Third profitable NHL day in a row yesterday as I went 2-1 on the small two game slate to win 0.78 units. Today we have a huge 14 game slate, let’s keep chipping away with more winning!
Red Wings vs. Islanders (1:00)
The Islanders are playing really well right now, on a five game win streak with a 7-4 record going into today’s early game on the road. They’re coming off a 5-2 win in St. Louis on Thursday where they scored four goals in the second period. The Isles have been good on both ends of the ice to start their season, scoring an average of 3.73 goals per game on an average of 33 shots on goal and allowing an average of just 2.46 goals per game on an average of 31.8 shots allowed. Ilya Sorokin, who’s projected to start today has been very good in between the pipes with a 2.03 GAA and .936 save percentage with a shutout this season. The Red Wings have improved from last season, coming into today’s game with a 5-3-2 record off a 3-1 home win against the Capitals on Thursday. Detroit has scored an average of 3.1 goals per game on an average of 28.4 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 3.3 goals per game on an average of 35.1 shots allowed. The Red Wings are projected to start backup Alex Nedeljkovic in goal today, who has struggled this season with a 4.96 GAA and .871 save percentage. Last year in the three games played between these teams, the Red Wings won two of the three games these teams played. I like the Isles to keep their win streak going here and will take them for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the over as well but not enough to bet it.
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanche (2:00)
Yesterday afternoon these teams played in the first of these NHL Global Series between them in Finland with the Avs cashing my regulation bet with a 6-3 win. Colorado got out to a 3-0 lead early in the second period but let their foot off the gas a bit, let the Jackets tie it up and then won with two goals in less than three minutes. Colorado was the much better team in this game but played down to Columbus’s level at times. On the season the Avalanche are now 5-4-1. They’re scoring an average of 3.4 goals per game on an average of 31.7 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 33.6 shots allowed. The Blue Jackets are 3-8 on the year, coming into today’s game on a four game losing streak. They haven’t been great offensively, averaging 2.64 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots on goal. They’ve been even worse on the back end as one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL, allowing an average of 4.55 goals per game on an average of 34.6 shots allowed. The Blue Jackets have been one of the few teams in the NHL who have trended over, which hit easily yesterday and I’ll take the over today for a unit. Along with that, I’ll go back to the Avs here with a half unit each on the Avalanche in regulation and the Avalanche team total over 3.5.
Jets vs. Blackhawks (3:00)
The Winnipeg Jets are 6-3-1 and they’ve played solid hockey as of late, coming into today’s game with 4-0-1 record in their last five games, with their last three games all going to overtime. The Jets offense hasn’t been great, averaging just 2.9 goals per game on an average of 30.3 shots on goal but they’ve been very good defensively, allowing an average of 2.7 goals per game on an average of 32.3 shots allowed. Connor Hellebuyck, one of the best goalies in the NHL is likely to start today with a 2.35 GAA and .929 save percentage with a shutout this season. The Blackhawks got off their four game losing streak on Thursday, beating the Kings 2-1 in a shootout to improve to 5-4-2 on the season. Chicago’s overachieving to start the season but they’re not a good team. They’ve both scored and allowed an average of 3.09 goals per game while getting outshot by an average of 25.1-34.1. In the games played between these teams last season, the Jets won two of the three. I like the Jets to win this game but the price on it is too expensive at -225 and I don’t trust them enough to win in regulation. I do like the under though and will take the alternate under 6.5 here for half a unit.
Oilers vs. Stars (4:00)
Both of these teams have played really good hockey this season. In one of the best hockey games I’ve watched all year, the Oilers five game win streak came to an end on Thursday as they lost 4-3 at home to the Devils. In that incredible game, the Oilers blew a 3-1 lead going into the third period, giving up the tying and winning goals just seven seconds apart with less than four minutes left in regulation. Edmonton’s offense has been fantastic, lead by Connor McDavid’s NHL leading 24 points (12 goals, 12 assists), averaging 4 goals per game on an average of 33.7 goals per game. Defensively they haven’t been as hot, allowing an average of 3.27 goals per game on an average of 34.6 shots allowed. Dallas just trounced the Coyotes 7-2 on Thursday night for their third win in their last four games to move to 7-3-1 on the year. The Stars have been quite good on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of 3.64 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of only 2.27 on an average of 31 shots allowed. Last year Dallas won two of their three games against the Oilers. I’d slightly lean Edmonton and the over here today but this is likely too close of a game for me to be comfortable betting. I’ll stay off it. If this wasn’t a college football Saturday, I’d definitely be tuning in to watch this game without action.
Lightning vs. Sabres (7:00)
Both of these teams are coming off losses to the Carolina Hurricanes. Last night in Carolina, the Sabres three game win streak came to an end with a 5-3 loss to the Hurricanes, who just were the better team. That loss ended the Sabres three game win streak, moving my boys to 7-4 on the season. The Sabres offense has been fantastic, one of the highest scoring teams in the NHL so far this year, averaging 4.18 goals per game on an average of 32.4 shots on goal. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 31.8 shots on goal. The Lightning lost 4-3 in a shootout in Carolina on Thursday, ending their three game win streak and the three time defending Eastern Conference champions are 6-4-1 on the season. They’ve scored an average of 3.18 goals per game on an average of 30.7 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 3.09 goals per game on an average of 32.7 shots allowed per game. They’re projected to start their world class goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal tonight. Last year the Bolts won two of their three games against the Sabres with all three games decided in blowout fashion with a 5-1 Sabres win, 6-1 Lightning win and 5-0 Lightning win. I like Tampa to win here at home with the Sabres keeping it close. That being said, I don’t think the moneyline is worth betting on the Bolts at the -250 price. I considered betting the Sabres +1.5 again but don’t feel as confident on it with Buffalo on the second half of a road back to back, so I’ll stay off a side. I like the over though and will take it for half a unit with both teams trending in that direction.
Canadiens vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
The Golden Knights under new head coach Bruce Cassidy have looked like an absolutely elite team this season, leading the Western Conference with a 10-2 record, coming into tonight’s game on a six game win streak. Vegas has scored an average of 3.33 goals per game on an average of 33.6 shots on goal. They’ve been one of the best defensive teams the NHL, allowing an average of only 1.92 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots allowed. Goaltender Logan Thompson may compete for rookie of the year this season with a 2.01 GAA and .934 save percentage in his eight games played. Montreal has definitely improved from last season and come into tonight’s game with a 5-5-1 record, losing their last two games in Winnipeg on Thursday (3-2 in overtime) and Minnesota (4-1) on Tuesday. The Habs have scored an average of just 2.73 goals per game on an average of 29.1 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.09 goals per game on an average of 32.6 shots allowed per game. Vegas won both games they played against the Canadiens last season, winning 5-2 and 4-3. I love Vegas to keep winning here and will take the Knights in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet on it.
Senators vs. Flyers (7:00)
This game is a stinker on paper to me. The Senators (who are now up for sale) started their season 4-2 but they’ve since lost their last four straight games to drop to 4-6 on the year. The Sens have been good offensively, averaging 3.7 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots per game but they’ve struggled on the back end, allowing an average of 3.6 goals per game on an average 34.3 shots allowed. Newly acquired in the offseason in a trade with Minnesota, Ottawa will start Cam Talbot tonight for the first time with him returning from injury. The Flyers started their year off hot as well under Torts, starting their year 4-1 but with three straight losses coming into today they’ve regressed back to the mean and are now 5-3-2. They’re coming off a 5-2 loss in Toronto on Wednesday after losing 1-0 in overtime in a double shutout in MSG against the Rangers on Tuesday. Philly has struggled offensively, scoring an average of just 2.6 goals per game on an average of only 26.3 shots per game. They’ve allowed an average of 36.7 shots per game but with Carter Hart’s phenomenal play in goal (2.1 GAA, .943 save percentage) they’ve allowed an average of just 2.7 goals per game. Ottawa won two of the three games between these teams last season. I’d slightly lean the Senators win at home and the over here but neither are even close to confident enough picks for me to bet on. No chance I even watch a minute of this game.
Penguins vs. Kraken (7:00)
The Penguins are struggling big time right now. They’re 4-5-2 on the season and on their first six game losing streak since 2020 after blowing leads in the third periods of their last two games. On Wednesday up 3-1 early in the third period in Buffalo, they gave up five unanswered goals in the third period to lose 6-3. That was just a game after they blew a 5-2 lead to lose 6-5 in overtime at home against the Bruins the previous night. The Pens have been good offensively, scoring an average of 3.64 goals per game on an average of 35.8 shots on goal. They’ve struggled defensively, especially on this losing streak, allowing an average of 3.73 goals per game on the season on an average of 35.5 shots allowed. The Kraken are 6-4-2 on the season, coming into this game on a three game win streak. They’re coming off a surprisingly dominant 4-0 shutout win in Minnesota on Thursday (double loser for me). Their offense has been good, averaging 3.5 goals per game on an average of 31 shots per game. Their defense has been pretty good at limiting shots against, allowing an average of just 26.9 shots against but their goaltending hasn’t been great, allowing an average of 3.17 goals per game. On October 29th when these teams played in Seattle, the Kraken won 3-1 in a very close game. Last year they split their two games with a 6-1 Penguins win and 2-1 Kraken win. I’d lean the Penguins get their revenge with a win at home tonight but no way I’m laying the -195 juice on them with the way they’ve played this season. I like the over here, expecting both teams to score and give up their fair share of goals and will take it for half a unit.
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins (7:00)
This game matches up the two teams I hate the most in the NHL. The Leafs got off their four game losing streak on Wednesday night with a much needed 5-2 win against the Flyers. Toronto’s gotten a lock of negative press so far this season which is expected out of a 5-4-2 team that has contender expectations but haven’t gotten out of the first round since 2004. The Leafs have scored and allowed an average of 2.91 goals per game, outshooting their competition by an average of 32.5-28.4. Blow Leafs Blow. The Bruins are the best team in the NHL to start the year under new head coach Jim Montgomery, on a seven game win streak with a 10-1 record. The B’s have been very good on both ends of the ice. They’re very good on both ends of the ice. They’ve scored an average of 4.45 goals per game on an average of 35.8 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.55 goals per game on an average of 30.6 shots given up. Last year the Leafs swept the season series, winning all three games between these Atlantic Division teams all in high scoring games and I think the B’s get their revenge here. I can’t stop betting the Bruins at + money as an underdog and will take Boston for half a unit. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
Capitals vs. Coyotes (7:00)
The Coyotes are the worst team in the NHL this season and after a surprising 3-1 win over Florida on Tuesday, they went back to normal on Thursday, getting blown out 7-2 at home by the Stars. They’re now 3-6-1 on the season. Arizona has scored an average of 2.8 goals per game, generating only 23.1 shots on goal on average. They’ve been horrible defensively allowing an average of 4.3 goals per game on an average of 37.1 shots allowed. The Capitals haven’t been great this season, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak with a 5-5-2 record. They’ve only scored an average of 2.75 goals per game on an average of 27.9 shots per game but they’ve been decent defensively, allowing an average of just 2.83 goals per game on an average of 32.1 shots allowed. Last year the Caps won both their games against the Yotes, shutting them out 2-0 in both games. The Caps should get a win at home over the Yotes to get off their losing streak. No chance in hell I’m laying the astronomical juice on the moneyline at -286 but I’ll take the Caps in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
Flames vs. Devils (10:00)
The Devils have been playing incredible hockey on both ends of the ice this season. They’re on a five game win streak with an 8-3 record on the year. On Thursday night in the best hockey game I’ve watched all season, they came back from down 3-1 in Edmonton going into the third period, with three unanswered third period goals with the tying and game winning goals coming just seven seconds apart in the last 3.5 minutes of the game and outshooting the Oilers 43-37. New Jersey leads in the NHL in shots, scoring chances and high danger opportunities, averaging 3.64 goals per game on an average of 39.5 shots generated per game. Defensively they’ve allowed an average of 2.55 goals per game, allowing just 23.2 shots per game on average. Going into the season the Flames were my pick to win the Stanley Cup but they’re off to a bit of a slow start and are on a three game losing streak, coming into tonight’s game with a 5-4 record. Calgary has both scored and allowed an average of 3.22 goals per game while outshooting the teams they’ve played by an average of 36.9-27.9 shots per game. Last year the Flames won both games they played against the Devils with a 6-3 win and a 5-3 win. This should be a very fun game. I don’t think the Flames should be a -165 favorite in this game but don’t love the idea of betting either side here. The play that I absolutely love on this game though is the Devils team total over 2.5. Way too low of a total and too low of a price. I’ll take it for 1.5 units for my biggest play of the season so far. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Canucks vs. Predators (10:00)
Both of these teams have struggled a lot to start their seasons but are coming off wins on Thursday. The Canucks are 3-6-2 on the season coming off a high scoring 8-5 win at home against the Ducks on Thursday. Vancouver’s offense has been pretty good, averaging 3.45 goals per game on an average of 29.2 shots per game. They’ve struggled a lot on the back end, allowing an average of 4.09 goals per game on an average of 32.8 shots allowed. The Predators got a big 4-1 win in Calgary on Thursday night, just their second win since coming back from their two games in Prague to open the season. Nashville is 4-6-1 on the season and haven’t been great on either end of the ice. They’ve scored an average of 2.73 goals per game on an average of 30.3 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.27 goals per game on an average of 32.2 shots allowed. The Preds won two of the three games these teams played last season. I have zero interest in betting any sides to this game with both of these teams underperforming. I’ll skip it entirely.
Kings vs. Panthers (10:30)
Last year’s President’s Trophy winning Panthers haven’t been great to start this season and have definitely taken a step back from where they were last year. They’re 6-4-1 coming off a 4-3 shootout win in San Jose on Thursday night where they blew a 2-0 third period lead, giving up three straight goals and needing to tie it up to force overtime. This team’s generated a high average of 39.9 shots on goal but that hasn’t translated to as much scoring as you’d expect from a team that lead the NHL by a significant margin in offense a season ago as they’re averaging 3 goals per game this year. They’ve been sloppy defensively, allowing an average of 3.09 goals per game on an average of 28.6 goals per game. The Kings are back home after a 2-1 overtime loss to the Blackhawks on Thursday and a 5-2 loss in Dallas on Tuesday. LA has been decent offensively, averaging 3.31 goals per game on an average of 33 shots per game but they’ve taken a huge step back from where they were defensively last year, allowing an average of 3.77 goals per game on an average of 30.6 shots against. Last year the Kings won both games they played against Florida, beating the Panthers 4-1 and 3-2. I’d lean the Panthers win this game but with how inconsistent they’ve played, I don’t think its worth betting on this game. I’ll stay off it entirely.
Sharks vs. Ducks (10:30)
Both of these California teams are some of the worst in the NHL and they just played each other this past Thursday. In a wildly entertaining 6-5 shootout win for the Ducks, these teams traded goals all night in a very evenly matched game with both teams getting 44 shots on goal. The Sharks are 3-8-2, coming off a 4-3 shootout loss to Florida on Thursday. San Jose came back from down 2-0 going into the third period, scoring three straight but ultimately losing in a shootout after giving up the tying goal with just 1:22 left in regulation. The Sharks have been pretty bad offensively, averaging only 2.46 goals per game on an average of 29.5 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 3.23 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots allowed. In a very high scoring game on Thursday night in Vancouver, the Ducks lost 8-5 to the Canucks to drop to 3-7-1 on the season. Anaheim has been pretty bad on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of just 2.73 goals per game on an average of 29.1 shots per game and they’ve been the worst defensive team in the NHL this season, allowing an astronomical average of 4.64 goals per game on an average of 38.7 shots given up. Last year the Ducks won three of their four games against the Sharks. I expect another entertaining back and forth game tonight. I’d slightly lean San Jose wins this one at home to answer back from the Ducks win on Tuesday but not enough to even consider betting it. I do think a lot of goals get scored though with lousy defense from both teams and I’ll take the over in this game for half a unit.
.5u Islanders ML (-130)
1u Avalanche/Blue Jackets over 6.5 (-130)
.5u Avalanche in regulation (-157)
.5u Avalanche TT over 3.5 (-175)
.5u Jets/Blackhawks under 6.5 (-125)
.5u Lightning/Sabres over 6.5 (-109)
1u Golden Knights in regulation (-127)
.5u Penguins/Kraken over 6.5 (-120)
.5u Bruins ML (+110)
.5u Capitals in regulation (-177)
1.5u Devils TT over 2.5 (-167)
.5u Sharks/Ducks over 6.5 (-120)
Record: 79-72-2 (-13.05 units)
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