Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7127 yds, Donald Ross design, one of the easiest courses on tour, birdiefest, Bermuda grass throughout, both Par 5s are easily reachable by the entire field (over 70 eagles on the 2 Par 5s in 2019), 8 of the 12 Par 4s are in 400-450 yards range, 2 Par 4s play over 500 yards, average sized tree lined fairways, just a few fairway bunkers, light rough but there could be weird lies out of the Bermuda grass making distance control tough, lot of less than driver off the tee, placement off the tee is more important than length similar to a Pete Dye design, GIR % is way higher than tour average (~72% vs. 65%), GIR from the fairway is over 80% and GIR from the rough is around 50% so that’s a huge gap, small to average sized undulated and sloped multi-tiered greens (back to front), very fast green speeds, there are a lot of shallow bunkers and water guarding the greens on a few holes, edges of the greens are crowned with large collection areas, one of the toughest putting courses on tour which is a staple of Donald Ross designs, high three putt percentage (~67% vs. 55% tour average)

Tournament Notes

• Wyndham Championship has been played here since 2008, but the greens were changed to Bermuda from bentgrass in 2012
• Final event of the regular PGA Tour season before the FedEx Cup playoffs (Top 125 make the Northern Trust at Liberty National next week), so it makes this event matter a bit more but that doesn’t seem to shake out to any actual results for the players on the bubble. It really doesn’t matter.
• Any skill set can win here
• 7 of the last 10 winners have ranked T15 for the week in driving accuracy

Key Stats

Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s 400-450 yds

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (27.4%)

Corollary Courses

• Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
• Waialae Country Club (Sony Open)

Crossover success at both courses and similar setups with short Par 70s and Bermuda grass

Field

156 golfers – Weak field strength

Defending Champion: Kevin Kisner (-15 in playoff)

Runner Ups Last Year: Kevin Na, Branden Grace, Si Woo Kim, Adam Scott, Roger Sloan (-15)

One and Done: Russell Henley (doesn’t matter at this point, zero chance for me to cash)

One and Done Considerations: Zalatoris, Lowry, Webb, Henley

Players

Will Zalatoris: 10900: +1600 – Has to break through and get his first win eventually, finished 29th here last year and MC in 2018, 20,28,MC,2,5,MC,2,MC,6 finishes in his last nine events, 2nd in approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 37th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 115th in fairways gained, 4th in proximity 150-175 yards, 1st in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 66th in SG: ARG, 127th in putting, 5th in 3 putt avoidance

Shane Lowry: 10600: +1600 – 23,MC,7,42 finishes in his four times here, 21,MC,10,32,23,3,3,12,13,2 in his last ten events, 3rd in approach, 23rd in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 51st in fairways gained, 28th in proximity 150-175 yards, 14th in opportunities gained, 14th in birdie+ gained, 48th in SG: ARG, 21st in putting, 55th in 3 putt avoidance

Russell Henley: 9800: +2000 – 7,9,31,MC,46 his five times here, 10,62,MC,60,41,MC,30,13,13,33,33,14,2 finishes this season, gained on each aspect of T2G last week in Detroit, 1st in approach, 78th in SG: OTT, 38th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 37th in fairways gained, 11th in proximity 150-175 yards, 3rd in opportunities gained, 17th in birdie+ gained, 4th in SG: ARG, 77th in putting, 71st in 3 putt avoidance, Bermuda is his best putting surface

Corey Conners: 9600: +2000 – MC,22,45 finishes his three times here, 28,61,MC,6,13,MC,21,12,6,35,26,11,MC,38,MC,MC,11 finishes this season, 9th in approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 37th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 18th in fairways gained, 131st in proximity 150-175 yards, 11th in opportunities gained, 15th in birdie+ gained, 69th in SG: ARG, 58th in putting, 69th in 3 putt avoidance

JT Poston: 8200: +3300 – winner here in 2019, MC,MC,1,MC,50 finishes here the last five years, 11,MC,1,2 finishes in his last four events, 25th in approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 62nd in fairways gained, 87th in proximity 150-175 yards, 44th in opportunities gained, 5th in birdie+ gained, 24th in SG: ARG, 6th in putting, 77th in 3 putt avoidance

Adam Svensson: 7500: +6600 – Finished 31st here in 2019, 24,MC,6,24,25,21 finishes in his last six events, gained strokes putting in 8 straight events before Rocket Mortgage last week, 12th in approach, 64th in SG: OTT, 35th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 37th in fairways gained, 32nd in proximity 150-175 yards, 18th in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 114th in SG: ARG, 29th in putting, 52nd in 3 putt avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (15%)

Fairways Gained (10%)

Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

3 Putt Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 roundsR

Bets

Outrights

.4u Will Zalatoris (+1600)

.4u Shane Lowry (+1600)

.3u Russell Henley (+2000)

.3u Corey Conners (+2000)

.2u JT Poston (+3300)

.1u Adam Svensson (+6600)

T6s

.3u Russell Henley (+400)

.3u Corey Conners (+400)

.2u JT Poston (+660)

.1u Adam Svensson (+1320)

---

Please follow me:

Instagram: @atownszone

Twitter: @atownszone

TikTok: @atownszone

If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!