Losing day for me yesterday, going 4-6 and losing 1.47 units. Not the worst considering the value I chased on some of those plays. Tonight we just have a small three game NHL slate. Let’s bounce back with some winners!
Panthers vs. Flyers (7:30)
The Flyers have gotten off to a surprisingly hot start to their year under new head coach John Tortorella. Torts has motivated these guys to a 3-0 start, coming off a surprising 3-2 win in Tampa Bay last night (double loser for me). Through their three game start, they’ve averaged 3.67 goals per game on an average of 26.7 shots per game and have only allowed two goals in each of their games despite giving up an average of 35 shots per game with great goaltending from Carter Hart, who has a .943 save percentage so far this season. He’s currently projected to get the start again tonight even though he started yesterday. Tonight they’re on their second half of a back to back in Florida to face off against the Panthers. Florida’s 2-1 on the year, coming off their first loss of the season on Monday night where they lost 5-3 in Boston. Last year’s President’s Trophy winners have been pretty solid so far this year offensively, averaging 3.33 goals per game on an average of 35.7 shots on goal. Defensively they have struggled a bit, allowing an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 31.3 shots per game. They now lost one of their best defenseman in Aaron Ekblad who got put on long term IR this morning, so their defense will be even more depleted. Florida swept the season series between these teams last year, which should come as a surprise to no one. Even with the Panthers depleted defense, this should be a great bounce back spot from them after their loss to the Bruins, especially against an overperforming but weak Flyers team on the second half of a back to back. The moneyline here is too expensive for me to bet on at the insane -360 line and even the regulation line is too pricy but I’ll take the Panthers -1.5 for half a unit.
Avalanche vs. Jets (8:00)
The defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche are 2-1 to start the season, coming off a big 6-3 win in Minnesota on Monday night. Through their three games, they’ve averaged 4.67 goals per game on an average of 32.7 shots on goal and have allowed an average of 3.33 goals on an average of 27.7 shots. Announced earlier today, the Avs will be without captain Gabriel Landeskog for about twelve weeks as he recovers from knee surgery. Tonight they’re back home after a two game road trip and will go up against a 1-1 Winnipeg Jets, who are coming off a 4-1 loss in Dallas on Monday (winner on my under there). Through their two games, they have both scored and allowed an average of 2.5 goals per game. They’ve generated an average of 29.5 shots per game and have given up an average of 35. Rick Bowness is a defensive minded coach though and they have a phenomenal goalie in net in Connor Hellebuyck, so those two factors should limit scoring even though they’re giving up a good amount of shots. Last season in the four games these teams played, the Avs went 3-1, easily hitting the over in Colorado’s very high scoring wins but going under in the Winnipeg win. On the Avs side of things I’d lean the over, while I’d lean the under on the Jets side, so I will stay off the total in this game. I like Colorado to win at home tonight. The moneyline is a bit too expensive at – but I will take the Avs in regulation for half a unit.
Kraken vs. Blues (10:00)
St. Louis has only played one game so far this season, a 5-2 victory at home against the Blue Jackets on Saturday where they matched Columbus with 25 shots a piece. I expect the Blues to be pretty good this season and the result of that game was pretty much just as I expected. Seattle’s 1-2-1 coming off back to back blowout losses at home to the Golden Knights (5-2) and Hurricanes (5-1). The Kraken have scored an average of 2.75 goals per game on an average of 31.5 shots on goal and have struggled defensively, allowing an average of 4 goals per game on an average of 29.5 shots allowed through their four matchups this season. The Blues swept the Kraken in the three games these Western Conference teams played last season, winning 2-1, 5-0 and 4-1. I’d expect St. Louis to overpower the Kraken and get a win tonight on the road. I’ll take the Blues ML for half a unit along with the over for half a unit.
Game Bets
.5u Panthers -1.5 (-134)
.5u Avalanche in regulation (-139)
.5u Blues ML (-130)
.5u Blues/Kraken over 6 (-110)
Record: 31-24-1 (-1.64 units)
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