After such a boring weekend at THE PLAYERS last week, with the boringest great golfer on the PGA Tour, Scottie Scheffler winning easily, we go to one of the toughest courses on Tour for the Valspar Championship at Copperhead to finish the Florida swing.
Course Breakdown
7340 yd. Par 71, 5 Par 3s and 4 Par 5s, averages to typically play as a top 5 most difficult course on tour (9th hardest last year), adjusted to par this actually is a deceptively long course, typically windy event (average ~15 mph), plotters course where precision and placement is more important than distance, overseeded Bermuda grass throughout, less than driver course on a majority of holes, 4 of the Par 3s are over 200 yds, all the Par 5s are longer than 550 yards, 7 of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yds, average fairways to hit (~62%), severe dog legs, tight tree lined fairways which get extremely narrow the farther from the tee box especially around the 300 yard mark so a lot of golfers will go less than driver on a majority of holes and the average driving distance is in the lowest 6 on Tour (271 yards vs. tour average 283 yards), lot of changes in elevation, 74 bunkers, 8 water hazards on 9 holes, harder than average greens to hit (~61% vs. tour average ~66%), firm smaller greens with average speeds with lots of back to front slopes, lowest birdie+ % of any course on tour, 2nd most 3 putts inside 5 feet since 2011 (behind Riviera), the rough got grown out to 3.75-4 inches this year from 3 inches last year, weather plays a pretty significant factor here
Tournament Notes
- The Snake Pit (holes 16-18) is one of the hardest 3 hole stretches on tour with 16 as one of the top 10 hardest holes on tour, no winner has ever played it better than even par
- 14 of the last 15 winners here had a T10 that season leading up to their victory
- 13 of the last 15 winners played this event at least twice before winning
- 10 of the last 12 winners here finished T45 or better in their last start before the Valspar
- 11 of the last 15 winners were not first time winners on the PGA Tour
- Each of the last 12 winners were T55 or better in bogie avoidance for the year leading up to their win
- 9 of the last 12 winners were T40 or better in approach for the year leading up to their win
- 11 of the last 15 winners were T45 or better in Par 5 scoring for the year leading up to their win
- The four golfers that fit all seven of the above trends are: Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, Adam Hadwin, and Justin Rose (Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Brian Harman, and Mark Hubbard fit 6/7 trends)
- 2 of the last 5 winners (over the last 7 years) here had a MC at this event the year prior to winning, so don’t put as much stock into some MCs here since its a very hard course
- Cut line has not been under par since 2003
Key Stats
Approach, SG: ARG, Bogie Avoidance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (23.8%), 200+ yards (23.1%), 150-175 yards (20.8%)
Field
144 golfers – pretty weak field strength
Defending Champion: Sam Burns (-17, in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Davis Riley (-17)
One and Done: Tommy Fleetwood
One and Done Considerations: Spieth, Fleetwood, Hadwin
Players
Tommy Fleetwood: 9800: +2500 – First in my model, fits 6 of the 7 trends for a winner of this event, think he could pick up his first win on American soil here, finished 16th here last year, 27,61,20,MC,4,53,4,4 finishes in his last eight events, 3rd in Approach, 77th in SG: OTT, 21st in Par 3 scoring, 27th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 33rd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 16th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 27th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 80th in Proximity 200+ yards, 19th in Bogie avoidance, 4th in SG: ARG, 41st in Putting
Justin Rose: 9600: +2000 – Fits every trend for a winner of this event, was fantastic T2G and on approach last week at THE PLAYERS, MC,5,MC,8 finishes here, 6,MC,MC,1,18,26,29,9 finishes in his last eight events, 20th in Approach, 52nd in SG: OTT, 10th in Par 3 scoring, 97th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 52nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 4th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 5th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 33rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 11th in Bogie avoidance, 59th in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting
Adam Hadwin: 9200: +2500 – Fits every trend for a winner of this event, former winner here in 2017 with 7,MC,MC,12,1,MC,71 finishes here, 13,MC,66,10,44,18,7,32 finishes in his last eight events, 6th in Approach, 49th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 3 scoring, 51st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 56th in Par 4 scoring, 89th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 19th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 79th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 87th in Proximity 200+ yards, 16th in Bogie avoidance, 36th in SG: ARG, 38th in Putting
Justin Suh: 8900: +4000 – Hasn’t missed a cut since December, was great T2G and on approach last week at THE PLAYERS, gained strokes on every category, first time playing this event, 6,24,5,40,20 finishes in his last five events, 15th in Approach, 46th in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 3 scoring, 79th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 38th in Par 4 scoring, 37th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 78th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 22nd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 46th in Bogie avoidance, 102nd in SG: ARG, 15th in Putting
Ben Griffin: 8400: +5000 – Keeps popping in my models every week, especially in weaker fields, first time playing this event, 35,14,21,MC,31,32,12,29,16,59,3 finishes in his last eleven events, 24th in Approach, 38th in SG: OTT, 11th in Par 3 scoring, 18th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 97th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 114th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 103rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in Bogie avoidance, 9th in SG: ARG, 26th in Putting
Robby Shelton: 7500: +9000 – MC here in his only appearance in 2021, MC,39,21,20,67,6 finishes in his last six events, 7th in Approach, 123rd in SG: OTT, 33rd in Par 3 scoring, 44th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 50th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 33rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 6th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 56th in Proximity 200+ yards, 36th in Bogie avoidance, 3rd in SG: ARG, 81st in Putting
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 3 scoring (10%)
Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
Bogie avoidance (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Slight advantage on DraftKings Showdown slates on players starting on 1 instead of 10, since they have a higher chance at getting the three birdies in a row streak. But this isn’t too much of an advantage with how difficult this course is.
- I cashed in on Sam Burns at +2200 here last year
Bets
Outrights
.5u Justin Rose (+2000)
.4u Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
.4u Adam Hadwin (+2500)
.26u Justin Suh (+4000)
.2u Ben Griffin (+5000)
.12u Robby Shelton (+9000)
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