Second shitty night in a row yesterday for me on the NHL, going 2-4 to lose 2.08 units. Huge ten game slate tonight with a lot of good matchups to get a solid winning night to bounce back.
Sabres vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
On Tuesday, in what should have been a solid bounce back spot at home for the Sabres against the Coyotes after 5-3 losses to Carolina and Tampa, Buffalo looked flat in a very disappointing game where they trailed for 57 minutes in a lousy 4-1 loss to the Yotes. The Sabres are now on a three game losing streak with a 7-6 record. We’ve been good offensively this season, scoring an average of 3.85 goals per game on an average of 31.8 shots on goal. We haven’t been as great defensively though, allowing and average of 3.23 goals per game on an average of 31.1 shots allowed. The Golden Knights are easily the best team in the Western Conference so far this season with a phenomenal 12-2 record and they’re on an eight game win streak. Tonight they’re on the fifth leg of their East Coast road trip after a 4-3 overtime win against the Leafs on Tuesday. The Knights have been very good on both ends of the ice so far this year. They’re scoring an average of 3.57 goals per game on an average of 33.2 shots on goal. With a new defensive minded coach in Bruce Cassidy this season, VGK has allowed an average of just 2.14 goals per game on an average of 29.9 shots allowed. Logan Thompson, who’s likely to start in goal tonight could be a rookie of the year candidate and has a solid 2.12 GAA, .930 save percentage and two shutouts already this year. Last year when Jack came back to town for the first time after getting traded it didn’t go great for the Golden Knights. Buffalo dominated in a 3-1 win that Jack was definitely bitter about with both Payton Krebs and Alex Tuch scoring for Buffalo. Earlier last season, the Knights beat us 5-2 in Vegas. I think Eichel and his Golden Knights get a win here to keep their dominant win streak going and get their revenge from last year with the frustration of his years wasting away in Buffalo. I’ll bet against my boys here and take Vegas ML for a unit along with half a unit each on the puck line, Eichel over .5 points and over 3.5 shots on goal. I’d lean the over in this game but not enough to bet on it.
Bruins vs. Flames (7:00)
The Bruins are the best team in the East so far this season with an 11-2 record and a perfect 7-0 record at home. On Monday night they made me sweat it out for most of the game but got me my biggest win of the season as they beat the Blues 3-1. The B’s have been fantastic on both ends of the ice. Their offense is averaging 4.08 goals per game on an average of 34.8 shots on goal. Defensively they’ve been great as well, allowing an average of 2.39 goals per game on an average of 30.1 shots allowed. The Flames were my pick to win the Stanley Cup going into the season but they’ve been struggling a lot, coming into tonight’s game on a six game losing streak after starting the year 5-1. They’re on the third leg of an east coast road trip, coming off a 3-2 loss in NJ on Thursday where they outshot the Devils 35-20. Their offense hasn’t been too bad, scoring an average of 3.08 goals per game on an average of 36.9 shots on goal. Their goaltending has been pretty poor though, allowing an average of 3.33 goals per game on an average of just 28.2 shots allowed. Last season these teams split their two games with a 4-0 shutout win for Calgary and a 4-2 win for Boston. I like the Bruins to keep crushing it against this struggling Flames team and will take them in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
Hurricanes vs. Oilers (7:00)
The Hurricanes have been a pretty good team, coming into tonight’s game with an 8-4-1 record off two straight losses. They’re on the second half of a back to back after a 3-0 shutout loss in Florida last night where even though the Canes had 40 shots on goal last night and generated 4.39 expected goals but shut out by Spencer Knight. Carolina has both scored and allowed an average of 2.85 goals per game on the season, outshooting their opponents by a significant margin, an average of 37.2-26.5. With Freddy Andersen out with injury and Anti Raanta playing last night, Carolina is projected to start third string goalie Pyotr Kochetkov, who played a few games last season and was fine but that’s a very limited sample size. The Oilers, who were in Tampa on Tuesday night, got off a three game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Lightning (double loser for me on the Bolts and the over). They’re now 8-6 on the season. Edmonton’s offense, who has the best player in the NHL in Connor McDavid, leading the league with 29 points (14 goals, 15 assists), has been awesome, averaging 3.79 goals per game on an average of 32.8 shots per game. The Oilers now lost Evander Kane for a few months, their third best player who suffered a scary wrist injury earlier this week. Defensively the Oilers have been pretty bad. They’re allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game on an average of 34.6 shots allowed with terrible play in goal from Jack Campbell, who’s confirmed in goal tonight. Campbell’s sucked with a 3.93 GAA and .884 save percentage in his nine starts this season. So basically, Edmonton has to outscore their defensive and goaltending problems if they want to win. These teams already played once this season with a 6-4 Oilers win at home on October 20th with Carolina outshooting Edmonton 40-30 in a game that saw four second period goals and five in the third period. The Hurricanes won both games between these teams last season, winning 3-1 and 2-1. I’d slightly lean the Oilers and the over in this game but there’s too many question marks to this game for me, so I’ll just stay off it entirely.
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers (7:00)
The Blue Jackets return home tonight from Finland after losing both their games there against the Avs last week. This Columbus team blows with a 3-9 record, coming into tonight’s game on a five game losing streak. They’ve struggled on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of 2.5 goals per game on an average of 3.07 shots per game and they’ve been the worst defensive teams in the NHL, allowing an average of 4.58 goals per game on an average of 35.5 shots allowed. The Flyers are outperforming my expectations this season as Torts is getting more out of his guys than I thought he would. They come into tonight’s game with a 7-3-2 record and have two wins in a row after a big 5-1 win against the struggling Blues on Tuesday. They’ve scored an average of 2.75 goals per game on an average of 27.2 shots per game. On the back end, they’ve allowed an average of just 2.42 goals per game on an average of 35.8 shots they’ve given up. Carter Hart is stealing games for Philly, playing absolutely incredible between the pipes with a 1.97 GAA and .946 save percentage and he’s yet to lose in regulation with a 6-0-2 record this season. He’s likely to start in goal tonight. Last year the Blue Jackets won two of their three games against the Flyers. I’d lean Carter Hart single handedly steals this game away and would lean Philly gets a win on the road here but not nearly enough to bet on them in what I expect to be a pretty shitty game. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet it against Hart.
Red Wings vs. Rangers (7:00)
The Rangers come into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak after a 4-3 loss to their rival Islanders at home on Tuesday, dropping them to 6-4-3 on the season. The Rags have been a pretty mid tier team, which is a bit disappointing considering their run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season. They’ve taken a step back on both ends of the ice. Their offense has averaged 2.79 goals per game on an average of 35 shots on goal per game. Defensively they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 29.3 shots allowed, despite having last year’s Vezina in Igor Shesterkin in goal. The Red Wings have improved a ton in the offseason, coming into tonight’s game with a 7-3-3 record and a 5-1-2 home record. They’re coming off a 3-2 shootout loss against the Habs on Tuesday. They’ve scored an average of 3 goals per game on the season on an average of 29.9 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.85 goals per game on an average of 33.6 shots allowed. What does worry me a bit is that they’re projected to start backup Alex Nedeljkovic in goal tonight who has a lousy 4.34 GAA and .880 save percentage, so I’m hoping Ville Husso gets a late start. These teams just played in MSG on Sunday with a 3-2 overtime win for the Red Wings on a power play goal from Dominik Kubalik, coming back from down 2-0 in the first period. Last year the Rags won two of the three games between these original six teams. I’d lean the Rangers win here on the road but not enough to bet on it. I like the under though and will take the alternate under 6 for half a unit, even with Nedeljkovic projected to start.
Devils vs. Senators (7:00)
The Devils have been incredible so far this season. They’re 10-3 and come into tonight’s game on a fantastic seven game win streak after a 3-2 win against the Flames on Tuesday. Their offense has been very good, leading the NHL in high danger scoring chances and expected goal share, scoring an average of 3.62 goals per game on a high average of 37.6 shots per game. They’ve been good defensively (although their goaltending hasn’t been great), allowing an average of 2.54 goals per game on an average of only 24.6 shots allowed per game. This is a sneaky VERY good team. The Senators on the other hand have been pretty lousy, coming into tonight’s game on a six game losing streak to drop to 4-8 on the season. They’ve been fine offensively, averaging 3.5 goals per game on an average of 32.8 shots per game. Defensively they’ve been pretty bad, allowing an average of 3.67 goals per game on an average of 33.3 shots allowed per game. Anton Forsberg is confirmed in goal for Ottawa tonight, with a 3-6 record, 3.58 GAA and .898 save percentage. The Senators won all three games between these teams last season, but I don’t see that happening this year with the talent discrepancy this year between Ottawa and the Devils. I love New Jersey to stay hot in this game and beat up on the struggling Sens. The moneyline is a bit expensive for me to load up on (but still definitely bettable if you want at -190) so I’ll go with 1.5 units on the Devils in regulation and half a unit on the Devils TT over 3.5 along with half a unit on the over.
Islanders vs. Coyotes (7:30)
The Islanders have been very good as of late. They’re 9-5 on the season with a 5-2 record at home. They are coming off a 4-3 win against their rival Rangers in MSG on Tuesday night with just one loss in their last eight games. The Isles have been good on both ends of the ice this season. They are averaging 3.5 goals per game on an average of 31.8 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 2.57 goals per game on an average of 33 shots allowed per game. Ilya Sorokin, confirmed in goal tonight for the Isles has been one of the best goalies in the NHL with a 2.2 GAA, .933 save percentage and a shutout in his nine starts this year. The Coyotes are a lottery team and although they’re 5-6-1 on the season, they’re playing horrible hockey even in their wins, where they’re pretty much just getting lucky bounces to lead to their wins. On Tuesday they were in Buffalo and despite getting outshot 33-24 and out chanced through the game, the Yotes came away with a 4-1 win, their third win in their last four games. Arizona has had the fewest expected goal share and fewest high danger scoring opportunities in the NHL this season, but they’re averaging 2.92 goals per game on an average of only 23.4 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 3.83 goals per game on an average of 36.7 shots they’ve given up. Last year the Isles won both games they played against the Yotes, shutting them out both times with a 3-0 win and 4-0 win. The Islanders should smoke the Coyotes tonight pretty easily. I can’t bet the expensive moneyline here at -278 but I’ll take the Isles in regulation for two units. I’ll also take a small shot on the Isles to win in a shutout for a small .4 unit shot at +700.
Blues vs. Sharks (8:00)
This is an interesting matchup between two teams both playing pretty bad hockey, both falling a ton from their Western Conference Finals matchup just four years back in 2019 where the Blues beat SJ in six games on their way to lifting Lord Stanley. The Blues after winning their first three games of their season, have since dropped their last eight in a row to fall to 3-8 on the season. They’re not playing particularly well on either end of the ice either. They’re coming home tonight off a 5-1 loss in Philly on Tuesday after a 3-1 loss in Boston the previous night. The Blues have only been able to generate a low average of just 2.09 goals per game on an average of 29.1 shots per game. Defensively they’ve been bad too, allowing an average of 3.91 goals per game on an average of 32.1 shots allowed. The Sharks have gone to shootouts in their last three games, losing all three of those. They’ve played pretty poorly this season with a 3-8-3 record. They’ve struggled on both ends of the ice as well. They’re scoring an average of 2.57 goals per game on an average of 31.1 shots on goal. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 3.29 goals per game on an average of 31.4 shots allowed. St. Louis won all three games between these teams last season, all by at least two goals. I’d lean the Blues finally get off their bad losing streak, but I’m definitely not betting on this game. I’d lean the over as well but not enough to bet it. So I will stay off this game entirely.
Avalanche vs. Predators (9:00)
Tonight’s game is a rematch of the first round playoffs games between these Central Division teams. Daryl Suter was right in his prediction that whatever Wild Card team got matched up with Colorado would be wasting a week with the Avs sweeping the Predators quickly, sending them to the golf courses in just eight days. Still on a bit of a Stanley Cup hangover after lifting Lord Stanley, the Avalanche are 6-4-1 this season. They return from Finland where they easily beat the Blue Jackets twice in those NHL Global Series games. Colorado has scored an average of 3.55 goals per game on an average of 32.9 shots per game, despite a slow start to their scoring for the season. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 2.82 goals per game on an average of 33.5 shots allowed. The Predators haven’t been great this season, starting the year 5-7-1, coming off a 5-1 blowout loss in Seattle on Tuesday. They’ve struggled on both ends of the ice. They’ve averaged just 2.62 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 3.39 goals per game on an average of 32.2 shots given up. Juuse Saros, who I thought could be a Vezina candidate this season is projected to start tonight but hasn’t been great this year with a 3.46 GAA and .892 save percentage through his ten starts. In their four regular season games last season between these Central Division teams, despite the Avs being the much better team, Nashville won three of those four games, with all four games hitting the over. As we know though, the Avs got their revenge in the playoffs with a relatively easy four game sweep, with only one close game with an insane goaltending performance. I’d lean Colorado wins this game but not enough to bet on it at -200, so I’ll stay off a side here. I will take the over though for half a unit.
Kings vs. Blackhawks (10:30)
On Tuesday night, in a grind of a game, the Kings got a 1-0 shutout win against the Wild (my over never stood even close to a chance there) for their second win in a row. LA is 8-6-1 on the season and haven’t done much to impress me. Their offense has been performing fine, an improvement from last season, averaging 3.27 goals per game on an average of 33.2 shots per game. Defensively though, they have taken a large step back from how great they were last year and they’ve allowed an average of 3.53 goal per game on an average of 30.5 shots on goal. The Blackhawks started their season overachieving but have since dropped down a bit to the level that I had expected. Coming off a 4-0 shutout loss in Winnipeg on Saturday, they’re now 5-5-2 with only one win (against the Kings who they play tonight) in their last six games. Chicago’s offense has scored an average of 2.83 goals per game this season on an average of 25.5 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 3.17 goals per game on an average of 34.3 shots allowed. These teams just played a week ago on November 3rd in Chicago with a 2-1 overtime win for the Blackhawks and last year the Kings won two of their three games against Chicago with 5-2 and 4-1 wins along with a 4-3 loss. LA should win this game tonight but I don’t think its worth laying the heavy juice on this one at -265. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet on it so I will just stay off this game entirely and head to bed early.
Game Bets
1u Golden Knights ML (-165)
.5u Golden Knights -1.5 (+155)
.5u Jack Eichel over .5 goals (+125)
.5u Jack Eichel over 3.5 shots (-127)
.5u Bruins in regulation (-125)
.5u Red Wings/Rangers under 6 (-125)
1.5u Devils in regulation (-114)
.5u Devils TT over 3.5 (-129)
.5u Devils/Senators over 6.5 (-110)
2u Islanders in regulation (-167)
.4u Islanders to win in shutout (+700)
.5u Avalanche/Predators over 6.5 (-110)
Record: 96-90-2 (-15.59 units)
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