El Camaleon Golf Club – Playa del Carmen, Mexico

Last week I couldn’t hit an outright but came so close with three of my golfers finishing T3. This week the PGA goes to El Camaleon Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico for the Mayakoba Golf Classic.

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7017 yards, Greg Norman design, all three of the Par 5s are reachable in two by most of the field and they’re the three easiest holes on the course, the Par 3s are very short with only the 10th hole over 160 yards, 6 Par 4s between 400-460 yards, lot of trouble off the fairway so hitting it accurately is important and they play tight, driving distance doesn’t matter here, lot of golfers will go less than driver off the tee, rough isn’t too bad if they miss mildly but there’s a lot of trouble about ten yards out from the fairway, lot of water with it in play on about half the holes, pretty slow seaside paspalum greens without much slope and undulation, some greens are elevated with false fronts, weather could be a big factor to how the course plays since its right on the ocean, in years that it isn’t windy this place is an easy birdiefest

Tournament Notes

• This was originally an alternate field event the week of the WGC Match Play but moved to a full field fall swing season event in 2013
• This could be the last season that this course hosts this event as it may become a LIV Tour stop (since Greg Norman designed it)
• 10 of the last 14 winners here have been over 30 and veterans win here
• Course history doesn’t seem to matter much though as 4 of the last 10 winners here won on their first time here

Key Stats

Approach, Fairways Gained, Opportunities Gained

Corollary Courses

• Coco Beach (Puerto Rico Open)
• Waialae Country Club (Sony Open)
• Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
• Port Royal Golf Course (Bermuda Championship)

Field

132 golfers – Decent field strength for a swing season event with a few stars at the top

Defending Champion: Viktor Hovland (-23)

Runner Up Last Year: Carlos Ortiz (-19)

Players

Collin Morikawa: 10600: +1700 – 29,45,21,44,5 finishes in his last five events, first time playing here, 3rd in Approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 10th in Fairways Gained, 49th in Par 4 Scoring, 53rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 107th in SG: ARG, 128th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 19th in Birdie+ Gained

Tom Hoge: 9500: +3000 – 13,9,4,12,10 finishes in his last five events, 56th here last year, 4th in Approach, 86th in SG: OTT, 44th in Fairways Gained, 33rd in Par 4 Scoring, 19th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 109th in SG: ARG, 20th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained

Emiliano Grillo: 9100: +3500 – 45,4,73,5,25,19,31,2 finishes in his last eight events, MC here last year, 21st in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 58th in Fairways Gained, 19th in Par 4 Scoring, 43rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 54th in SG: ARG, 32nd in Putting, 27th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained

Brendon Todd: 9000: +4500 – 7,28,MC,9 finishes in his last four events, finished 11th here last year, 48th in Approach, 116th in SG: OTT, 20th in Fairways Gained, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 20th in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 67th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained

Russell Henley: 8400: +4500 – 45,MC,35,MC,5,10 finishes in his last six events, finished 56th here last year, 1st in Approach, 60th in SG: OTT, 6th in Fairways Gained, 42nd in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 22nd in SG: ARG, 125th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 58th in Birdie+ Gained

Andrew Putnam: 8100: +5500 – 29,2,12,30,43,23,5,11 finishes in his last eight events, finished 64th here last year, 36th in Approach, 113th in SG: OTT, 16th in Fairways Gained, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 6th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 101st in Opportunities Gained, 31st in Birdie+ Gained

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Fairways Gained (10%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.6u Collin Morikawa (+1700)

.34u Tom Hoge (+3000)

.3u Emiliano Grillo (+3500)

.24u Brendon Todd (+4500)

.24u Russell Henley (+4500)

.2u Andrew Putnam (+5500)

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