TPC River Highlands – Hartford, CT

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 6852 yards, second shortest course on tour, Pete Dye designed course, 8 par 4s are between 400-450yds, both par 5s are reachable, guys could club down and hit their spots where they want, lot of birdie opportunities here, doesn’t favor any particular ball flight, wide and easy fairways to hit here (~69% vs. ~62% tour average), trees in play if you miss the fairways, the fairways get narrower the farther from the tee you go, first cut of rough isn’t very penal but gets tougher with bigger misses, top ten hardest courses on tour to scramble from the rough, soft and receptive predominately POA greens with a mix of bentgrass, greens are smaller but easier than average to hit (~68% vs. ~65% tour average), fast greens have a bit of slope and not much undulation, lot of the greens are elevated, pins could be located in tough spots, greens are guarded by collection areas, water, thick rough and bunkers, water in play in about 1/3 of holes but isn’t a big factor

Tournament Notes

• 4 of the last 12 winners got their first career win here
• 4 of the last 9 winners were coming into the week off a missed cut in their previous event
• 6 of the last 8 winners have posted at least a T30 here before winning
• Since 2001, only 2 golfers (Phil in 2001, Spieth in 2017) won on their first time here
• SG: OTT is much more important here than ATG, but both are outweighed by approach, as usual

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.7%)

Corollary Courses

• Pete Dye tracks. Slightly different than other Pete Dye tracks but still has a lot of similar elements 
• Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – lot of crossover success
• Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship) – lot of crossover success

Field

149 golfers – really great field strength with Hartford so close to Boston

Defending Champion: Harris English (-13 in playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Kramer Hickok (-13)

One and Done: Joaquin Niemann

One and Done Considerations: Spieth, Rory, Scheffler, Niemann

Players

Jordan Spieth: 9900: +2200 – Won here before when he holed out in the first playoff hole from the bunker for an electric finish against Daniel Berger in 2017, 54,MC,42,1 finishes his four times here (2020-2017), 37,18,7,34,2,1 finishes his last six events and has gained on T2G, OTT and ARG in all of those events and only lost on Approach at the Memorial in that span where he still finished 18th, 3rd in approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 10th in proximity 150-175 yards, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 14th in Par 5 scoring, 6th in SG: ARG, 118th in putting, 8th in opportunities gained, 12th in birdie+ gained

Joaquin Niemann: 9600: +2500 – 36,63,5 finishes here the last three years, 47,3,23,25,12,35,22,MC,1,6 finishes this season, 18th in approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 32nd in proximity 150-175 yards, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 9th in Par 5 scoring, 5th in SG: ARG, 61st in putting, 25th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdie+ gained

Tony Finau: 9500: +3300 – MC,MC,MC,17,25,25 finishes here his six times here (skipped 2018), MC,2,4,30,41,2,35,29 finishes in his last eight events, 8th in approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 4th in proximity 150-175 yards, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 15th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 17th in Par 5 scoring, 53rd in SG: ARG, 46th in putting, 12th in opportunities gained, 31st in birdie+ gained, barely ever actually wins even though he maps out perfectly and has the talent to on most events but this is a spot where I feel the price is worth taking a shot on betting

Mito Pereira: 8700: +4500 – First time playing here, missed the cut on the number last week at the US Open, MC,13,7,3,17,26,13,27,MC,30,15 his last eleven events, 4th in approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 33rd in proximity 150-175 yards, 16th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 13th in Par 5 scoring, 34th in SG: ARG, 111th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 19th in birdie+ gained

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.28u Jordan Spieth (+2200)

.24u Joaquin Niemann (+2500)

.2u Tony Finau (+3300)

.14u Mito Pereira (+4500)

T6s

.28u Jordan Spieth (+440)

.24u Joaquin Niemann (+500)

.2u Tony Finau (+660)

.14u Mito Pereira (+900)

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