Despite there being four goals in the first period, somehow last night’s Oilers and Golden Knights game didn’t hit the over, so I lost 1.9 units on that. Today we have three NHL games, let’s crush it.
Game 3: Devils vs. Hurricanes (3:30)
This series has not gone well for the Devils. The Hurricanes dominated Game 1 at home on Wednesday night, getting a 5-1 win in a game that New Jersey never stood a chance in. Carolina outshot the Devils 23-18 and outplayed Jersey by an expected goal rate of 3.97-2.11. Game 2 wasn’t any better for the Devils on Friday night, as they lost 6-1 to go down 2-0 in the series. They did play significantly better than in Game 1, but still got outshot 35-29 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 4.02-2.16.
This is a must win game tonight for the Devils. They cannot lose at home to go down 3-0 in the series or this series is over. Along with the road struggles for the Canes, I expect Lindy Ruff to make the right adjustments for New Jersey to get the series back on track with a win on home ice. I’d lean they win it but especially with my series bet, I’ll just let it ride here and stay off a side in this game. Game 1 of this series should have stayed under, with a pointless empty net goal to hit the over by half a point late in the game. The under looked great in Game 2 until a fleury of goals for Carolina late in the second period, and that hit the over too. I’d lean the under again, but I’m staying off it. (With me staying off this game, you could pretty much guarantee the Devils win and the under hits, just my luck).
Game 3: Panthers vs. Maple Leafs (6:30)
Despite playing as the better team in both previous games in this series, the Leafs after getting out of the first round for the first time since 2004 look to be back to their expectations…of choking in the playoffs despite being better than their competition. In Game 1 of this series, the Panthers surprised a lot of people, continuing the momentum of beating the Bruins, as they picked up a huge 4-2 win on the road. The Leafs outshot Florida 36-28 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 5.8-2.8, but with a huge performance in goal from Sergei Bobrovsky, they couldn’t get the win. Toronto didn’t adjust in Game 2, still trying to be too fancy and lost 3-2 in Game 2 at home to get into a 2-0 hole going back to Florida. In Game 2, they scored twice in the first 5:10 of the game, blew that lead to go down 3-2 in the game just 1:06 into the second period and after not seeing any more goals from either team for the remainder of the game, it’s looking like Toronto’s fucked. They outshot the Panthers 37-29 and outplayed Florida by an expected goal rate of 4.12-2.89, yet still couldn’t win again. They were bad on the defensive blue line and just tried too much rather than simplifying their offensive play. This is a do or die game for the Leafs tonight. They have to win on the road or this series is completely over. I’d lean that they do, but fuck betting on this team anymore. I’ll let my Leafs in six bet ride here (which is pretty much a guaranteed loss for me at this point, unless they really turn it around), but I won’t be doubling down on it. I still can’t stay off the overs though in this series, which I’ll take for a unit.
Game 3: Kraken vs. Stars (9:30)
This series has been pretty fun through two games. We started the series with a wild Game 1. My under on that game was dead in the first 15:20 of the game, as the Kraken got up 4-2 early, with Jake Oettinger having his worst period of the playoffs, giving up four goals. After that period, Oettinger didn’t let another goal in and with an incredible four goal performance from Joe Pavelski, the Stars tied it up to force overtime. Yanni Gourde ruined the comeback though 12:17 into OT for the 5-4 Seattle win on the road to take a 1-0 series lead. The Kraken outshot Dallas 44-35 but the Stars outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.26-2.78. The Stars bounced right back though in Game 2, coming up with a big win for me as they took down Seattle 4-2. They were the far better team, outshooting the Kraken 37-27 and absolutely dominated them by an expected goal rate of 5.76-1.87. The Stars are the better team in this series, they’ve played better in both games and I expect them to win tonight on the road to get home ice back. I’ll take Dallas for 1.5 units. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
1u Maple Leafs/Panthers over 6.5 (-135)
1.5u Stars ML (-150)
Series Bets
2u Stars to win series in six games or less (+105)
1.5u Maple Leafs to win series in six games or less (+120)
3u Devils to win series (-124)
2u Stars to win series (-120)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
2u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+815)
Record: 784-638-35 (-55.1 units)
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