Came a goal short of sweeping the board on the NHL yesterday, going 3-1 to win 1.48 units. Solid second winning day in a row. Tonight we have just a four game slate. Let’s make it three winning days in a row.
Senators vs. Islanders (5:30)
We kick off today’s slate with an early start time at 5:30 in Ottawa as the Sens take on the Islanders. On Saturday night in Philly, the Senators finally got off their seven game losing streak with a 4-1 win against the Flyers. That now puts them at 5-8-1 on the season. The Sens have been pretty good offensively, but they’ve struggled on the back end, both scoring and allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game while getting outshot by an average of 32.1-34.1. The Islanders needed overtime on Saturday (loss for me on the regulation bet) to beat the Blue Jackets 4-3 on a Zach Parise game winner in a game where they outshot Columbus 46-29. The Isles are now 10-6 with three wins in their last four games. They’ve been good on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of 3.31 goals per game on an average of 32.2 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of just 2.56 goals per game on an average of 32.4 shots allowed. Ilya Sorokin has been sensational in goal with a 2.17 GAA, .932 save percentage and a shutout this season. The Isles swept all three games between these teams all by multiple goals with a 3-0 shutout, a 4-1 win and a 5-3 win. I’d expect them to win here today on the road and I’ll take the Islanders for a unit at a much cheaper price than I expected along with half a unit on the puck line. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Flames vs. Kings (8:30)
Calgary got off their seven game losing streak on Saturday with a 3-2 win at home against the Jets. They’re now 6-6-2 after struggling through that stretch of hockey. The Flames haven’t been able to generate much scoring, averaging 2.93 goals per game on an average of 36.4 shots per game. Defensively they’ve been underperforming as well, allowing an average of 3.21 goals per game on an average of 27.8 shots allowed. The Kings have been a pretty decent team, coming into tonight’s game on a four game win streak with a 10-6-1 record after a 4-3 win at home against the Red Wings on Saturday. They’ve improved offensively in the offseason but declined defensively. They’re scoring an average of 3.24 goals per game on an average of 32.6 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.35 goals per game on an average of 30 shots per game. In the three games between these Pacific Division playoff teams last year, Calgary won two of the three with each game determined by a 3-2 score. I’d slightly lean the Flames and the over in this game but not enough to bet on either of them, so I will just pass on this game entirely.
Blackhawks vs. Hurricanes (8:30)
This is a pretty big mismatch tonight between the Canes and Blackhawks. The Hurricanes are 9-5-1 on the season, coming off a 4-1 loss in Colorado on Saturday and only have one in their last four games. They’ve scored an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 36.1 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.87 goals per game on an average of 26.3 shots allowed. The Blackhawks started their season better than I had expected but they’ve since come down to earth. Coming off a 3-2 win against the Ducks on Saturday in Anaheim for just their second win in their last eight games, they’re now 6-5-3 on the season. On the season, they’ve scored an average of 2.71 goals per game on an average of just 25.7 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 34.9 shots given up per game. Last year Carolina won both games between these cross conference teams, winning 6-3 and 4-3. I’d expect them to get a win on the road but the moneyline at -230 is too expensive so I’ll go with the Canes in regulation for a unit.
Avalanche vs. Blues (9:00)
After a bit of a slow start to the season with a Stanley Cup winning hangover, the Avs are on a roll now. They’ve won their last four games in a row, most recently beating the Hurricanes 4-1 at home on Saturday. Colorado is now 8-4-1 on the season with a 4-1-1 home record. Their offense has been good, scoring an average of 3.69 goals per game on an average of 32.7 shots per game. Defensively they’ve allowed an average of 2.69 goals per game on an average of 32.9 shots allowed. The Blues have won their last two games, beating the Sharks on Thursday to end their eight game losing streak and then they got a surprising 3-2 win in Vegas on Saturday. St. Louis has struggled on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging just 2.38 goals per game on an average of 29.3 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.69 goals per game on an average of 32.2 shots allowed. Jordan Binnington’s been pretty bad in net with a 3.19 GAA and .895 save percentage and he’s projected to start in goal tonight. Tonight’s game will be a rematch of what was easily the best series that the Avs had to face last year on their way to winning Lord Stanley. It took Colorado six games to beat the Blues with some lucky breaks going their way. The Avs won two of the three games these teams played in the regular season with all three games going over. I like the Avalanche to win at home tonight and will take them in regulation for half a unit. I don’t mind the moneyline, but would rather save the juice on regulation only. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
1u Islanders ML (-122)
.5u Islanders -1.5 (+205)
1u Hurricanes in regulation (-139)
.5u Avalanche in regulation (-121)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
Record: 109-101-2 (-19.27 units)
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