With a star studded field and Tiger Woods making his first start since last July, the PGA Tour goes to the Riviera Country Club in LA this week for the Genesis Invitational.
Course Breakdown
7322 yd. Par 71, plays long since the Par 5s are short and the Par 4s are all very long, 3 Par 5s are the easiest holes on the course which give up around 45% of all birdies on this course (#1 is the easiest hole on the PGA and there is the most eagles here), also a drivable Par 4 (#10), besides the short #10 every Par 4 plays above Par, one of lowest driving accuracy courses (~54% vs. 61% Tour average) but that doesn’t effect things nearly as much as distance or long iron play do, tight fairways, lots of difficult fairway bunkers with huge lips, challenging doglegs especially to the right side (which favors righty’s that hit a fade or most lefty’s who play a draw), tree lined but that shouldn’t effect much if you don’t wildly miss the fairway, spongy kikuya fairways and somewhat thick rough (popular grass in South Africa but only here and at The Farmers in the US) with inconsistent lies depending on where they land in the rough, small and fast POA greens with multi tiered with lots of undulation and slope, guarded by a lot of bunkers and false fronts, one of lowest GIR courses on tour (~58% vs. 66% Tour average), behind Pebble Beach here has hardest greens to hit on tour from within 125 yds. (76%), toughest putting course between 3-5 feet in 5 of the last 9 seasons, in top 3 courses on tour of missed putts within 3 feet, most missed putts on tour within 5 feet, bombers and lefty’s have an advantage (Phil, Bubba)
Tournament Notes
- In 2020, this tournament became a reduced field invitational and Tiger (who’s in the field for the first time in forever this week) became the host
- 70% of the golfers that have finished T3 here in the last eight years have been inside T56 in approach in the year they finished T3
- 80% of the golfers that finished T3 here in the last 16 years have been inside the T55 in SG: T2G in the year they finished T3
- This course hosted the PGA Championship in 2017
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, SG: ARG, Proximity 150-175 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (26.9%), 175-200 yards (22.8%), 200+ yards (23.1%)
Corollary Courses
- Augusta National (The Masters)
- Other than James Hahn in 2015, Max Homa in 2021 and Joaquin Niemann last year, every other golfer that has won here in the last 30 years has finished T22 or better at some point in their career
- 19 of the last 33 winners here have won or come in 2nd at The Masters at some point in their career
- 25 of the last 33 winners here have finished inside the T10 at Augusta all time
- 29 of the last 33 winners here have finished inside the T20 at Augusta all time
- Every lefty thats won the Masters (Bubba, Phil, Mike Weir) has won here multiple times
- Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship) – lot of crossover leaders (including James Hahn, JB Holmes, and Max Homa that won both events)
Field
132 golfers – invitiational strength field with all the best players on the PGA Tour playing this week
Last Year’s Champion: Joaquin Niemann (-19) – not defending since he went to the LIV Tour
Runner Up Last Year: Collin Morikawa, Cam Young (-17)
One and Done: Rory McIlroy
One and Done Considerations: Rory, Finau, Rahm, Cantlay
Players
Rory McIlroy: 10500: +1000 – 1st in my model this week and maps out incredibly for the Riv, 10,MC,5,4,20,20 finishes here, T32,1,4,1,T4,4,T2,1,T8 finishes in his last nine events, 4th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 27th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 1st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 11th in Proximity 200+ yards, 16th in SG: ARG, 43rd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained
Xander Schauffele: 9900: +1600 – He’s been hot lately and I expect him to pick up a win at some point in the next few weeks and just going to keep riding him, 13,15,23,15,9 finishes here, 10,13,3,9,4,3,57,15,1,1 finishes in his last ten event, 3rd in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 38th in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 84th in Proximity 150-175 yards, # in Proximity 175-200 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 48th in SG: ARG, 29th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained
Tony Finau: 9500: +1600 – 2nd in my model, 33,2,51,15,2 finishes here the last five years, 14,9,16,6,1,MC,9,28,5,1,1 finishes in his last eleven events, 8th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 18th in Driving Distance, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 64th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 9th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 101st in Proximity 200+ yards, 17th in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained
Sungjae Im: 9400: +3500 – 33,MC,MC finishes his three times here, great form coming in with 6,4,18,MC,13,34,29,7,2,15,12,2,2 finishes in his last 13 events, 26th in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 70th in Driving Distance, 36th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 25th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 64th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 35th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained
Will Zalatoris: 8700: +4000 – Maps out great for Riviera and think he could pick up a win here with great odds at +4000, 26,15 finishes here as a pro (MC’d here as an amateur), MC,35,11,1,21,20,28,MC,2,5 finishes in his last ten events, 13th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 14th in Driving Distance, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 17th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 82nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 42nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 71st in SG: ARG, 60th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (15%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- With a smaller invitational field, a higher percentage of players will make the cut so being more aggressive in DK lineups is fine
- I have a loaded, expensive card this week. I think an elite golfer wins this week
Bets
Outrights
1u Rory McIlroy (+1000)
.7u Xander Schauffele (+1600)
.7u Tony Finau (+1600)
.3u Sungjae Im (+3500)
.3u Will Zalatoris (+4000)
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