 1st in approach, 2nd in ballstriking, 4th in SG: OTT, 7th in good drives, 14th in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 31st in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 1st in proximity 125-150 yds, 14th in proximity 150-175 yds, 119th in SG: ARG, 44th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 4th in birdie+ gained, 14th in bogey avoidance

Daniel Berger: 9000: +3500 – MC,21,50,13,4,MC,20 his last 7 events, 20,1,53, here the last three years, 4th in approach, 8th in ballstriking, 31st in SG: OTT, 12th in good drives, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 44th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 15th in proximity 125-150 yds, 33rd in proximity 150-175 yds, 17th in SG: ARG, 98th in putting, 30th in opportunities gained, 42nd in birdie+ gained, 10th in bogey avoidance

Sebastian Munoz: 7700: +4500 – 55,3,29,33,26,21,23 finishes in his last seven events, T3 here last year, MC here in 2020, 10th in approach, 7th in ballstriking, 10th in SG: OTT, 10th in good drives, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 54th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 47th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 30th in proximity 125-150 yds, 29th in proximity 150-175 yds, 18th in SG: ARG, 81st in putting, 10th in opportunities gained, 29th in birdie+ gained, 66th in bogey avoidance

Tom Hoge: 7600: +6000 – MC,MC,40,42,17 his last 5 times here, 9,17,MC,39,33,32,MC,14,1,MC,2 finishes this season, 6th in approach, 9th in ballstriking, 33rd in SG: OTT, 15th in good drives, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 23rd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 12th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 68th in proximity 125-150 yds, 25th in proximity 150-175 yds, 31st in SG: ARG, 61st in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 17th in birdie+ gained, 4th in bogey avoidance, I keep going back to him since he keeps popping up high on my models

Luke Donald: 6000: +35000 – Shockingly has never played this course, MC,25,MC,56,56,58,16 his last six events, 5th in approach, 76th in ballstriking, 119th in SG: OTT, 28th in good drives, 40th in Par 4 scoring, 30th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 4th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 18th in proximity 125-150 yds, 41st in proximity 150-175 yds, 20th in SG: ARG, 75th in putting, 25th in opportunities gained, 63rd in birdie+ gained, 34th in bogey avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

Ballstriking (5%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Good Drives (5%)

Par 4 scoring (5%)

Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds (10%)

Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds (5%)

Proximity 125-150 yds (5%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogey Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • On DK Showdown slates, you’re better off stacking guys that start on the back nine for the wrap around of Holes 17,18,1,2 for 3+ birdie streak

Bets

Outrights

.4u Jordan Spieth (+1500) boosted

.3u Viktor Hovland (+2000)

.18u Daniel Berger (+3500)

.14u Sebastian Munoz (+4500)

.1u Tom Hoge (+6000)

.02u Luke Donald (+35000)

T5s

.4u Jordan Spieth (+600) boosted

T6s

.3u Viktor Hovland (+400)

.18u Daniel Berger (+700)

.14u Sebastian Munoz (+900)

.1u Tom Hoge (+1200)

.02u Luke Donald (+7000)


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