Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7550 yds, Jack Nicklaus designed, the Par 5s are reachable in 2, 6 of the 7 most difficult holes are Par 4s between 450-500 yards, bent grass fairways and greens, tree lined easy to hit fairways (~69%) with deep fairway bunkers that are penal (only about 40% of golfers that hit fairway bunkers make par), the fairways get more narrow around the 300 yard mark, 73 bunkers, 13 water hazards that are in play on 11 holes, water is placed in tricky spots with creeks running through the course with some on entire holes, less than driver course that favors placement for approach shots and this course ranks in bottom 10 courses on tour in driving distance but high driving accuracy vs. tour average (~69% vs. 62%), difficult to hit out of thick 3 inch rough, harder than average greens to hit (~62% vs. tour average 66%), scrambling is very difficult at this course (~53% vs. tour average 58%). extremely fast small greens with heavy undulation, many of the greens slope back to front, water and greenside bunkers in play (this course has the longest proximity on tour from shots out of green side bunkers), rain softening the course can make it play much easier, in 2016 at -1 was the only year since 2003 that the cut line was under par

Lots of renovation to the course before last season with all of the grass on the fairways and greens redone, adjusted bunkers, changed contours to the greens, added a bunch of new trees and new tee boxes that when maxed out can lengthen the course around 100 yards. The only significant changes to these is the greens and the resodding of the greens will make them very firm for the first few years. The new contours of the greens makes course history slightly less of a factor since reading the greens will be new for everyone.

Tournament Notes

• Last season, Jon Rahm was forced to withdraw with a six stroke lead after Saturday’s round with a bullshit positive COVID test even though he was completely healthy. He would have easily won this tournament by a touchdown if that wasn’t the case and went on to win the US Open two weeks later
• Winner here has ranked in the top 10 for the season in SG: Approach for the last 14 years
• Six of the top 10 finisher finished Top 10 in SG: Approach for the season last year
• Approach here is 3.5x more important here than SG: OTT and SG: ARG is actually more significant than SG:OTT here
• The 2020 Workday Championship was also held here the week prior to the Memorial with a slightly easier setup, which Morikawa won

Key Stats

Approach, GIR, Par 4 scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds (23.1%), 175-200 yds. (22.1%)

Note: 175-200 yards range might be more important with the lengthening of the course and the more difficult holes on the course being longer Par 4s that leave a longer approach shot

Field

120 golfer invitational field – best field strength of the year for a non-major

Defending Champion: Patrick Cantlay (-13 in playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Collin Morikawa (-13)

One and Done: Xander Schauffele

One and Done Considerations: Lowry, Smith, Homa, Xander

Players

Xander Schauffele: 10200: +1700 – 11,13,14,MC here the last four years and 14th at Workday here in 2020, 13,5,MC,12,MC,13,3 his last seven events, 11th in approach, 12th in ballstriking, 16th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 116th in proximity 150-175 yds, 16th in proximity 175-200 yds, 5th in sand saves, 27th in SG: ARG, 27th in putting, 14th in GIRs gained, 13th in opportunities gained, 15th in birdie+ gained, 8th in bogie avoidance

Cam Smith: 9900: +2000 – Pretty lousy history here with MC,68,MC,MC,65,MC finishes here, 13,MC,3,1,33 finishes his last five events, 3rd in approach, 25th in ballstriking, 26th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 2nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 17th in proximity 175-200 yds, 69th in sand saves, 30th in SG: ARG, 8th in putting, 15th in GIRs gained, 7th in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 9th in bogie avoidance

Shane Lowry: 9000: +2200 – 6,MC,52,15 finishes his last four times here and 39th at the Workday here in 2020, 23,3,3,12,13,2 his six last events, 1st in approach, 14th in ballstriking, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 13th in proximity 150-175 yds, 8th in proximity 175-200 yds, 7th in sand saves, 55th in SG: ARG, 20th in putting, 11th in GIRs gained, 21st in opportunities gained, 40th in birdie+ gained, 2nd in bogie avoidance

Max Homa: 8700: +3300 – 6,MC,37 finishes here the last three years and MC at Workday here in 2020, 23,13,1,48,13,16,10,14 finishes his last eight events, 10th in approach, 8th in ballstriking, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 19th in proximity 150-175 yds, 10th in proximity 175-200 yds, 39th in sand saves, 86th in SG: ARG, 10th in putting, 22nd in GIRs gained, 22nd in opportunities gained, 12th in birdie+ gained, 18th in bogie avoidance

Mito Pereira: 8000: +4500 – First time here, 7,3 (collapse on 18 at the PGA on Sunday),17,26,13,27,MC,30,15 his last nine events, 8th in approach, 6th in ballstriking, 20th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 38th in proximity 150-175 yds, 86th in proximity 175-200 yds, 25th in sand saves, 46th in SG: ARG, 68th in putting, 2nd in GIRs gained, 4th in opportunities gained, 44th in birdie+ gained, 7th in bogie avoidance

CT Pan: 7200: +12500 – 57,44,40 finishes his three times here and 48th at Workday here in 2020, 52,15,29,42,41,48,MC,16,9 finishes his last nine events, 20th in approach, 37th in ballstriking, 10th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 20th in proximity 150-175 yds, 18th in proximity 175-200 yds, 32nd in sand saves, 52nd in SG: ARG, 53rd in putting, 25th in GIRs gained, 45th in opportunities gained, 42nd in birdie+ gained, 30th in bogie avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

Ballstriking (5%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (10%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (10%)

Proximity 175-200 yds (10%)

Sand Saves (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

GIRs Gained (10%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• I’ll be looking at SG: Approach leaders live after Round 1 and 2 for Live Betting opportunities with how important that stat is on this course.
• 6/6 percentage on DK should be higher this week than most since the field is smaller.

Bets

Outrights

.36u Xander Schauffele (+1700)

.3u Cameron Smith (+2000)

.28u Shane Lowry (+2200)

.2u Max Homa (+3300)

.14u Mito Pereira (+4500)

.06u CT Pan (+12500)

T5s

.28u Shane Lowry (+550)

T6s

.3u Cameron Smith (+400)

.2u Max Homa (+660)

.14u Mito Pereira (+900)

.06u CT Pan (+2500)

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