Huge night yesterday going 3-1 on the small slate to win 2.42 units, my third winning NHL day in a row! Tonight we have a pretty good nine game slate. Let’s get a four day win streak!
Sabres vs. Canucks (7:00)
The Sabres are on a five game losing streak, dropping to under .500 with a 7-8 record on the season after a 3-1 loss at home against the Eastern Conference leading Bruins on Saturday. They played relatively well and hung around with the B’s all game, which was good to see for a team that’s still a few years out from being a contender. Despite being on a five game losing streak, they’ve played good hockey. Through their last ten games the Sabres are ninth in expected goal share and losing on their goaltending, which has been dead last in the NHL over that ten game span. Buffalo’s offense has been quite good this season, scoring an average of 3.67 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots per game but we’ve struggled on the back end, allowing an average of 3.47 goals per game on an average of 31.3 shots per game. This should be a good spot for them to get right at home against a lousy Canucks team. Vancouver is 4-9-3 on the season and have played horrible hockey, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak after a 5-2 loss in Boston on Sunday. They’ve struggled on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring a decent average of 3.31 goals per game on an average of 30.4 shots per game but they’re 26th in expected goal share in the NHL in their last ten game. Defensively they’ve been terrible with bad goaltending from Thatcher Demko who has a 4.02 GAA and .874 save percentage with only one win in his eleven starts. They’re 26th in expected goals against over their last ten games and on the season have allowed an average of 4.06 goals per game on an average of 32.9 shots per game. These teams already played their game in Vancouver this season with a dominant 5-1 Sabres win on November 15th. Last year the Sabres also won both games these teams played with 5-2 and 3-2 wins. I like my boys to end their losing streak with a home win tonight. I’ll go with a unit on the Sabres ML and half a unit on the puck line. Let’s Go Buffalo!!
Panthers vs. Capitals (7:00)
Both of these teams are coming off losses and neither have impressed me a whole lot. I feel like they’re both mid tier teams that with likely be bubble teams fighting for Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference. Florida’s 8-6-1 on the season after a 4-2 loss to the Oilers on Saturday night and they’re now 4-1-1 at home this year. The Panthers have scored an average of 3.13 goals per game on a very high average of 40.3 shots per game. Defensively they’ve allowed an average of 3.07 goals per game on an average of 30.7 shots allowed. The Capitals are 7-8-2 coming off a 6-3 loss to the Lightning on Sunday (easy win for me) and they’ve suffered the most injuries of any team in the league this season. They’re averaging 2.88 goals per game on an average of 27.8 shots and they’ve allowed an average of 2.06 goals per game on an average of 31.3 shots allowed. Last year these teams met in the first round of the playoffs with a six game victory for Florida with every game having at least five goals. In the regular season, Florida won two of their three games, winning both 5-4 with a 4-3 Caps win in the other game. I’d lean the Panthers win tonight at home and would lean the over but not enough to bet on either, so I will just lay off this game tonight entirely.
Canadiens vs. Devils (7:00)
The Devils are on a warpath, playing some of the best hockey in the NHL this season, coming into tonight’s game on a nine game win streak with a 12-3 record. They’re statistically one of the best teams in hockey, scoring an average of 3.67 goals per game on an average of 37.1 shots on goal, leading the NHL in expected goal share and high danger scoring chances. Defensively they’ve been quite good as well, even without spectacular goaltending and they’re allowing an average of just 2.53 goals per game on an average of 24.4 shots allowed. The Habs are much improved from last season at 8-6-1, coming into tonight’s game on a three game win streak after a 5-4 overtime win against Pittsburgh on Saturday. They’ve been good offensively but struggling a bit on the back end, scoring an average of 3.07 goals per game on an average of 30.3 shots per game and allowing an average of 3.2 goals per game on an average of 33.4 shots per game allowed. Last year New Jersey won two of their three games. I’d expect them to get a win again tonight and will take the Devils for half a unit.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
These teams just played this past Friday night for the first time this season with the Penguins getting a 4-2 win on the road in Toronto in a close game where they got outshot 30-23. The Pens are now 6-6-3, coming off a 5-4 overtime loss in Montreal on Saturday after they got off a long seven game losing streak with their wins against the Caps and Leafs last week. Pittsburgh has been good offensively, with their veteran lead offense scoring an average of 3.6 goals per game on an average of 33.7 shots per game but they’ve struggled big time on the back end, allowing an average of 3.47 goals per game on an average of 34.3 shots per game. The Leafs bounced back from losing to Vegas and Pittsburgh with a 3-2 win on Saturday against the Canucks to move to 8-5-3 on the season. Toronto hasn’t been all that impressive, especially with their offseason hype (which has been the case for like the past five years, none of which they’ve gotten out of the first round). They’ve scored an average of just 2.81 goals per game on an average of 31.4 shots per game. Defensively they’ve been fine, allowing an average of 2.75 goals per game on an average of 27.2 shots allowed. Last year the Pens won two of their three games against the Leafs, beating them in a 7-1 blowout and 2-0 shutout and losing 4-1 in the other game. I’d lean Toronto gets their revenge with a win here and would slightly lean the under, but neither I’m confident enough to bet on, so I will just lay off this game.
Lightning vs. Stars (7:00)
This is a fun matchup between two pretty decent teams. The Lightning bounced back from getting blown out 5-1 on the road to the Capitals on Friday with a 6-3 revenge win at home against them on Sunday in the second half of their home and home. The three time reigning Eastern Conference champions haven’t been too consistent to start their season, coming into tonight with an 8-6-1 record. Tampa’s been good on offense, averaging 3.27 goals per game on an average of 31.3 shots per game but they’ve struggled a bit defensively from what we’ve come to expect from a team that has Vasy in goal, as they’ve allowed an average of 3.2 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots allowed. The Lightning are giving Vasilevskiy the night off and will be starting Brian Elliot (3.27 GAA, .895 save percentage) tonight, who I don’t have a whole lot of trust in. The Stars are coming off a big 5-1 win in Philly on Saturday (sweat free winner for me) to bounce back from losing to San Jose and Winnipeg. Dallas comes into tonight’s game with a 9-5-1 record, playing really solid hockey so far this season. They are scoring an average of 3.73 goals per game on an average of 30.3 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of just 2.53 goals per game on an average of 30.7 shots per game given up. These cross conference teams who met in the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals in the bubble split their two games last season with a 3-1 Lightning win and a 1-0 shutout win for the Stars. With Elliot starting for the Bolts, I’d lean the Stars get a win on the road here and would also lean the over, but don’t like either bet enough to bet it.
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers (7:30)
The Blue Jackets have been one of the worst teams in the NHL so far this season with a 4-9-1 record on the year. They’re coming off a 4-3 overtime loss on Long Island (loss for me since I had the Isles to win in regulation) on Saturday and they’ve only won one game in their last seven games, which came against the Flyers who they’ll face again tonight. Columbus is likely going to get even worse with Zach Werenski, Patrik Laine, Jakub Voracek and Kent Johnson all getting put on the IR over last few days. The Jackets have scored an average of 2.71 goals per game on an average of 30.4 shots per game and ranked 29th in the NHL in high danger chances this year and especially without Laine, they’re not a big threat to score. Defensively they’ve been the second worst team in the league, allowing an average of 4.36 goals per game on an average of 36.1 shots allowed. The Flyers come into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak after a 5-1 blowout loss at home to the Stars on Sunday (easy winner for me). They started their season hot under Torts but with just two wins in their last eight games, they’re now 7-6-2 on the season. Philly’s offense has pretty much been just as pathetic as they were last year, scoring an average of just 2.47 goals per game on an average of 29.1 shots per game. Carter Hart is stealing wins for them and they’ve allowed an average of 2.87 goals per game on an average of 34.4 shots per game. Carter Hart has been spectacular in goal with a 2.18 GAA and .937 save percentage. He leads the league in goals saved above expectation and is projected to start tonight. When these teams played last Thursday in Columbus, the Blue Jackets got out to a 3-0 lead early in the second period and rode that out to a 5-2 win at home while getting outshot 34-29. Last year the Jackets won two of their three games against Philly. I like Hart to perform well against a pretty incompetent Blue Jackets offense here and get his Flyers a win tonight in this Metro Division matchup and will take them for half a unit.
Predators vs. Wild (8:00)
Both of these teams haven’t played to the expectations that I had of them going into the season. The Preds are 6-8-1 on the season, winning three of their last five games after just getting one win in their eight games prior. They’re coming off a 2-1 win at home against the Rangers in a goaltending battle on Saturday in a game where they got outshot 35-18 and Juuse Saros showed us the top tier goaltending I thought would make him a Vezina candidate this season. Nashville has struggled quite a bit on both ends of the ice. They’ve scored an average of only 2.6 goals per game on an average of 29.4 shots per game and even with Saros in goal, they’ve allowed an average of 3.33 goals per game on an average of 32.6 shots allowed. Minnesota is 7-6-2 on the season, coming off a 3-2 shootout loss against the Sharks on Sunday (glad I stayed off that game) where they blew a 2-0 lead with just over six minutes left in regulation. The Wild have struggled on both ends of the ice as well. Their offense, which was one of the best in the NHL last season has only averaged 2.73 goals per game on an average of 31.7 shots per game. Defensively, even with former Vezina winner Marc Andre Fleury in goal, they’ve allowed an average of 2.93 goals per game on an average of 31.2 shots allowed this season. Last year Nashville won three of their four games against the Wild with all four of those games being high scoring matchups that easily hit the overs. I’d slightly lean Minnesota and the over in this matchup but not enough to bet on it tonight.
Ducks vs. Red Wings (10:00)
The Ducks have been horrible this season, one of the worst teams in the NHL with a 4-10-1 record, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak off a 3-2 loss at home to the Blackhawks on Saturday. They just have one win in their last five games with that win coming in a shootout against their lousy rival Sharks. Anaheim’s offense has scored an average of only 2.67 goals per game on an average of 30.2 shots per game and the Ducks have allowed the most goals in the NHL, an average of 4.47 goals per game on an average of 39.1 shots allowed. The Red Wings are on a three game losing streak as well but they’ve improved from last year, coming into tonight’s game with a 7-5-3 record after a 4-3 loss in LA on Saturday. They’ve scored an average of 2.93 goals per game on an average of 28.7 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.27 goals per game on an average of 32.7 shots per game. These cross conference teams played their first game of the year against each other in Detroit on October 23rd with a dominant 5-1 blowout win for the Red Wings and last year they split their two games, both decided by a goal. I like the value here on Detroit and will take the Red Wings to get a win on the road tonight for half a unit against a very weak Ducks team.
Golden Knights vs. Sharks (10:00)
The Vegas Golden Knights have been incredible to start their season with a 13-3 record. Their nine game win streak came to an end on Saturday with a 3-2 loss to the Blues at home in a game where they outshot St. Louis 36-28. The Knights have been incredible on both ends of the ice this year. They’re scoring a third most in the NHL average of 3.69 goals per game on an average of 33.6 shots per game and they’ve allowed the second fewest, an average of just 2.31 goals per game on an average of 30.1 shots per game. Logan Thompson could be a rookie of the year candidate this year with his 2.32 GAA, .925 save percentage and two shutouts in his ten starts in goal this season. They biggest rival Sharks on the other hand have been horrendous. They’re 5-9-3 on the season but have surprisingly won their last two games in a row, coming off a 3-2 shootout win in Minnesota where they came back from down 2-0 with just over six minutes left in regulation on Sunday. San Jose has struggled on both ends of the ice this year. They’re scoring an average of 2.71 goals per game on an average of 30.6 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.35 goals per game on an average of 31.3 shots per game allowed. These Pacific Division teams played on October 25th in San Jose with the Golden Knights winning 4-2 with a three goal third period. Last year the Knights went 2-0-1 in their three games. I love Vegas to get a win here with a vengeance after their loss on Saturday and having this game against their biggest rival in their short six year franchise history makes me like it even better. The moneyline is too pricey at -265, but I’ll take the Knights in regulation for 2 units along with half a unit on the Vegas team total over 3.5.
1u Sabres ML (-110)
.5u Sabres -1.5 (+220)
.5u Devils ML (-190)
.5u Flyers ML (-110)
.5u Red Wings ML (-110)
2u Golden Knights in regulation (-155)
.5u Golden Knights TT over 3.5 (-137)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
Record: 112-102-2 (-16.85 units)
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