On last night’s three game NHL slate I went 2-2 losing 0.36 units of juice, with a losing backdoor cover with the Flyers scoring with just 3 seconds left against Florida. Tonight we have a huge twelve game slate! Let’s stack up the wins!
Bruins vs. Ducks (7:00)
I knowingly walked directly into the trap on the Bruins on Tuesday night, taking their shocking underdog odds in Ottawa as they took their first loss of the season in a 7-5 loss to the Senators. I should’ve known to just stay off that game but I can’t really question the value I was chasing there. I’ve been impressed with Boston so far through their four game start. Their offense has been fantastic so far, averaging 5.25 goals per game on an average of 35.3 shots on goal. Defensively after allowing the Sens to hang seven goals on them on Tuesday, the Bruins have allowed an average of 3.75 goals per game on an average of 32.8 shots on goal. The Ducks haven’t had a great start to their year, starting the season 1-3 and coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak on the road. Through their four games, they’ve averaged 3 goals per game on an average of only 23 shots on goal but have given up an average of 5.25 goals per game while allowing an average of 42.5 shots on goal. Last season in their two games played, the Ducks actually beat the Bruins in both of those games, both hitting the over. That being said, I think this is a great bounce back spot for the Bruins at home and will take the B’s in regulation for a unit (I think the moneyline is too expensive). I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Blue Jackets vs. Predators (7:00)
After starting the season 2-0 and looking great against the Sharks in Prague, the Preds seem to have a Europe hangover, losing all three of their games since returning to the US to now sit at 2-2-1. They’re coming off a 4-3 shootout loss at home to the Kings on Tuesday night after back to back losses in a home and home with the Stars. Through their five games the Preds have struggled a bit to put the puck in the back of the net, averaging 2.4 goals per game on an average of 28.8 shots on goal. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game while giving up an average of 30 shots on goal. The Blue Jackets come into tonight’s game off their first win of the season on Tuesday night, beating the Canucks 4-3 in overtime. They haven’t been great on either end of the ice. They’re averaging just 2.25 goals per game on an average of 29.5 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 4.25 goals per game on an average of 35.5 shots on goal. These two teams split their games last season with a 6-0 shutout win for the Predators and a 4-3 Blue Jackets win. I think this is a get right spot for the Preds and will take them for half a unit.
Canadiens vs. Coyotes (7:00)
What a horrible matchup this game is between two teams that could be two lottery teams. The Coyotes are coming off a shocking (for some) 4-2 win in Toronto on Monday night against the Leafs. Huge cash for me on that game at +600 for the Yotes in regulation. They’re still a terrible team though. Through their 1-2 start to the season, they’ve averaged 3 goals per game on an average of 23.7 shots on goal while allowing an average of 4.67 goals per game, giving up a high average of 41.3 shots on goal per game. The Habs are 2-2 now, coming off their 3-2 win (double loser for me) against the Penguins on Monday night. In their four games, Marty St. Louis’ team has scored an average of only 2 goals per game on an average of 28.3 shots on goal. Defensively they’ve been better than I expected, limiting the scoring against them to an average of 2.75 goals per game on an average of 32.3 shots on goal. Arizona won both games that these two teams played last season, both high scoring games. No chance I’m betting anything on this game, but I’d slightly lean Montreal wins at home.
Rangers vs. Sharks (7:00)
The Rangers look phenomenal to start the season with a 3-1 record, coming off a 6-4 win against the Ducks on Monday. Their offense has been fantastic and better than I expected, averaging 4.25 goals per game on an average of 39.5 shots on goal. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game, limiting their shots allowed to an average of 29.5 per game. Last year’s Vezina winner is projected to start tonight against a very offensively weak Sharks team. San Jose is 0-5 and they’ve looked horrible so far this year, coming off a 5-2 loss to the Islanders on Monday night. Their offense has been horrible, only averaging 1.6 goals per game through their five games on an average of 27.4 shots on goal. This could be the worst offensive unit in the league. They’ve allowed an average of 2.8 goals per game on an average of 31.2 shots allowed. Last season the Rangers shut out the Sharks in both games these teams played. This game is a no brainer to me that I think the Rags win at home in MSG with the reigning Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin shutting down a weak Sharks offense. The price here, especially on the moneyline is expensive but I’ll go with a unit on the Rangers in regulation, half a unit on the the Sharks TT under 2.5 in regulation and half a unit on a SGP of Rangers TT over 3.5 and Sharks TT under 2.5.
Senators vs. Capitals (7:00)
The Sens shocked me with their offense performance on Tuesday night as they beat the Bruins in a 7-5 game in their home opener that made no sense to me. They’re now 1-2 after road losses to the Leafs and my Sabres to start their year. Ottawa has been better this season offensively, averaging 3.33 goals per game on an average of 31.7 shots on goal. The Caps are 2-2 this season, coming off two goals wins against the Canucks and Canadiens in their last two games. Washington has both scored and allowed an average of 3.25 goals per game. They’ve generated an average of 30 shots on goal per game while allowing an average of 30.3 goals per game. They’re looking more and more like a bubble team that either just makes the playoffs and gets bounced in the first round or just misses playoffs. Last season Washington won two of the three games between these two Eastern Conference games. I like the Capitals to keep their win streak going tonight with a win on the road and I’ll take them for half a unit here in this pick em matchup. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Penguins vs. Kings (7:00)
The Penguins crushed me with a double loser on Tuesday night, taking their first loss of the season on a 3-2 overtime loss in Montreal after losing dominant with their 6-2 wins against the Coyotes and Lightning to start the season. Through their three games the Penguins have scored an average of 4.67 goals per game, generating a ton of shots, an average of 42 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 2.33 goals per game on an average of 34.3 shots on goal per game. Tonight they have Tristan Jarry confirmed in goal (2.01 GAA, .938 save percentage). The Kings have now rattled off three straight wins on the road against the Predators (4-3, SO), Red Wings (5-4, OT) and Wild (7-6). Their offense has been decent, averaging 3.8 goals per game on an average of 32.4 shots on goal but their defense has struggled, allowing an average of 4.2 goals per game on an average of 34.6 shots on goal. Last year LA won both games between these teams, beating the Pens 6-2 and 4-3. I like Pittsburgh to bounce back from their disappointing loss to the Habs with a win tonight and will take them on the ML for half a unit. I’d lean the over here with two solid offense and a struggling defense for the Kings but don’t like it at 6.5 juiced up to the over, so I’ll stay off it.
Maple Leafs vs. Stars (7:00)
Blow Leafs Blow. Toronto’s coming off an embarrassing 4-2 loss at home to the Coyotes on Monday night (nice winner for me on the Yotes in regulation at +600) and they’re now 2-2 on the season with pathetic losses to Arizona and Montreal. The Leafs have surprisingly been better defensively than offensively this season. They’ve limited their opponents to an average of 3 goals per game on an average of just 24 shots on goal. Their offense has generated an average of 2.75 goals per game on an average of 32.8 shots on goal. Dallas is now 3-0 to start their season and their defense looks fantastic. The Stars have allowed just a goal in each of their three games against the Preds twice and the Jets on an average of 29 shots on goal. They have been very efficient offensively, averaging 4.33 goals per game on an average of 26.7 shots on goal. Last year in the two games between these first round seven game playoff exit teams, the Leafs won both of the games that they played. I don’t really know how to evaluate this game. I’d lean the Leafs get a win to bounce back at home from their loss to the Yotes and give the Stars their first loss of the season tonight but I have zero interest in betting on this game. I’d slightly lean the under as well but not enough to bet it.
Islanders vs. Devils (7:30)
The Islanders have been really solid to start the season on both ends of the ice. They’re now 2-1 after beating up on the Sharks in a 5-2 win on Tuesday and the Ducks in a 7-1 blowout on Saturday. The Isles offense has scored an average of 4.33 goals per game on an average of 39 shots on goal while allowing an average of 2 goals per game on an average of 26.7 shots on goal. Ilya Sorokin has been phenomenal in goal so far with a 1.52 GAA and .941 save percentage in the two games that he has played. The Devils come into tonight’s game off their first win of the season, beating the Ducks 4-2 on Tuesday night (coming a goal short of hitting my over in that one) after 5-2 losses to start their year against the Red Wings and Flyers. They’ve scored an average of just 2.67 goals per game on an average of 39 shots on goal while allowing an average of 4 goals per game on an average of just 22.3 shots on goal. So they’ve been very inefficient on both ends of the ice and their goaltending from both Blackwood and Vanecek has been horrible. Last year these two teams out of the NY area split their two games, both being decided by three goals. I love the Islanders to beat up on the Devils at home tonight and the price on this game is cheaper than I had expected it to be. I’ll take the Isles for a unit.
Wild vs. Canucks (8:00)
Both of these teams have had a disappointing start to their seasons, still looking for their first wins of the year. The 0-3 Wild have been extremely bad defensively in their first three games of the season. Minnesota’s allowed an insanely high average of 6.67 goals per game on an average of 35.7 shots on goal per game. What makes even less sense here is that former Vezina winner Marc-Andre Fleury has a horrid 8.37 GAA and .776 save percentage so far. The Wild’s offense hasn’t been bad whatsoever, averaging 4 goals per game on an average of 36.7 shots on goal. The Canucks started their year 0-3-1, coming off a 4-3 overtime loss to the Blue Jackets on Tuesday night. They’ve averaged 3 goals per game on an average of 32.8 shots on goal and their defense has struggled a lot too, allowing an average of 4.5 shots on goal per game on an average of 29.8 shots on goal per game. Last year the Wild swept the season series between these two Western Conference teams, winning by a score 3-2 twice and 6-3. I think this is the get right spot at home for Fleury and Minnesota. I’ll go with half a unit each on the Wild ML and the over.
Oilers vs. Hurricanes (9:00)
The Oilers are 1-2 to start off their season after losses to my Sabres and the Flames. They’re coming off that 4-2 loss to Buffalo on Tuesday in a game that they outshot the Sabres 48-24 and couldn’t get the puck past a phenomenal performance from Eric Comrie. In their three games this season, McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane and the very good Edmonton offense have averaged 3.33 goals per game on an average of 34 shots on goal but their defense doesn’t look much improved from last year, allowing an average of 3.67 goals per game on an average of 34 shots on goal. Jack Campbell who is confirmed in goal tonight hasn’t looked great through his two games in Edmonton since coming over in the offseason from the Leafs and has a 5.98 GAA and .851 save percentage through those two games. The Carolina Hurricanes could absolutely be a Stanley Cup contender this season with a very capable offense and what could be the best defensive team in the NHL. They’re 3-0 to start their year with wins against Columbus, San Jose and Seattle. In those games, they’ve allowed just a goal in each of those games on an average of only 24.7 shots allowed. Offensively, they’ve scored an average of 3.67 goals per game on an average of 37.3 shots on goal. Carolina won both games these cross division playoff teams played last season in low scoring games with a 3-1 and 2-1 win. I think this game could be a lot of fun to watch. I’d lean the Hurricanes keep their winning streak going on the road tonight but not enough to bet on either side of this, especially with the Oilers looking to bounce back from their disappointing loss to the Sabres. I’ll stay off this game completely from a betting perspective with the Oilers side of things making me lean towards the over but the Canes side making me lean towards the under.
Flames vs. Sabres (9:30)
My Sabres started their west coast road trip on Tuesday with a huge 4-2 win in Edmonton to move to 2-1 on the season. As a huge Buffalo fan, I’ve been pleased with their start, playing solid competitive hockey through their first three games to start of the year. Through three games, they’ve scored an average of 3.67 goals per game on an average of 29 shots on goal. They are overachieving defensively though with great (and unexpected) goaltending play from Anderson and Comrie, who have allowed an average of just 2.33 goals per game while the defense has allowed an average of 40.3 shots on goal per game. The Flames through their three game start to the season are undefeated so far with wins against the Avs, Oilers and Golden Knights. They look like easily the best team in the West in the NHL this season and have been great on both ends of the ice. I’ll definitely be looking at Stanley Cup futures on this team soon. Calgary is coming off a 3-2 comeback win against the Knights in a very fun game on Tuesday night, coming back from down 2-0 to win on a Mikael Backlund goal with 4:29 remaining in regulation in a game where they outshot Vegas 40-21. In their start to the season, Calgary has averaged 4 goals per game on an average of 36.3 shots on goal and they have allowed an average of 2.67 goals per game on an average of 25 shots on goal. As much as I’d love a Sabres win tonight, I don’t have much faith in them getting it done tonight against a really good Flames team. The moneyline on the Flames at -278 is a bit too expensive for me but I’ll bet against my team tonight and take Calgary in regulation for half a unit.
Golden Knights vs. Jets (10:00)
Vegas took their first loss of the season on Tuesday night in a great game in Calgary, losing 3-2 and getting outshot 40-21 by the Flames. Prior to that game, the Knights hadn’t played great competition with dominant wins against the Kraken, Blackhawks and Kings. In their four games this year, Vegas has scored an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 34.8 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 2 goals per game on an average of 32.5 shots allowed per game. Winnipeg is on the second half of a road back to back after their big 3-2 overtime win in Colorado last night against the defending Cup champs to move to 2-1 on the season. They’ve scored an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 29 shots on goal. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 2.67 goals per game while giving up an average of 34.3 shots on goal. On the second half of a back to back, Winnipeg is projected to start backup David Rittich in goal for the first time this season. Rittich was horrible last season in Nashville backing up Juuse Saros with a 3.57 GAA and .886 save percentage. Rittich is a significant downgrade from Connor Hellebuyck, who’s one of the best goalies in the NHL. Last season the Jets swept the Golden Knights in the three games that they played. I like the Golden Knights to stay hot on their start to the season with another win tonight in the fortress against a Jets team thats on the second half of a back to back on the road after a big overtime win last night. I’ll take Vegas in regulation for half a unit and the Vegas TT over 3.5 for a unit. I’d lean the over as well but with it at 6.5 juiced all the way up to -134, I’ll stay off the total in this game.
1u Bruins in regulation (-136)
.5u Predators ML (-145)
1u Rangers in regulation (-175)
.5u Sharks TT under 2.5 in regulation (-150)
.5u SGP: Rangers TT over 3.5 & Sharks TT under 2.5 (+175)
.5u Capitals ML (-108)
.5u Penguins ML (-195)
1u Islanders ML (-150)
.5u Wild ML (-175)
.5u Wild/Canucks over 6.5 (-110)
.5u Flames in regulation (-167)
.5u Golden Knights in regulation (-130)
1u Golden Knights TT over 3.5 (-150)
Record: 33-26-1 (-2 units)
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