Memorial Park Golf Course – Houston, Texas

Coming off hitting my third winner of the swing season last week with Russell Henley, we’re on the second last event of the fall PGA Tour swing season with the Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7432 yards, three Par 5s, five Par 3s, two of the Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field and the other one is 630 yards and should play as a three shot hole for most of the field, three of the Par 3s are long in the 200-235 yards range with the other two way shorter at 155 and 167, the Par 4s have a huge range of different layouts, tree lined fairways but if you don’t miss wildly you could play between the trees, 2.5-3 inch Bermuda rough could be a bit penal between the fairway and the trees, only 19 bunkers on the course and just two water hazards in play on four holes, hitting fairways here is important, higher driving distance here vs. tour average (~291 vs. 283 yards), much lower driving accuracy here vs. tour average (~56% vs. 62), lower GIR percentage vs. tour average (~63% vs. 66%), above average sized Bermuda greens that are firm and severely sloped with crowned edges with small landing areas to have good scoring chances guarded by runoff areas, wind could play a big factor

Tournament Notes

• Much worse field with all the LIV guys that used to play this event gone
• This event used to be a regular season event and was moved to the fall swing season in 2020
• This course has only hosted this event since 2020, so this is only the third year here

Key Stats

Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, SG: ARG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (25.1%)

Field

135 golfers – lousy field strength with Scheffler, Finau and a few solid guys at the top with a sharp drop off 

Last Years Champion (not defending since he went to LIV): Jason Kokrak (-10)

Runner Up Last Year: Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Tway (-8)

Players

Sam Burns: 10700: +1400 – T7 finishes both times here, 7,30,24,19,20 finishes in his last five events, 30th in Approach, 40th in SG: OTT, 114th in Fairways Gained, 25th in Par 3 Scoring, 19th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 29th in Par 4 Scoring, 56th in Proximity 200+ yards, 59th in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 43rd in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdie+ Gained, 36th in Bogie Avoidance

Tony Finau: 10400: +1600 – 1st in my model, MC,24 finishes here the last two years, MC last week in his first event since August, 9,28,5,1,1 finishes in his five events prior to that, 2nd in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 56th in Fairways Gained, 20th in Par 3 Scoring, 38th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 104th in Proximity 200+ yards, 8th in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance

Aaron Wise: 9900: +1800 – T26,T11 finishes here the last two years, 15,6,64,13,15 finishes in his last five events, 17th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 77th in Fairways Gained, 51st in Par 3 Scoring, 99th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 29th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Proximity 200+ yards, 77th in SG: ARG, 12th in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 41st in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogie Avoidance

Brandan Steele: 7200: +ODDS – 5th in my model, first time playing here, 19,40 finishes in his last two events, 4th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 19th in Fairways Gained, 100th in Par 3 Scoring, 33rd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 93rd in SG: ARG, 124th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 43rd in Birdie+ Gained, 55th in Bogie Avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Proximity 200+ yards (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• Slightly smaller card this week with expensive prices on Sam Burns, Tony Finau and Aaron Wise
• I like Scheffler this week but no way you can bet the +500 price here

Bets

Outrights

.72u Sam Burns (+1400)

.64u Tony Finau (+1600)

.56u Aaron Wise (+1800)

.1u Brendan Steele (+10000)

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