This week we have a completely loaded field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, an elevated event on this year’s PGA Tour schedule at Bay Hill in Orlando.
Course Breakdown
7454 yds, Par 72, plays a bit longer than the yardage, good mix of holes where bombers will have an advantage and others where accuracy will be more of an advantage with a 3 wood or less than driver, all four of the Par 3s are between 200-225 yards, Par 5s are reachable in 2 by a lot of golfers but bombers will obviously have an advantage, easy to hit wide tree lined fairways with strategically placed bunkers on almost every tee shot, 8 water traps that affect 10 of the holes, 84 bunkers, lot of doglegs, thick rough, trimmed rough around hazards which causes more trouble, lot of slopes and undulation on the fairways, guys will have to lay up so average drives are 6 yards shorter than tour average (277 vs. 283 yards) and driving accuracy is 65% vs. tour average of 62%, almost 30% of approach shots come from beyond 200 yards (most of any course on tour, a huge outlier), average GIR, a bit larger than average greens, very difficult course especially when wind picks up which plays a pretty big factor, firm Bermuda greens and fairways, greens are very FAST with slopes and runoff areas especially on the front of the greens, greenside bunkers aren’t too penal, wind highly effects how this course plays and makes it much more difficult
Tournament Notes
- SG Approach is way more influential than ATG and OTT this week (2.7x more than SG: OTT and 4.2x more than SG: ATG, 2x more than SG: OTT and 2.5x more than SG: ATG for T5)
- Putting could be a little more influential here than usual but not enough for me to want to weigh as much as a key stat
- Elevated event with a $20M purse
- 25 of the last 26 winners here had won on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour prior to their win here
- Veterans win here, with 31 of the last 32 winners here having at least 125 previous career PGA Tour or DP World Tour starts
- 12 of the last 16 winners had at least 3 previous career wins
- 25 of the last 27 winners had a T10 previously in an event the season that they won
- 6 of the last 8 winners had a T5 here at some point prior to their win
- All of the last 8 winners had a T17 here at some point prior to their win
- 16 of the last 18 winners here finished T20 here at some point previously in their career
- 16 of the last 18 winners here had played this event at least 3 times prior in their career
- 23 of the last 26 winners here were in the top 40 of the OWGR
- 11 of the last 12 winners here had played the previous season and made the cut (Scottie Scheffler was the exception, who didn’t play the prior year but had a T15 here in the season before that)
- Each of the last 16 winners made the cut in their previous time playing this event
- 10 of the last 11 winners here were T55 on tour in proximity 200+ yards that year
- The five golfers that fit all these trends are: Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Tyrrell Hatton, and Keegan Bradley
- A lot of these trends could be skewed this week because there’s a ton of golfers in the field this year because its an elevated event that would normally not play this
- Internationals have won this event the last 5 of the last 7 years (Bryson and Scottie Scheffler are the ones that hadn’t)
- 14/25 players who finished T5 or better in the last four years here were internationals
- Only four Americans have won this event since 2006: Tiger (who’s won here 8 times in his career), Matt Every (twice), Bryson and Scheffler
- In 6 of the last 8 years, the winner has shot better than -10 on the Par 5s for the week
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 5 scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (29%)
Corollary Courses
- Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day won both events in the last 6 years
- Conway Farms Golf Club (BMW Championship) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day both won both events on years when the BMW was held at Conway Farms
- Wentworth Club (BMW PGA Championship – European Tour) – Hatton, Molinari and Rory won there recently who all won here the last four years
Field
120 golfers – loaded field since this is now an elevated event
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
Runner Up Last Year: Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland (-4)
One and Done: Will Zalatoris
One and Done Considerations: Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Tyrrell Hatton
Players
Rory McIlroy: 10600: +1280 – I just can’t stay off betting Rory even at this shitty of odds, first in my model and lines up perfectly for this event, fits every trend, immaculate course history with 13,10,5,6,1,4,27,11 finishes here, T29, T32,1,4,1,T4,4,T2,1,T8 finishes in his last ten events, 2nd in approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 15th in proximity 200+ yards, 58th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 1st in Par 5 scoring, 17th in SG: ARG, 65th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdies+ gained, 3rd in bogey avoidance
Will Zalatoris: 9400: +2450 – Plays well on hard courses, 38 and 10 finishes here the last two years, 4,MC,36,11,1,21,20,28,MC,2,5 finishes in his last eleven events, 7th in approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 53rd in proximity 200+ yards, 94th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 39th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 24th in Par 5 scoring, 54th in SG: ARG, 35th in putting, 19th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdies+ gained, 27th in bogey avoidance
Xander Schauffele: 9200: +2000 – Finished 24th in his only time here in 2020, 33,10,13,3,9,4,3,57,15,1,1 finishes in his last eleven events, 3rd in approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 9th in proximity 200+ yards, 12th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 36th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 75th in SG: ARG, 32nd in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 22nd in birdies+ gained, 8th in bogey avoidance
Patrick Cantlay: 9100: +3000 – First time playing this event, was incredible T2G his last event in his 3rd place finish at Genesis, 3,MC,26,16,2,7,1,57,2,8,4,13,14,3 finishes in his last 14 events, 31st in approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 3rd in proximity 200+ yards, 34th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 5th in Par 5 scoring, 27th in SG: ARG, 39th in putting, 2nd in opportunities gained, 8th in birdies+ gained, 9th in bogey avoidance
Tom Kim: 8400: +5500 – First time playing this event, 45,50,6,MC,5,11,25,1,54,13,1,7 finishes in his last twelve events, 4th in approach, 63rd in SG: OTT, 7th in proximity 200+ yards, 5th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 51st in Par 4 scoring, 14th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 54th in Par 5 scoring, 32nd in SG: ARG, 52nd in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 33rd in birdies+ gained, 37th in bogey avoidance
Tyrrell Hatton: 8300: +3500 – Fits every trend for the winners, former winner here, phenomenal course history here with 2,21,1,29,69,4 finihses here the last six years, 40,6,13,45,23,31,8,11,24,56 finishes in his last ten events, 50th in approach, 44th in SG: OTT, 56th in proximity 200+ yards, 120th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 25th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 29th in Par 5 scoring, 53rd in SG: ARG, 23rd in putting, 15th in opportunities gained, 19th in birdies+ gained, 18th in bogey avoidance
Gary Woodland: 7400: +8000 – I like the value here, has had success here with 5,MC,21,20,27,48,11,MC,MC finishes here, 9,42,62,MC,9 finishes in his last five events, 23rd in approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 5th in proximity 200+ yards, 1st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 99th in Par 4 scoring, 98th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 39th in Par 5 scoring, 115th in SG: ARG, 118th in putting, 15th in opportunities gained, 71st in birdies+ gained, 90th in bogey avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 scoring (5%)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 scoring (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities gained (5%)
Birdies+ gained (5%)
Bogey avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I’ve done pretty good on this event in the past. Last year I had 4/5 making the cut with T2,T20,T26 finishes. In 2021, I hit 2 T10s with 4/5 making the cut. In 2020 hit the winner and 3 T5s in my 5 picks
- Make sure you shop lines this week and use the boosts that all the books offer
Bets
Outrights
.8u Rory McIlroy (+1280)
.5u Xander Schauffele (+2000)
.4u Will Zalatoris (+2450)
.34u Patrick Cantlay (+3000)
.3u Tyrrell Hatton (+3500)
.2u Tom Kim (+5500)
.14u Gary Woodland (+8000)
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