I made the right calls on yesterday’s NHL slate but with a late game choke for the Flames and Florida only scoring a goal on 42 shots in Arizona, I ended up with a losing night going 3-4 losing 2.06 units. Tonight we have only two games before another big slate tomorrow.
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers (7:00)
The Leafs are on a bad skid right now, losing their last four games in a row with their last three coming against very weak teams in California. They’re now 4-4-2 on the season after their 4-3 overtime loss in Anaheim on Sunday. Toronto returns home tonight to face off against the Flyers. On the season the Leafs haven’t been spectacular on either end of the ice. They’ve scored an average of 2.7 goals per game on an average of 31.4 shots generated and they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 28.7 shots allowed. The Flyers are overachieving under John Tortorella, starting the season at 5-2-2. They’re on the second half of a back to back tonight after their second overtime loss in a row last night after losing 1-0 in OT against the Rangers in a double shutout. Philly is dead last in the NHL in shot attempts and they’ve averaged 2.67 goals per game on an average of 26.4 shots per game. Carter Hart stealing games as the Flyers have given up the second most goals expected in the NHL but he’s playing incredible shutting down the net. With his play in goal the Flyers have allowed an average of just 2.44 per game on an average of 35.9 shots allowed per game. Carter Hart is projected to get the night off on the second half of a back to back with Felix Sandstrom projected to start tonight. Sandstrom had a .902 save percentage in the AHL last year and in the two NHL losses he’s had this season he has a 3.14 GAA and .900 save percentage. Last year, not surprising in the slightest, the Leafs swept their season series against the Flyers, winning all three games by a three goal margin with 3-0, 6-3 and 5-2 wins. If Carter Hart was starting tonight I would take a shot on the Flyers or at least take the Flyers +1.5 with the fantastic value on that, but with the Leafs at home and desperate for a win after that losing streak I’d rather just stay off this game. Toronto should win tonight but this team is in no way worth the -325 price. Blow Leafs Blow.
Sabres vs. Penguins (7:30)
The Sabres played an incredible game on Monday night with a scary good 8-3 victory against the Red Wings on Halloween with Tage Thompson scoring six points including a hat trick. That was Buffalo’s second win in a row to improve to 6-3 on the year after coming back to beat the Blackhawks 4-3 in overtime on Saturday. The Sabres have been quite good offensively this season, averaging 4.11 goals per game on an average of 33.1 goals per game and they’ve been fine on the back end, allowing an average of 2.78 goals per game on an average of 32.9 shots given up. The Penguins are on a huge losing streak, dropping to 4-4-2 on the season and coming into tonight’s game on a five game losing streak after losing 6-5 in overtime to the Bruins at home last night. The Pens had a 5-2 lead in the second period of that very fun game but blew that lead, giving up three unanswered goals to tie it with Hampus Lindholm ending the game in overtime. The Penguins have been good offensively, scoring an average of 3.7 goals per game on an average of 37.3 shots generated but they’ve struggled on the back end, allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game on an average of 35.7 shots per game they’ve allowed. On the second half of a back to back, the Penguins are projecting to start backup Casey DeSmith in goal tonight. DeSmith through three starts is still looking for his first win of the season with 2.97 GAA and .913 save percentage. Last year despite being a much inferior team to the Pens, the Sabres won two of the three games played between these teams with all three games decided by a goal. I wish the price was better than this, but I’ll still take the Sabres for half a unit. I also like the over which I’ll take for a half unit as well.
.5u Sabres ML (+104)
.5u Sabres/Penguins over 6.5 (-110)
Record: 70-67-2 (-15.01 units)
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