This week on the PGA Tour we have a new course for the CJ Cup, Congaree Golf Club near Hilton Head, SC. We previously saw this course for one PGA event, the 2021 Palmetto Championship.

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7685 yards, plays very long with an advantage to length off the tee but the course plays super firm and fast so you’ll get a ton of rollout off the tee, Bermuda grass throughout, natural sand on the course with native waste areas (so players can ground their club in it without penalty), relatively flat with only 30 feet in elevation changes, wide fairways, driving accuracy was higher than tour average (~68% vs. 62%) and driving distance with that extra rollout was exceptionally higher than tour average (~302 yards vs. 283) which was the longest driving distance of any course that season, very large elevated greens with lots of slope and undulation with runoff areas and sandy native areas surrounding them, seems similar to Australian courses

Tournament Notes

• This course previously hosted the 2021 Palmetto Championship which replaced the Canadian Open that season due to COVID restrictions in Canada and that event was much more difficult
• At the Palmetto in 2021, SG: OTT was almost as important as approach, which is rare. Usually approach is much heavier weighted towards the finishing results with SG: OTT weighing almost double as important as it does on tour average
• No cut event

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Bogie Avoidance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (27.9%)

Field

78 golfers with a lot of high end players in the field, which is rare on the fall swing season including 17 of the Top 25 golfers in the world rankings

Defending Champion (The Summit Club): Rory McIlroy

Runner Up Last Year (The Summit Club): Collin Morikawa

2021 Palmetto Champion: Garrick Higo (-11)

2021 Palmetto Runner Ups: Chesson Hadley, Tyrrell Hatton, Doc Redman, Hudson Swafford, Bo Van Pelt, Jhonattan Vegas (-10)

Players

Rory McIlroy: 11100: +750 – I’m breaking my own rule here on value and betting Rory even though the odds here are pathetic but with a no cut event and how perfect he seems to map out for this place along with my smaller card I’ll go with it but what I will do is bet half of my typical (to win) bet and then I’ll try adding to it live, first time playing this course, T4,4,T2,1,T8 in his last five events in the US and Europe, 4th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 12th in Sand Saves, 23rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 22nd in SG: ARG, 39th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance, HEAR THE RORS!

Cameron Young: 8600: +2900 – First time playing this course, 53,19,23,31,2,2 finishes in his last six events, 38th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 2nd in Driving Distance, 42nd in Sand Saves, 13th in Proximity 200+ yards, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 29th in Par 5 Scoring, 4th in SG: ARG, 61st in Putting, 42nd in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained, 28th in Bogie Avoidance

Mito Pereira: 7600: +7000 – Blew up last week on Friday after a great start on Thursday and came back a bit on the weekend, has lost strokes OTT in his last four events, first time playing this course, 45,4,54,42 finishes in his last four events, 2nd in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 32nd in Driving Distance, 48th in Sand Saves, 9th in Proximity 200+ yards, 47th in Par 4 Scoring, 31st in Par 5 Scoring, 31st in SG: ARG, 57th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, 53rd in Bogie Avoidance

Cameron Davis: 7500: +7500 – First time playing this course, 29,37,MC,35,13,14,16,8 finishes in his last eight events, 19th in Approach, 23rd in SG: OTT, 8th in Driving Distance, 27th in Sand Saves, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 54th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 42nd in SG: ARG, 41st in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 17th in Bogie Avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (20%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Sand Saves (5%)

Proximity 200+ yards (10%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.7u Rory McIlroy (+750)

.36u Cameron Young (+2900)

.16u Mito Pereira (+7000)

.14u Cameron Davis (+7500)

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