Last week I hit my first winner of the season with Max Homa cashing in at the Farmers Insurance Open. This week we have the worst event of the PGA Tour season, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at one of the nicest courses on tour.

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Course Breakdown

Pebble Beach Golf Links (All Rounds): 6972 yd. Par 72,  fairways aren’t as wide and rough is a little thicker than usual already because the USGA is already starting to get it ready for the US Open, smallest greens on the PGA Tour, 2 Par 5s are reachable by all golfers, 1 will barely be reachable by any golfer, 1 reachable for long hitters, Par 4s here are a lot shorter than average with six Par 4s under 400 yds, course hugs the cost line which makes it very hard if wind picks up, wind strongly effects how difficult this course plays, above average size fairways with bunkers guarding the landing zones, guys club down here and use less than driver on a lot of holes, annually the course with short average drive on Tour (264 yds vs. 283 yds average) and fewest amount of drives over 300 yds (8.96%), rough isn’t very penal since it is playable to the shitty amateurs in the Pro Am, out of bounds comes into play on almost half the holes, very small POA greens (half size of tour average and smallest greens on the PGA Tour) that have the lowest putts made % on tour (second lowest 5-10 feet, lowest 10-15 feet), lots of bunkers and false fronts around the greens

Spyglass Hill Golf Course (Rounds 1-2): 7050 yd. Par 72, has played more difficult than Pebble 9 of the last 12 years, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and 17 is a reachable Par 4, lot of trees on this course so wind could be less of a factor but it’s a harder course, average sized fairways with just a few bunkers, lot of trees and some water if golfers miss the fairway, slightly larger POA greens than Pebble but with a lot more slope and undulation

Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Rounds 1-3): 6958 yd. Par 71, 5 Par 3s, 4 Par 5s (used to be a Par 72), easiest course of the 3 with above average sized fairways and the largest POA greens, highest hit fairways of any course on PGA Tour (~75%), bunkers and sand dunes in play, wind effects this course less than the other two

Tournament Notes

• Cut is Top 60 and ties (not the usual 65) after 54 holes (not the usual 36)
• This tournament is the worst to watch on TV all season because of the stupid Pro-Am with rounds taking 6+ hours and the annoying celebrities with their shitty golf shots being featured more than the PGA players
• Weather is a big factor here, in good weather these are all easy courses but in bad weather they get very difficult so lot of variability in this tournament
• Course history is very important for this event since its so different with it taking so long with all the celebrities and ridiculous rounds, it takes a different toll to deal with that on a weekly basis
• A lot of variety in winners here with a lot of winners outside the Top 100 and not many in the Top 20, but favorites do have success here
• Americans win here (not Euros, only 3 non-Americans have won in the last like 50 years)
• No one has won here for the first time here since the 1950s
• The leader or co-leader after 54 holes, has gone on to win 12 times since 2000 including 8 of the past 10 years (Phil was 3 back from Casey in 2019)
• In 2021, besides Paul Casey, the other six players that finished T5 were all American and only 3 of the 11 that finished T10 here were not American (and only 6 of the T25)
• 12 of the last 14 winners here played at least 3 events in January and February prior to playing here (Vaughn Taylor and Phil are the only ones not to)
• Ted Potter, Phil (in 2012), Vaughn Taylor and Nick Taylor are the only 4 winners the last 13 years that didn’t have a T15 in one of their 3 prior events that calendar year
• Including US Opens, every winner at Pebble Beach since 2000 has a T16 or better in one or more of their previous three starts here

Key Stats

Approach (4x more impactful here than SG: OTT), SG: ARG, Par 4 Scoring, GIR

Main proximity distance range on approach (Pebble Beach): 100-125 yds (22.2%), 200+ yds (21.4%)

Field

156 golfers – easily the worst field strength of the year

Defending Champion: Tom Hoge (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Jordan Spieth (-17)

One and Done: Jordan Spieth

One and Done Considerations: Spieth, Hoge

Players

Jordan Spieth: 10600: +1200 – Doesn’t look good in my model but I’m playing him anyway with the elite course history, has never missed a cut here, only one finish outside T20 here in the last five years, three top 10 finishes in the last three years and two top 3 finishes the last two years, former winner here in 2017, runner up last year after choking away the win, 2,3,9,45,20,1,21,6,4,22 finishes here, at Sony a few weeks ago he was the first round leader and then missed the cut, MC,13,52,13,19,MC,8,10 finishes in his last eight events, 77th in Approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 115th in Par 3 scoring, 73rd in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 79th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 30th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 136th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 131st in Proximity 200+ yards, 18th in SG: ARG, 69th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 55 in GIR Gained

Tom Hoge: 10000: +2500 – Defending champ with 1,12,60,MC,MC,39,41,MC finishes here, 32,41,3,MC,MC,13,9,4,12,10 finishes in his last ten events, 1st in Approach, 65th in SG: OTT, 32nd in Par 3 scoring, 34th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 36th in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in Proximity 100-125 yards, 4th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 134th in SG: ARG, 31st in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, 19th in GIR Gained

Ben Griffin: 8600: +6000 – First in my model this week, first time playing this event, 31,32,12,29,16,59,3 finishes in his last seven events, 9th in Approach, 39th in SG: OTT, 43rd in Par 3 scoring, 8th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 4th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 19th in Par 5 scoring, 11th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 13th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 14th in Proximity 200+ yards, 62nd in SG: ARG, 23rd in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 18th in GIR Gained

Callum Tarren: 7200: +9000 – MC here last year, 25,MC,2,26 finishes in his last four events, 11th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 37th in Par 3 scoring, 3rd in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards, 10th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 93rd in Par 5 scoring, 29th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 120th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 51st in Proximity 200+ yards, 36th in SG: ARG, 36th in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Birdie+ Gained, 40th in GIR Gained

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Par 3 scoring (5%)

Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards (5%) 

Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (5%)

Par 5 scoring (5%)

Proximity 100-125 yards (10%)

Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)

Proximity 200+ yards (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

GIR Gained (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• No TV cameras or ShotLink data on Spyglass and Monterey, which could lead to nice live betting opportunities
• Dial back exposure a bit on this tournament cause its a fucking joke because of the Pro-Am format
• Stack Monterey for Showdown slates on DraftKings
• Stars and scrubs is the best way to build DraftKings lineups for this event
• Smaller card this week for me with this tournament being a joke

Bets

Outrights

.84u Jordan Spieth (+1200)

.4u Tom Hoge (+2500)

.2u Ben Griffin (+6000)

.2u Callum Tarren (+9000)

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