Last night the Bruins let me down big time, losing me 1.88 units on my series bet for them to win in five and then I went 4-6-1 to lose another 2.16 units on my game bets for the night. Not great. Tonight we have another three Game 5s with big stakes and two elimination scenarios! Let’s bounce back!
Game 5: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning (7:00)
The Leafs might just do it. They might win a first round for their first time since 2004. This might be the year the streak of not getting out of the first round finally ends. It just feels different this year, despite this series being a few bad bounces away from being 3-1 in the Lightning’s favor, especially with the Bolts dominating most of the last three games. After their 4-3 comeback win in Game 3 in Tampa, Toronto mounted an even more insane comeback in Game 4, coming back from a 4-1 deficit in the third period, forcing overtime and then winning 5-4 on Alex Kerfoot’s game-winner on the power play in OT. The three time defending Eastern Conference champions are at the brink of elimination and although I feel like Toronto ends it tonight, I’m staying off a side in this game. I’m hammering the overs again in this game with this being an elimination scenario on the series I’ve absolutely loved overs in anyway. I’ll ladder the overs again in this game, just as I did yesterday in the Bruins game, especially in this series that has hit the over in every single game, easily. I’ll go with 3 units on the over 6.5, 2 units on the over 7, a unit on the over 7.5, and half a unit on the over 8.
Game 5: Devils vs. Rangers (7:30)
The first two games of this series didn’t live up to the hype in Jersey, as the Rangers dominated both of those games on the road with 5-1 wins. I thought the series was pretty much over at that point heading back to MSG but after getting a 2-1 overtime win in a grind of a Game 3 in New York and a huge 3-1 win in Game 4 on the road, this series is now tied 2-2 and a three-game series going into game 5 tonight in Jersey. In Game 4, both teams generated 23 shots but the Devils were the better team, outplaying the Rangers by an expected goal rate of 2.8-1.55 on their way to the win to even up the series. I think this pivotal Game 5 is such a toss up. Going into the series I leaned New Jersey would win it and now they definitely can, but the Rangers have played better. I cashed my bet for this series to go over 5.5 games but lost on it since I hedged it by flipping the script and betting pretty hard on the Rangers in both Game 3 and Game 4. I’ll stay off the side in this one. I do like the under though which I’ll take for half a unit.
Game 5: Golden Knights vs. Jets (10:00)
The Vegas Golden Knights after losing Game 1 at home to the Jets have since rattled off three straight wins and put Winnipeg on the brink of elimination tonight. I expect this series to end at the Fortress with Vegas being the first team to advance in the West as they wait for the Oilers and Kings to wrap up their series. Especially with both Josh Morrissey and now Mark Schiefele out with injury, I just can’t see a way that the Jets get it done to extend this series. William Carrier might also be back in the lineup tonight for Vegas. Not only am I letting my Knights future and series bet ride, I’m doubling down with another 2 units on Vegas in regulation and since this is an elimination game, a unit on the over. IT’S KNIGHT TIME!
Game Bets
3u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 6.5 (-110)
2u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 7 (+148)
1u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 7.5 (+210)
.5u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 8 (+285)
.5u Devils/Rangers under 5.5 (-120)
2u Golden Knights in regulation (-112)
1u Golden Knights/Jets over 5.5 (-120)
Series Bets
1u Bruins to win series in six games or less (-177)
1.5u Stars to win series (-150)
.5u Stars/Wild over 6.5 games (+220)
1.5u Oilers to win series in six games or less (-112)
1u Devils to win series (-125)
2u Maple Leafs to win series (-177)
1u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 5.5 games (-162)
1.5u Golden Knights to win series (-175)
2u Oilers to win series (-130)
2u Avalanche to win series (-148)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
.5u Minnesota Wild – Stanley Cup Champions (+2000)
1u Minnesota Wild – Western Conference Champions (+800)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
Record: 766-604-34 (-31.9 units)
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A Town's Zone 