I split my bets on yesterday’s small NHL slate, going 1-1 to lose just 0.23 units. Tonight we have a six game slate, let’s crush these games!
Devils vs. Capitals (7:00)
The Devils have rattled off three wins in a row to improve to 3-2 on the season after their 2-1 win against the Sharks on Saturday night, finally seeing results for their very good underlying stats after starting their season with two 5-2 losses to the Flyers and Red Wings. New Jersey has lead the NHL through their first five games this season in expected goal percentage and high danger scoring chances which has just translated to an average of 2.8 goals per game on an average of 39.2 shots on goal. Defensively they’ve limited the shots against them to an average of 21.2 allowed and have given up an average of 2.8 goals per game. The Caps are now 3-3, coming off a 4-3 win against where they came back from a 2-0 deficit and scored four goals in the third period for their win. They have scored an average of 3.17 goals per game on an average of 29.3 shots on goal and have allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game on an average of 31.8 shots on goal allowed. The Capitals will start backup goaltender Charlie Lindgren in goal, who’s a downgrade from Darcy Kuemper. Last season Washington won two of the three games that these teams played against each other. I’d lean the Devils get a win here in a close game at home and will take them for half a unit. I would slightly lean the over as well but not enough to bet on it.
Senators vs. Stars (7:00)
The Stars have been very good to start off their season with a 4-0-1 record after a 5-2 win in Montreal on Saturday night. They have been very good on both ends of the ice so far this year, scoring an average of 4 goals per game on an average of 27.6 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of just 1.6 goals per game while giving up an average of 32.8 shots on goal. After starting their year losing to the Sabres and Leafs, the Senators have won their last three straight games against the Bruins, Capitals and Coyotes to move to 3-2 on the year with their offense looking fantastic in those last three games. On the season they have no scored an average of 4.2 goals per game on an average of 34.2 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 3.2 goals per game on an average of 29.6 shots on goal allowed. The Sens are starting Magnus Hellberg for just his fifth NHL start in nine years. Last season the Sens won both games between these teams. I’d expect Dallas to get a win on the road here in what’s likely a close game and with the question mark of Hellberg starting in goal, I’ll take them for half a unit at even money.
Oilers vs. Penguins (8:00)
The Penguins have had a pretty weak schedule to start their year but they’ve looked fantastic in their 4-0-1 start to the year. They’re coming off another dominant win on Saturday night in Columbus, beating the Blue Jackets 6-3. They have scored six goals in all four of their wins and on the season they’re averaging an impressive 5.2 goals per game on an average of 39.8 shots on goal. One of their best forwards, Jake Guentzel will be out of the lineup tonight with injury. Defensively they’ve been good as well with great play in goal from Tristan Jarry (2.01 GAA, .941 save percentage) and they’ve allowed an average of 2.2 goals per game on an average of 35 shots on goal that they have given up. McDavid, Draisaitl and the Oilers haven’t been great to start the season. They’re 2-3, not having even played a road game yet and they’re coming off a 2-0 shutout loss to the Blues on Saturday. They’ve been fine offensively on the year, averaging 3.2 goals per game on an average of 31.6 shots on goal but they’ve struggled in goal, allowing an average of 3.4 goals per game on an average of 32.8 shots allowed. Last year these score conference playoff teams played twice with the Oilers winning both games in dramatic fashion, beating the Pens 5-2 and 5-1. I think Pittsburgh is the better team this season though and I’ll take the Penguins TT over 3 for a unit. I’d lean they win the game but I think this could be a close one and would rather just stick to the team total. I like the over as well and will take it for half a unit.
Jets vs. Blues (8:00)
The Blues are an undefeated 3-0 to start their year, coming off 2-0 shutout win in Edmonton on Saturday night. They’ve been good on both ends of the ice so far this year, averaging 3.67 goals per game on an average of 25 shots on goal per game and have allowed an average of just 1.67 goals per game on an average of 27.7 shots on goal. Backup goaltender Thomas Greiss will get his first start for the Blues since coming over in the offseason from the Red Wings where he wasn’t great. The Jets have started their year 2-3, coming off a 4-1 loss to the Leafs at home on Saturday. Winnipeg has struggled a bit on both ends of the ice through their five games. Their offense has scored an average of just 2.4 goals per game on an average of 29.2 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 3.4 goals per game on an average of 32.6 shots allowed. Last year the Jets won three of the four games these Central Division teams played. I think St. Louis is the better team here and I’d slightly lean the Blues and the under but not enough to bet on either with Greiss starting for St. Louis, so I will stay off betting this game.
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs (10:00)
This should be a fun game to watch between two 4-2 teams that I don’t have huge exceptions to go far after they both likely make the playoffs. The Leafs are coming off a 4-1 win in Winnipeg on Saturday night and have now won four of their last five games after losing their season opener in Montreal. Their expensive offense has scored an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 33.7 shots on goal. Defensively they’ve been decent enough, allowing an average of 2.5 goals per game on an average of 25.8 shots per game. The Golden Knights are coming off a 3-1 loss at home to the Avalanche on Saturday but they’re good on both ends of the ice so far this year. They’ve scored an average of 3.17 goals per game on an average of 34.3 shots on goal and they have allowed an average of 2.17 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots allowed. Last year the Leafs won both games between these teams. I’d lean Vegas wins this game at home but there’s no edge to me in betting on what to me is essentially a coin flip of a game with these two very closely matched teams. I’d slightly lean the over as well but the trends don’t point to any value in betting it. I’ll stay off betting this game but will likely watch it.
Canucks vs. Hurricanes (10:30)
The Canucks got booed by their fans in their home opener on Saturday night as they lost to the Sabres in blowout fashion, losing 5-1 (which I loved to watch). Vancouver’s been pretty bad on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of 2.67 goals per game on an average of 31.2 shots on goal. Thatcher Demko was a good goalie last season but so far this year has been horrible with a 4.24 GAA and .858 save percentage. With his play in goal, the Canucks have allowed an average of 4.5 goals per game while giving up an average of 30.5 shots on goal. The Hurricanes are coming off back to back losses in Alberta, losing 3-2 in overtime to the Flames on Saturday and 6-4 to the Oilers on Thursday. They now come into tonight with a 3-1-1 record looking to get right. I have very high expectations for Carolina this year and they’ve been good so far on both ends of the ice. The Canes have scored an average of 3.4 goals per game, generating an average of 35.8 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 2.4 goals per game on an average of just 27.8 shots they’ve given up. Last year these teams split the two games they played with both hitting the under. I’d expect the Canes to get a win here on the road to bounce back from their back to back losses with a dominant win against the struggling Canucks and will take them for half a unit.
Game Bets
.5u Devils ML (-130)
.5u Stars ML (+100)
1u Penguins TT over 3 (-155)
.5u Penguins/Oilers over 6.5 (-130)
.5u Hurricanes ML (-150)
Record: 46-38-1 (-6.4 units)
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