Port Royal Golf Course – Bermuda

Last week we had easily the best field of the PGA Tour fall swing season where I hit another winner on Rory McIlroy. This week we have the worst field I maybe have ever see for the Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course.

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 6828 yards, very short yardage course with most golfers hitting less than driver off the tee on most holes besides the Par 5s, the Par 5s are short with all three under 555 yards and they’re the three easiest holes on the course with the ability for the entire field including the shortest hitters to get there in two, six of the Par 4s are under 400 yards with only one on the course playing over 450 yards (and only from the back tee boxes), all four Par 3s are over 200 yards, average sized fairways with bunkers in the landing areas, lots of elevation changes throughout the course especially off the tee, Zoysia grass rough shouldn’t be too thick or penal, water in play on five holes, small to average sized Bermuda grass greens without much slope or undulation and are pretty soft and slow, weather is always a factor here with a ton of wind that changes the way the course plays out each year, driving accuracy here is much lower than tour average (~53% vs. 62%), 

Tournament Notes

• This is only the fourth year of this event with the first year being an alternate field event the same week of the WGC-HSBC Championship, which no longer exists 

Key Stats

Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 4 Scoring

Field

126 golfers – complete garbage field, arguably the worst field strength for a standard field event ever on the PGA Tour

Last Year’s Champion (not defending since he’s not even here this week): Lucas Herbert (-15)

Runner Up Last Year: Danny Lee, Patrick Reed (-14)

Players

Thomas Detry: 10500: +2600 – T22 here last year, 69,9,12,34,10 finishes in his last give events, 42nd in Approach, 51st in SG: OTT, 30th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 1st in Proximity: 200+ yards, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 51st in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 57th in SG: ARG, 12th in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained, 26th in Bogie Avoidance

Mark Hubbard: 10000: +2500 – T22 here last year and T41 here in 2020, 66,28,5,21 finishes in his last four events, 1st in Approach, 61st in SG: OTT, 25th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 63rd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 16th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 54th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 69th in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 31st in Birdie+ Gained, 16th in Bogie Avoidance

Patrick Rodgers: 9700: +3000 – 4th,T59,MC finishes here the last three years, 16,28,54 finishes in his last three events, 45th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 112th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 64th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 18th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 78th in SG: ARG, 26th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 28th in Birdie+ Gained, 8th in Bogie Avoidance

Alex Smalley: 9500: +3100 – T12 here last year, 52,25,MC,43,44 finishes in his last five events, 11th in Approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 75th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 3rd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 42nd in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 28th in Par 4 Scoring, 31st in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 67th in SG: ARG, 73rd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained, 18th in Bogie Avoidance

Adam Long: 8900: +4000 – First time playing here, 53,30,MC,MC,16,13 finishes in his last six events, 6th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 7th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 74th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 51st in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 64th in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 104th in Opportunities Gained, 81st in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance

Chesson Hadley: 7600: +6600 – T16 here in 2021, 37,MC,MC,MC,8,MC,10 finishes in his last seven events, 2nd in Approach, 105th in SG: OTT, 43rd in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 43rd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 44th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 83rd in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained, 17th in Bogie Avoidance

Ben Griffin: 7200: +9000 – Somehow first in my model, first time playing here, 60,24,MC,4 finishes in his last four events, 4th in Approach, 75th in SG: OTT, 11th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 3rd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 34th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 29th in SG: ARG, 28th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 43rd in Bogie Avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Proximity: 100-125 yards (5%)

Proximity: 200+ yards (10%)

Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• This is such a shitty field so I’m taking slightly more golfers this week for a bigger card but cutting all my bets in half of what they typically would be since I don’t really trust any of these scrubs. I also considered doing each ways but the odds aren’t worth it.

Bets

Outrights

.2u Mark Hubbard (+2500)

.2u Thomas Detry (+2600)

.18u Patrick Rodgers (+3000)

.18u Alex Smalley (+3100)

.14u Adam Long (+4000)

.08u Chesson Hadley (+6600)

.06u Ben Griffin (+9000)

---

Please follow me:

Instagram: @atownszone

Twitter: @atownszone

TikTok: @atownszone

If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!