Last week the PGA Tour kicked off with a fun Sentry TOC in Hawaii. They remain in Hawaii this week for the Sony Open at Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu for the first full field event of the year!
Course Breakdown
7044 yd. Par 70, resort course, winning score should be around -20, lowest driving accuracy course on tour (~53% vs. tour average ~625) but isn’t really a huge factor here at all, guys could still go real low with crappy driving accuracy because the fairways are very narrow but the rough is not penal at all, slightly higher than average driving distance here (~290 yds vs. tour average ~282) with a lot of rollout, both Par 5s can easily be eagle’d by all which are the 2 easiest Par 5s on tour, 4th most eagles here of every course on tour despite only having 2 Par 5s, all Par 3s under 200 yds, off the tee golfers will see tree lined fairways that are firm, flat and fast, rough isn’t very high but could get thick and gnarly to hit out of with bad lies, bunkers on a few fairways and water is in play on 2 holes, average to above average sized, firm and flat Bermuda greens that are well protected by deep bunkers and the rough around the greens is a lot tougher than off the fairways, wind could play a big factor but as long as the wind is down its a birdiefest
Tournament Notes
- First event of the 2023 One and Done season!
- First full field event of the year with a cut (Top 65 and ties)
- 8 of the past 9 winners (17 of last 24) played at the Tournament of Champions the wwek before (Cam Smith and Russell Henley were the only ones, Henley was also the 1st player since the 1970 to win their first time there), but their results at the TOC seem to not matter at all (Na and Kuchar sucked at TOC the year’s they won here)
- The last twelve winners here had a T15 in one of their last 3 starts before this tourney
- Prior to Cam Smith in 2020 and Kevin Na in 2021, the last 9 winners prior to that had a T6 in one of their last 3 starts before this tourney
- Course history here correlates with yearly success here only second-most on tour behind Augusta, guys that play well here continue to succeed
- 25 of the last 27 winners have played in at least two previous Sony Opens
- 19 of the last 20 winners here have had at least one previous PGA Tour win
- 9 of the last 11 winners ranked inside the top-50 on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting in the season leading up to their win
- The four golfers that fit those three above trends and played last week for this year are: Billy Horschel, Mackenzie Hughes, J.T. Poston, and Adam Scott
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 scoring, Birdie+ Gained, Good Drives Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds (25.4%), 175-200 yds (23.4%)
Corollary Courses
- El Camaleon Golf Club (Mayakoba Golf Classic) – two of the last five winners, Matt Kuchar and Patton Kizzire won these two tournaments back to back, Mayakoba in the fall and then Sony the same season
- Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions)
Field
139 golfers – weak field strength with some really good talent at the top
Defending Champion: Hideki Matsuyama (-23, in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Russell Henley (-23)
One and Done: Tom Kim
One and Done Considerations: Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman
Players
Tom Kim: 10500: +1150 – First time playing this event, 5th last week at Sentry, 11,25,1,54,13,1,7 finishes in his eight events prior to that, 1st in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 5th in Good Drives, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Proximity 150-175 yds, 28th in Proximity 175-200 yds, 27th in SG: ARG, 23rd in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, typically this is a too low of a price for me to bet on for an outright but I really like him this week (as does the rest of the golf dfs/betting world), so I will take a shot on him, first in my model
Tom Hoge: 9900: +2000 – MC,MC,12,MC,3 finishes his last five times here, 3rd last week at Sentry, MC,MC,13,9,4,12,10 finishes in his seven events prior to that, 2nd in Approach, 69th in SG: OTT, 8th in Good Drives, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 32nd in Proximity 150-175 yds, 7th in Proximity 175-200 yds, 113th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdie+ Gained
Brian Harman: 9700: +2500 – Has played this event every year since 2012 and has only MC’d twice with 48,56,32,MC,4 finishes the last five years, 16th at Sentry last week, 2,2,23,15,21,35,3 finishes in this seven events prior to that, 9th in Approach, 44th in SG: OTT, 25th in Good Drives, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 24th in Proximity 150-175 yds, 52nd in Proximity 175-200 yds, 15th in SG: ARG, 78th in Putting, 33rd in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained
Corey Connors: 9600: +2800 – Has gained strokes putting here multiple times in his career and has never lost putting strokes here (typically he does on most weeks), really good course history here with 11,23,3,39 finished here, finished 18th at Sentry last week with 23,25,MC,26,5 finishes in his five events prior to it, 3rd in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Good Drives, 20th in Par 4 scoring, 100th in Proximity 150-175 yds, 12th in Proximity 175-200 yds, 91st in SG: ARG, 93rd in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 38th in Birdie+ Gained
Billy Horschel: 9500: +3500 – 36,7,68,54,MC finishes here going back to 2010, finished 30th at Sentry last week, 56,7,21,35 finishes in his four prior events, 26th in Approach, 96th in SG: OTT, 46th in Good Drives, 38th in Par 4 scoring, 115th in Proximity 150-175 yds, 27th in Proximity 175-200 yds, 11th in SG: ARG, 40th in Putting, 53rd in Opportunities Gained, 95th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 4 scoring (15%)
Proximity 150-175 yds (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yds (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- On DraftKings showdown slates, guys that start on the front 9 have an easier chance at getting 3+ birdie streaks, giving a slight edge
- Pretty big card since I’m targeting guys all in the lower odds ranges, so bigger risk on this week vs. a normal week, since there’s a sharp drop off from the top of the field
Bets
Outrights
.88u Tom Kim (+1150)
.5u Brian Harman (+2000)
.4u Corey Conners (+2500)
.36u Tom Hoge (+2800)
.3u Billy Horschel (+3500)
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