On yesterday’s big NHL slate I went 4-6 to lose 1.85 units. Not great. Need to bounce back tonight on this small three game slate.
Islanders vs. Rangers (7:30)
Tonight the two New York teams face off on Long Island, both coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak. Last night in a great game at home against the Avalanche, the Rangers lost 3-2 in a shootout. That game was a fantastic goaltending battle with the Rags outshooting the Avs 46-44. In their 3-2-2 start to their season, the Rangers have both scored and allowed an average of 3.14 goals per game while outshooting their competition 36.9-30 on average. With Igor Shesterkin starting in their game last night, the Rangers will likely start backup Jaroslav Halak tonight. Halak has been pretty bad through his two starts this season, losses to Winnipeg and Columbus where he had an abysmal 4.03 GAA and .852 save percentage. The Isles are 2-4 this season coming off back to back losses in the state of Florida on Saturday (5-3 to Tampa) and Sunday (3-2 to the Panthers). They’ve scored an average of 3.17 goals per game on an average of 32.3 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 30.2 shots allowed. Last season these teams split the four games they played with three of those four matchups hitting the under. With the Rangers on the second half of a back to back and likely to start Halak in goal, I like the Islanders to get a win tonight at home against their rivals and will take them for half a unit tonight. I’d lean the under as well but not enough to bet on it.
Blues vs. Oilers (8:00)
The Blues are 3-1, coming into tonight’s game off their first loss of the season, getting shut out 4-0 in Winnipeg on Monday night. They’ve struggled offensively, averaging 2.75 goals per game on an average of just 25 shots on goal. The Blues have had at least six less scoring chances than their opponent in their last three games and they only scored four non-empty net goals in those three games (and three of those goals were against the Kraken). Defensively they’ve been good and have allowed an average of just 2.25 goals per game on an average of 31.5 shots on goal. Jordan Binnington is back in goal tonight and is 3-0 this season with a 1.65 GAA, a .940 save percentage and a shutout. McDavid, Draisaitl and the Oilers are 3-3, coming off a big 6-3 win at home against the Penguins on Monday night (easy hit on my over in that game). They’ve been good offensively, averaging 3.67 goals per game on an average of 34.2 shots per game. Defensively they have allowed an average of 3.33 goals per game on an average of 33.2 shots on goal they’ve given up. Jack Campbell will get the night off tonight with Stuart Skinner confirmed in goal, who I don’t really trust. These teams just played each other this past Saturday with the Blues getting a 2-0 shutout win in Edmonton. Last year the Oilers won two of the three games these teams played with all three of those games hitting the over. I’d very slightly lean the Oilers get a win on the road here in a close game to even up the season series but not enough to bet on it, so I’ll stay off a side. I’d also lean the over but not enough to bet on it. I’ll pass on betting on this game entirely.
Ducks vs. Lightning (10:00)
Last night I took a loss on the Lightning, as they lost 4-2 in LA to drop to 3-4 on the season. The three time defending Eastern Conference champions haven’t been very impressive yet to start this season. They’ve scored an average of just 2.86 on an average of 31.7 shots and they’ve allowed an average of 3.29 goals per game on an average of 34.6 shots on goal they’ve given up. On the second half of a back to back after starting Vasilevskiy in LA last night, the Lightning will likely start backup Brian Elliot tonight who is a significant downgrade for them and has a 4.04 GAA and .899 save percentage. John Gibson has been horrible in goal with a 4.52 GAA and .892 save percentage behind one of the worst defenses in the NHL with the Ducks allowing an average of 4.5 goals per game on an average of 41.2 shots on goal allowed. Their offense is pretty bad as well, averaging just 2.33 goals per game on an average of only 26 shots on goal. These cross conference teams split their two games last season with a 5-1 Ducks win and a 4-3 Bolts win. I think the Bolts bounce back from their loss last night with a win on the road against this lousy Anaheim team but don’t trust them enough to bet on them in this situation, especially with Elliot in goal. I like the over in this game with a horrible defense and goaltending for the Ducks and Elliot probably in goal for the Lightning on the second half of a back to back. I’ll take the over 6.5 for half a unit.
.5u Islanders ML (-132)
.5u Lightning/Ducks over 6.5 (-109)
Record: 52-46-2 (-8.4 units)
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